DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Valspar Championship Golf Advice (2023)

March 15, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Valspar Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Scottie Scheffler continues to walk as the gentle giant of the PGA Tour, slaying all competitors in his path but doing so with a humble and faith-following demeanor.

For the big-hitting American, the victory marks his sixth win since February of 2022, catapulting the progression to world number-one status quicker than anyone would have imagined before he took down The Waste Management for his first title last season.

Golf is often riddled with volatility and difficulty when it comes to getting yourself across the finish line, but the sport is in good hands when we look at Scheffler and Jon Rahm holding court weekly at the center of these events.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Valspar Championship

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Valspar Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

• $149.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.

Field

Field Size: 144 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 25 Entrants: Five

Last Five Winners Of TPC Sawgrass

Expected Cut-Line

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)

7,360 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded)

Before I get into my breakdown of the facility, I do want to note that while Copperhead is geologically located in the sunshine state, the tangible feel of the property should give us a much different style of golf than we have seen over the past few weeks.

Measuring in at a respectable 7,360 yards, Innisbrook Resort is one of the more challenging venues we get on tour yearly for a few core reasons. Seventy-four bunkers and six holes that present legitimate water hazards are littered throughout the property, providing headache and despair for the field at all turns. We see that emphasized with its sinister nature of removing certain aspects from your game -- all while demanding a complete tee-to-green skill set for those that find success.

The difference between this venue and other Florida tracks stems from the tree-lined essence of the layout. Twenty-four-yard fairways and three-inch rough will condense the grounds into this compact off-the-tee test, and we see all that highlighted by the one key variable that makes it overly complicated since it removes a driver from the players' repertoire. Golfers will be required to work the ball in both directions, and the reduced lay-ups sneakily add hidden distance to the track that we might not see upfront. There are an abnormal five par-threes that stretch over 200 yards, not to mention all the par-fives are extremely lengthy. Add the mixture of those two factors and the variety of par-four holes that you will find at the course, and it is easy to understand why 67.8% of second shots take place from 150 yards and beyond.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model. (You can see only the 2023 season when you make a copy).

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)

Strokes Gained Total Wind (5%)

Weighted Scoring (25%)

Weighted Scrambling (7.5%)

Total Driving + OTT (10%)

GIR + ATG (10%)

Weighted Prox (7.5%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Early thoughts on the group:  If you are looking for a glaring fade candidate in this range, you aren't going to find such a simple answer. That doesn't mean I don't have a preset order that I prefer these golfers in for the week (Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth and Matthew Fitzpatrick), but ownership will likely end up being the tiebreaker to settle any of these close calls. Thomas' form isn't quite as shaky as the results indicate, and I believe we are in a situation where he is a hot putter away from winning another event.

Options In Pool On Monday. Names Will Become Further Condensed Throughout The Week: Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns -  If a decision had to be made today, Spieth would get the short end of the stick and get cut.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Early thoughts on the group:  The ownership totals always start too high on my end until we get more information. Still, the trio of Tommy Fleetwood, Adam Hadwin and Justin Rose are trending toward being top five or 10 golfers on the slate for popularity. If that is the case, I will only play one of those names (likely Hadwin), and I believe there is a nice leverage opportunity present for Brian Harman -- a golfer that has gone ice-cold lately.

Options In Pool On Monday. Names Will Become Further Condensed Throughout The Week: Justin Rose (will get cut if we don't see an ownership discount), Keegan Bradley, Adam Hadwin, Brian Harman

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Early thoughts on the group: Taylor Moore and K.H. Lee were the only two golfers to grade as a positive value against all different markets in this range. Moore has been trending toward a high-end result the entire season, and an event that allows him to use weighted total driving and wind play might be the perfect spot for him to enter the winner's circle.

Options In Pool On Monday. Names Will Become Further Condensed Throughout The Week: Justin Suh (ownership looks gross), Maverick McNealy, Taylor Moore, K.H. Lee

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

The list removes all players outside the top 65 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside, and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days. (Anyone -10 spots or higher in ownership got removed to condense this list). We can make changes in the Final DraftKings article to account for new information.

That is obviously a massive group of names for us to whittle down and consider over these next few days.

Nate Lashley, Robby Shelton, Victor Perez, Akshay Bhatia, Stephan Jaeger, Nick Taylor, Alex Smalley, Joseph Bramlett, Ludvig Aberg, Tyler Duncan, Ryan Gerard and Harry Hall would likely be my favorite golfers near the top of the board. 

Ownership is still too early into the week to take much from those percentages above, but we will get that entire list down more on Wednesday.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

All the players below were inside the top 60 in one of the two iterations of my sheet and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run. (anyone -10 spots or higher in ownership got removed to condense this list). That took away options like Charley Hoffman, who my model did like if the ownership can normalize.

We will condense this list further as the week progresses, but we have a handful of interesting dart throws from those names. I don't want to remove too many options from that list early since ownership will be a big factor for leverage. Also, please note that some of the numbers are being driven by limited data. I am not sure how much I trust the John VanDetLaan sample size.

My two favorite plays early in the week would be Augusto Nunez and Zach Johnson.

Favorite Play Per Range:

$10,000 - Justin Thomas ($10,900)
$9,000 - Brian Harman ($9,100)
$8,000 - Taylor Moore ($8,300)
$7,000 - Stephan Jaeger (Bet) ($7,800)
$6,000 - Augusto Nunez ($6,600)

Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks