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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Ryder Cup
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- The Ryder Cup
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
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- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
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In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
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Marco Simone Golf Club
7,255 Yards - Par 71
We are going to find out more about Marco Simone throughout the week. However, the early returns look like we are getting a course that will attempt to turn the USA's driving distance into a thing of the past with the gnarly rough throughout the property.
It is not to say that some of Europe's top guns aren't affected by this construction as well, but it seems like more of what it does is neutralize the mid-to-bottom of this board and presents a shift in upside for some of your Hatton's, Fleetwood's and Fitzpatrick's of the team.
The steadier build for the entire squad presents a better upside if they can adequately deploy names like Ludvig Aberg and Nicolai Hojgaard in best ball, and the alternate shot boost they receive across the board is why Europe has been so hard to beat when the USA goes overseas in the past.
I do have questions that will need to be answered on the American side since Zach Johnson has invited players for specific pairings that may not be as ideal as believed for this track. Still, sports get played on the field rather than through a simulation. The ability to adjust will be crucial for the USA if they do find pairings like Spieth/Thomas not delivering how they should early in the contest.
I will give the USA the slightest of an advantage when comparing all 12 players against each other. However, the current odds still have me leaning toward Europe since I am afraid the glaring issues like Spieth/Thomas in four-ball + Koepka in alternate shot won't be properly accounted for by Zach Johnson. A few mistakes here and there could prove costly for a team that likely didn't bring their best fits to Marco Simone.
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
DraftKings Prices
We don't need to complicate how we run through the board. Let's just start at the top from standard DraftKings pricing and talk a little about each player. This is the definition of playing armchair quarterback without knowing the exact pairings and thoughts of both captains
Scottie Scheffler - Captain Price $14,700 - Regular Price $9,800
The USA team has this problem of specific options not being the best course fit for various aspects. It goes back to why I believe the wrong selections were made when rounding out the team, but Sam Burns was one of the significant fallers because of the reduction he received in distance. Burns will benefit from getting paired with his friend Scottie Scheffler (that alone makes him playable in DFS). Still, a reduction is felt in my model for Scheffler the more these two are forced into action. It doesn't mean they don't sweep their matches because Burns is a glorified version of some of the other question marks I had on this team, but it is worth noting when Scheffler is the most expensive player on the board being tied to a player 20th out of 24 in pricing. I would prefer playing Burns as a pivot in salary if I wanted to go down that route.
Rory McIlroy - Captain Price $14,400 - Regular Price $9,600
If Europe wants to win, they likely would be best served to aggressively lean on Rory. I know there is one side of the aisle out there that thinks Marco Simone will be too grueling of a walk for players to get in all five matches, but there wasn't a golfer on the European squad who graded as well in all three formats as the Irishman. My model believed McIlroy was the top four-ball player in the contest because of his high-end nature, and his complete game should pair well with any member of their squad. The price is fair, making McIlroy my preferred choice when starting near the top for Europe.
Jon Rahm - Captain Price $13,800 - Regular Price $9,200
I don't think it hurts Europe horribly if we see Rahm as an option that only plays in four of five matches. The Spaniard is the type of player that can get hot in either sense of that word, meaning I wouldn't pull him if he catches fire early, but I'd expect to see him in both four-ball battles and potentially one foursome. That extra confidence I have in Rory to stay out there for all matches does push me in his direction over Rahm and his current form when directly comparing their prices together.
Patrick Cantlay - Captain Price $13,500 - Regular Price $9,000
If Rory McIlroy is my favorite high-priced option for the European squad, Patrick Cantlay would be that choice for the USA. My model ranked him second in projected weighted strokes gained total, adding to an overall scoring acumen that graded him top-three for both birdies and bogey avoidance.
Viktor Hovland - Captain Price $13,200 - Regular Price $8,800
Hovland feels like he is in a spot where he will be asked to carry the load for five matches. Beyond anything else, it makes him playable since sitting is a surefire way to transform into a negative EV option. Still, the statistics for him land him as a fair value because of his strong par-four scoring. I expect Hovland to be the chalk of Europe at his price, but I understand wanting to get exposure to him if you believe Europe will win.
Brooks Koepka - Captain Price $12,900 - Regular Price $8,600
Nobody burns me more than Brooks Koepka, but I will continue giving him ammunition during these write-ups. I like the upside potential he presents in Best Ball because of his total driving potential and proximity numbers. However, some of that appeal dwindles in an alternate shot format because of the alpha mentality that makes him play with someone else. The numbers seem to agree in my sheet without that factor being included, and it is hard to know where he is with his game when not playing many events.
Tommy Fleetwood - Captain Price $12,600 - Regular Price $8,400
The price on Fleetwood may push some in a different direction, but let's not forget the magic of Moliwood a few years ago. It remains to be seen who will supply the Moli to Fleetwood this year, but Fleetwood's playability in all areas of the Ryder Cup shouldn't be ignored. I don't have any issues considering the Englishman for the captain spot if you want to get unique. He is one of those players that could sneakily play all matches if he gets hot early.
Xander Schauffele - Captain Price $12,300 - Regular Price $8,200
You aren't going to get two players more in tune than Cantlay/Schauffele are for foursomes because of how similar of production you get from their games. While that may lead some to take the discount in price that we get here to drop a little further down the board to Schauffele, I have a feeling the team will be more inclined to pull Xander in four-ball if any kinks in the armor from the duo begin to show. I'd rather pay up and take Cantlay's overall playability for that reason than get stuck with the cheaper option that doesn't get in as many matches.
Collin Morikawa - Captain Price $12,000 - Regular Price $8,000
My concern isn't Morikawa's price or game for Marco Simone. Instead, it would be if he gets boxed out for these friendship pairings and left without a partner early on day one. I'd have a hard time benching him in Best Ball because of his scoring nature for the track, plus the accuracy/proximity numbers only heighten his alternate shot production since he is an impressive teammate who works well with many options. I am just a little afraid that Zach Johnson underutilizes one of his top five options.
Tyrrell Hatton - Captain Price $11,700 - Regular Price $7,800
Hatton is a strong projected producer for Best Ball and carries some alternate shot appeal when placed next to someone like Tommy Fleetwood. We will see how many matches we get from him at this price tag, but the par-four scoring ability checks many of the boxes you would want to see. I prefer Fitzpatrick when directly comparing the two, but I do understand the appeal behind Hatton if he gets tied down to a partner like Fleetwood all week.
Max Homa - Captain Price $11,400 - Regular Price $7,600
The more Max Homa plays, the better the USA becomes with their win equity projection. Homa ranked first in my model for expected strokes gained total for this course, generating an upside for the price that made him the ultimate alternate shot partner. I could see Zach Johnson not knowing what to do with Morikawa/Homa and just pairing them together here and there, but I am down for the duo becoming the country's secret weapon tandem. The California ties have paired them together in the past, and I'll likely be stacking both together frequently. Homa is my top play on the slate.
Jordan Spieth - Captain Price $11,100 - Regular Price $7,400
Spieth in alternate shot format has its upside, but please don't pair Thomas/Spieth together in four-ball. That is a disaster waiting to happen and could prove costly to the USA squad. I'll be fading Spieth at the price and looking to take him on in four-ball.
Matthew Fitzpatrick - Captain Price $10,800 - Regular Price $7,200
Fitzpatrick placed second in hard-to-hit-fairways + thick rough production and carried a top 10 mark for weighted scoring because of his strong totals across the board for all three par ranges. It will take the right partner for him to excel in Best Ball, but his steady nature will be ideal for an alternate shot format. I keep hoping we get two of Fitzpatrick/Hatton/Fleetwood together in some capacity.
Ludvig Aberg - Captain Price $10,800 - Regular Price $7,200
My guess would be that Aberg plays both Best Ball matches and sits during alternate shot. Maybe he finds a way to slip in next to someone near the top of Europe's lineup for another match, but the Aberg/Hojgaard combination will get their shot to go low with less pressure. I wouldn't even be shocked if they were placed together to compete.
Rickie Fowler - Captain Price $10,500 - Regular Price $7,000
Does Rickie Fowler experience the Tony Finau treatment, where he isn't initially paired with any partner but has the demeanor to fill in for any struggling person on the team? I don't know how many matches we see him in this week, but I do feel confident in his fit for Marco Simone when he does tee it up, especially in Best Ball. I will be playing Fowler.
Justin Thomas - Captain Price $10,200 - Regular Price $6,800
I hope Justin Thomas proves me wrong, but I almost worry just as much about Jordan Spieth at this venue as I do about the shaky form of Thomas. Can the tandem strike lightning in a bottle? Maybe. But I am going to make both beat me and will try to take them on in four-ball.
Justin Rose - Captain Price $9,000 - Regular Price $6,000
If Europe wanted to use a decent percentage of Justin Rose, I would prefer them doing it with one of their stars being partnered next to him over anything else. Without knowing their plans, I land somewhere in the middle for his playability.
Wyndham Clark - Captain Price $8,700 - Regular Price $5,800
Rumors of Wyndham Clark playing with Brooks Koepka does give some optimism for Best Ball, although I continue to find myself mostly uninterested in most markets.
Shane Lowry- Captain Price $8,100 - Regular Price $5,400
Lowry is more name recognition than performance at this moment. Europe would be wise to hide him until singles.
Sam Burns - Captain Price $7,800 - Regular Price $5,200
I talked about why Sam Burns made sense to play in the Scottie Scheffler section, but I wouldn't be shocked if Burns ended up being the highest-owned player on the slate. I am going to pass on what feels like a fair price.
Nicolai Hojgaard - Captain Price $7,200 - Regular Price $4,800
I could see Hojgaard gaining a few points from this experience because of his birdie-making potential. Win once or twice in Best Ball and add in a singles victory, and you all of a sudden can get two points (or more) if everything works out ideally. I am not playing any of these options super aggressively because of the lack of matches upfront that will be available, but Hojgaard has somewhere between 0-3 points in his range of outcomes.
Brian Harman - Captain Price $6,900 - Regular Price $4,600
Outside of Max Homa, Brian Harman was the best value on the board. I'd probably remove him from consideration in Best Ball because of some of his flaws, but you aren't going to find a steadier partner that can get you in and out of trouble for a course that demands accuracy. Three points is within grasp if he sweeps those two outings and wins in singles.
Sepp Straka - Captain Price $6,300 - Regular Price $4,200
Straka has a respectable return for weighted strokes gained total and is the top-ranked putter in the field from 5-10 feet. My model liked him a little for alternate shot because of his combination of accuracy and proximity. Pair that with a name like Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood or Rahm and there was a lot to like about him as a sneaky choice.
Robert MacIntyre - Captain Price $6,000 - Regular Price $4,000
I don't think we will see much of Robert MacIntyre. My model ranked him last of all 24 participants, and there wasn't a golfer on the European squad who created a lower win equity move for the team when he entered the lineup at a higher rate.
My Favorite Options To Consider As Captains
Rory McIlroy - Captain Price $14,400 - Regular Price $9,600
Patrick Cantlay - Captain Price $13,500 - Regular Price $9,000
Viktor Hovland - Captain Price $13,200 - Regular Price $8,800
Tommy Fleetwood - Captain Price $12,600 - Regular Price $8,400
Collin Morikawa - Captain Price $12,000 - Regular Price $8,000
Max Homa - Captain Price $11,400 - Regular Price $7,600
Matthew Fitzpatrick - Captain Price $10,800 - Regular Price $7,200
Best Of The Rest
Rickie Fowler - Captain Price $10,500 - Regular Price $7,000
Brian Harman - Captain Price $6,900 - Regular Price $4,600
Automatic Fades
Brooks Koepka - Captain Price $12,900 - Regular Price $8,600
Jordan Spieth - Captain Price $11,100 - Regular Price $7,400
Justin Thomas - Captain Price $10,200 - Regular Price $6,800
Shane Lowry- Captain Price $8,100 - Regular Price $5,400
Robert MacIntyre - Captain Price $6,000 - Regular Price $4,000
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
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