
Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 Charles Schwab. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
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Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings - The Charles Schwab
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Charles Schwab
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
- Units: +340.903 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2025
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
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You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Let's Look at the Stats
Stat | Colonial Country Club | PGA Average |
Driving Distance | 278 | 284 |
Driving Accuracy | 56% | 61% |
GIR Percentage | 63% | 65% |
Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.43 | 0.55 |
Field
Field Size: 133
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 3
Last Five Winners of The Charles Schwab
2024 | Davis Riley | -14 |
2023 | Emiliano Grillo | -8 |
2022 | Sam Burns | -9 |
2021 | Jason Kokrak | -14 |
2020 | Daniel Berger | -15 |
Expected Cut-Line at The Charles Schwab
2024 | 3 |
2023 | 2 |
2022 | 2 |
2021 | 2 |
2020 | -1 |
Colonial Country Club
7,209 - Par 70 - Greens Bentgrass
You can find my premium course breakdown in my Vegas Report this week.
First Look Into Outright Bets
Player | Price |
Aaron Rai | 45 |
Eric Cole | 125 |
Akshay Bhatia | 75 |
J.J. Spaun | 55 |
Harry Hall | 75 |
Tom Kim | 140 |
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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Favorite Gross Mid-Tier Dart Throws
Discussing why a 50% owned Scottie Scheffler will win this tournament is very easy. Instead, I want to highlight a few golfers that my numbers currently have under 10% and dive deeper into why their profiles present high-end appeal (even if the floor remains a little murky).
If you are expecting a 3-for-3 made-cut return on these names, you might want to think again. However, the ceiling will have me using them higher than the public.
Akshay Bhatia ($8,000)
There wasn't a more significant discrepancy in my sheet for upside versus safety than what it projected out of Akshay Bhatia.
Bhatia's floor presented this head-scratching profile of no finish better than 56th here in two tries, which compounds with the answer of him not posting a top-40 finish in two months. All of that leaves something to be desired for a golfer who has shown immense upside potential when given his top form, but what should we expect this week?
My model ranked Bhatia fourth when extrapolating out all courses that fit the mold of Colonial Country Club's design, not to mention that his ninth-place rank for Weighted Proximity, Expected Putting, and GIR Rate intrigued me most since that blueprint is typically how you find high-end success at this event.
Consider this a low-floor target, but one that has slate-breaking upside.
Tom Kim ($7,600)
I have become the king of fading Tom Kim at every turn. In reality, I couldn't tell you the last time my model found intrigue in backing the once-heralded youngster who has recently entered a dry patch in his career.
Interestingly, Kim's profile has been awful in non-important events this year, while staying sub-par during the high-end tournaments. None of that is encouraging for a letdown situation post-major, but does the data give any room for optimism?
You won't hear me writing home about a 71st at the PGA, 52nd at the Masters, and 42nd at the Players, but my hope is that Colonial's setup places him back into a spot of comfort since he has thrived at similar tests.
Yes, I use data that stretches for a longer duration than 99.9% in the space, but Kim's first-place rank from 125-175 yards (in the entire field...) with his irons and top-six grades at similar courses and shorter Par 70 locations is intriguing for someone who has shown immense win equity early in his career.
Harry Hall ($8,000)
This doesn't feel quite as gross to me as the opening two players, but I will take any reason I can to talk about my alma mater of UNLV.
Hall's wind expertise is always on display when you give him these blustery Texas courses, and the key to this entire puzzle might be the MASSIVE increase he receives for Weighted Proximity versus his baseline projection.
My model graded Hall 28th for Weighted Proximity because of his uptick from 125-175 yards, a range that delivers eight percent more shots. That is a return I have used in the past to find upside on a golfer like Sahith Theegala at the Fortinent when he won his first title, and perhaps it is enough for Hall to follow suit and finally get himself over the hump when you realize the Rebel star typically grades outside the top 100 for me with his irons on most weeks.
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