DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The FedExCup St. Jude Championship With Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Wyndham Clark and More Golf Advice (2024)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The FedExCup St. Jude Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

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• The FedEx St. Jude Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
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Field

Field Size: 70
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 18

Last Five Winners of the St. Jude

Expected Cut-Line At The St. Jude

(No cut this week)

TPC Southwind

7,244 Yards - Par 70 - Bermuda

I will break the course down further on my podcasts this week!

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green (30%)

Weighted Strokes Gained: Putting (10%)

Strokes Gained Total Fast Bermuda (10%)

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total Par 70s (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: TPC (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Opportunities Created + Made Putts (10%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Golfers to Land in the Top 65 of the Field for All Categories

(Top 35 this week) - I excluded pure putting

Somewhat short list this week. I am interested to see where ownership lands for a handful of these choices.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I thought this was a similar spot to the Olympics when I liked Jon Rahm. Notice that event still ended with the inevitable of Scottie Scheffler winning, but my goal during most of these events where Scheffler and Schauffele tee it up is to figure out if anyone else approaches similar win equity through any iteration of my model.

This is not to say that Aberg is as likely to take down this tournament as either of those opponents. However, my model placed Aberg third in this field for Expected Tee-To-Green, second for Par 70 Scoring, and first for Opportunities Created + Make Percentage. That last category is just a fancy way of predicting what player is going to make the most birdies when you merge in iron play and historical Bermuda putting.

Everyone in this section, from top to bottom, will be playable, although my route to getting different will be going overweight to the Swede because of his high-end marks and likely contrarian nature to a build since most people are going to choose Morikawa when attempting to save a few bucks.

Morikawa is my safest player on the board for the price and will be playable, but let's shoot for the leverage upside when possible.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I am not saying you have to play all three (or even two in a single build), but any combination that features a single name between Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland and Hideki Matsuyama will naturally create leverage compared to other lineups.

Hovland is a forgotten commodity after posting a disastrous 2024 campaign that has seen him provide one top-15 finish all season. I realize the concerns that are beyond the time we have here today, but the 26-year-old finally showed a little approach production at the Olympics, landing as a top 15 projected scorer if he delivered a baseline short-game expectation.

What that short-game expectation actually is after regressing to his old self around the greens is unknown, but these are pure putting complexes that could do the same thing that my model believed would happen at the Olympics: enhance his ball-striking and reduce his scrambling because of the water. While it didn't happen in France, I will buy back in one more time.

I know the floor when jumping into the mix, but Hovland's upside is worth a swing after gaining off-the-tee in eight straight starts. Perhaps the game is closer than one might believe.

A water-heavy course that shrinks the winning total and enhances approach play? Sign me up with Hidkei Matsuyaama.

I was a pretty big proponent at the Olympics that Matsuyama got the very most out of his four rounds to skew some of the results, but it is worth noting that Hideki has been consistently overachieving with the flat stick this season, including gaining five of his last seven tournaments. Three of those occurrences helped him to land a top-10.

With nine of the last 12 winners in Memphis leading the event tee-to-green, anything he does get with the putter can only be viewed as a plus result.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

We will save some of these takes for the next 24-48 hours. I'd like to see where ownership lands.

I did bet Justin Thomas -110 over Jason Day, and faded Tony Finau in a matchup for those trying to figure out where my early exposure has landed early on Monday, but it seems likely that we are going to have ownership massively shift against someone that showed as a neutral value (or better).

There are a handful of different options to consider in this range.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

The dislike around Wyndham Clark has gone too far, which we saw with people's disdain for him after his slow start at the Olympics. 

My model believed Wyndham's fair finish in France should have been fifth place (after including his atrocious first round). 

Sometimes, you have to stick up for those who have been there for you in the past, and after he has provided multiple triple-digit wins for us in the past, I will do my due diligence here to give Clark an extra boost to start the playoffs.

Things are looking right again after fading Day and playing Clark in this article.

$6,000 Options to Consider

Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):

$10,000+ - Ludvig Aberg
$9,000+ - Hideki Matsuyama/Viktor Hovland
$8,000+ -
$7,000+ - Wyndham Clark
$6,000+ - 

Fade In Each Section (Wednesday):

I will update this when ownership shows up in 24-48 hours

$10,000+ - 
$9,000+ -
$8,000+ -
$7,000+ -
$6,000+ -

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