RADIO
Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! Let me kick off this week's edition by wishing you all a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday season! We knew going into Week 15 that the slate was going to be a wild one, with two games postponed and multiple COVID-related issues. It was reflected in DFS scoring, as Week 15 proved to be one of the lowest-scoring slates we'd seen in quite some time.
As we turn our attention to Week 16, it appears that we can expect more of the same COVID craziness as last week. We have several legitimate superstars that are currently on the reserve/COVID list, including Kansas City's dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill & Travis Kelce, Minnesota's Dalvin Cook, and L.A.'s Austin Ekeler. The advice for this week remains the same as in Week 15...flexibility will likely be the key to success. So, I advise you guys to view all recommendations as "tentative" due to the ever-changing injury/COVID situations throughout the week. Due to the nature of this slate, please check back here at RotoBaller for late-breaking DFS news before finalizing your DraftKings lineups.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 16. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 16 DFS Picks
Justin Herbert - LAC @ HOU ($7,200)
It's a weird week at the QB position, as the three highest-priced signal callers on the slate all face tough matchups against units that are ranked inside the top-10 in Pass Defense DVOA. If we want to get technical, the same could be said of L.A.'s Justin Herbert, who is set to square off against a Houston Texans squad that stands 10th in Pass Defense DVOA. However, while statistics are all fine and good, I would argue that Herbert's matchup against the Texans is better than those of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Tom Brady. Houston is allowing the sixth-highest yards per attempt in the league. It looks as though the Chargers will be without Austin Ekeler (COVID) this week, which might tilt the coaching staff towards relying on the dependable Herbert. It's not as if they need any excuses anyway, as Herbert stands third in the NFL in pass attempts this season and has attempted 31 or more passes in every single game this year, racking up seven games of over 300 yards along the way.
Matthew Stafford - LAR @ MIN ($6,700)
I feel as though I write Matthew Stafford up almost too frequently, but good plays are good plays. I have little doubt that Stafford is indeed a good play yet again this week in a fire-meets-gasoline matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams signal-caller has feasted on weak secondaries this season and the Vikes certainly fit the bill, as they've allowed the second-most DK points per game to the QB position this season, as well as 272.4 passing yards per game on average. The terrific thing about targeting Minny is that not only is their secondary suspect, but their offense is very capable of putting points on the board. It's a combination that creates a terrific environment for DFS purposes and one that I expect Stafford to take full advantage of this week.
SATURDAY UPDATE: There's really no need to get fancy at QB this week...Mahomes, Allen, & Brady are all reasonable talent > matchup GPP options, while Philly's Jalen Hurts rushing floor makes him an always-viable option. It looks as though Tyler Huntley will once again get the start for Baltimore. Can he build off his monster Week 15 performance?
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 16 DFS Picks
Alexander Mattison - LAR @ MIN ($6,800)
This is a DraftKings article, so we don't spend much time talking about FanDuel here. However, the pricing situation between the two sites with Alexander Mattison - who will get the start this week with Dalvin Cook on the reserve/COVID list - is a unique one and deserves to be touched on. Mattison is basically free on FD at a laughable $5.5k, while DK has him priced at $6.8k. This could lead to players that use both sites choosing to get their Mattison exposure on FD rather than DK. Just an interesting little nugget to consider.
As far as a pure DFS play, Mattison has smashed when called upon this year. In three starts for Cook, he's posted 448 total yards two TDs. Those eye-opening numbers can be attributed to Minnesota's willingness to trust him as a true workhorse back in spot starts. Mattison has garnered a mind-blowing 76 carries and 16 catches in his three starts this season.
The matchup against the L.A. Rams defensive front is a tough one - the Rams stand fourth in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA - but the combination of Mattison's role in the absence of Cook and his price tag makes him a near must play this week.
James Robinson - JAX @ NYJ ($5,900)
The RB position has been crazy over the last few weeks, as we seem to either be faced with tons of great options or no one we want to play. It is the former this week and there are options galore at running back. James Robinson was the uber-chalk last week for several reasons and delivered 88 total yards and a score on 24 total opportunities against the Houston Texans. Somehow, he's in perhaps an even better spot this week against the lowly New York Jets, a team that just let Duke Freakin' Johnson run for 107 yards and two TDs last week! The Jets ranks dead last in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA and have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to the RB position by a wiiiiide margin. Basically, Robinson is just as good a DFS play as he was last week, but he will come in with reduced ownership due to all of the viable RB options on this slate.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Welcome to Value Town, Population: Running Backs! The combination of injuries and COVID have hit the RB position especially hard, which has opened up some extreme salary-saving options on the Week 16 slate. With Austin Ekeler expected to be sidelined for the Chargers, Justin Jackson - at just $4.2k - is expected to inherit the bulk of the backfield work in a dream matchup against the Houston Texans. No one seems to be interested in Cordarrelle Patterson even though he's playing the Detroit Lions. Leonard Fournette and Gio Bernard are both on IR for Tampa Bay, which means Ronald Jones II will be the man for the Bucs. KC never seems to give CEH the ball, but Pittsburgh has been repeatedly gashed on the ground. David Montgomery and Miles Sanders stand out as strong options with sub-$6k price tags.
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 16 DFS Picks
Cooper Kupp - LAR @ MIN ($9,100)
If there's ever been a week that you can roster somewhat comfortably roster Cooper Kupp and his hefty price tag, it's this one, as there is value aplenty on the Week 16 slate. We've already touched on this Rams vs Vikings game a couple of times in this article, but it bears repeating just how desirable this game environment is. A tight spread, high projected total, and a Minnesota secondary that has been routinely torched. It’s not as if Kupp needs much help from a matchup perspective - he's on pace to break the all-time NFL record for receiving yards in a season - but this one against a Minnesota squad that is allowing the most DK points per game to the WR position in the NFL certainly increases his already-strong chances of breaking the slate.
Tyler Johnson - TB @ CAR ($3,900)
Many will gravitate to Tampa's Antonio Brown this week, and while Brown is certainly a strong play, I'm interested in digging even deeper into this Bucs receiving corps with Tyler Johnson. Working under the assumption that Mike Evans doesn't play this week, I believe Johnson will be the closest thing to a direct replacement for the injured Chris Godwin, as he should slide directly into Godwin's slot role in this Tampa Bay offense. He was targeted seven times after Godwin exited last week's matchup against the New Orleans Saints and comes into this slate both cheaper than AB and with a fraction of the projected ownership. Johnson has been buried at the bottom of this star-studded receiving corps, but has shown himself to be a very quality player in his limited opportunities and has averaged 10 yards per catch this season.
SATURDAY UPDATE: I suppose my interest in this LAR vs. MIN is obvious when you read the original article, but that interest extends to Justin Jefferson (and Adam Thielen if healthy), as well as Van Jefferson and OBJ. As mentioned in the original writeup, Antonio Brown is a tremendous play, but that will be reflected with heavy ownership. We're still awaiting confirmation on Tyreek Hill's status, but if he does indeed miss this week, Byron Pringle is perhaps my favorite option of the cheap KC receivers available. Stefon Diggs hasn't really flashed his upside consistently, but with both Gabriel Davis & Cole Beasley out, he'll continue to be peppered with targets, while Isaiah McKenzie is priced at just $3k and will mix in heavily for Buffalo. Keenan Allen continues to be a rock-solid producer, while has been relatively quiet but brings tournament-winning upside to GPP builds. The Baltimore secondary has been extremely susceptible to the deep ball which puts both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on my shortlist this week. Tyler Lockett is set to return for Seattle...he and DK Metcalf are always-viable GPP options. With Brandin Cooks on the reserve/COVID list, Houston's talented Nico Collins is one of my favorite salary savers on the slate and is a nice bring-back with Chargers stacks. I was actually excited to roster Lions breakout receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, but with Jared Goff looking doubtful it's tough to pull that trigger.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 16 DFS Picks
Mark Andrews - BAL @ CIN ($7,000)
A funny thing has happened in Baltimore, as Lamar Jackson's absence has actually proven to be a good thing for Mark Andrews. Jackson's replacement, Tyler Huntley, has ruthlessly targeted Andrews in his two starts for the Ravens, as the big TE has been something of a security blanket for the young QB and has now received 24 looks over Baltimore's last two. Andrews has shredded the competition in those contests, combining for 21 catches, 251 yards, and three TDs. As a result of his monster production, he's been slapped with a big price bump on DK and stands at $7k for the Week 16 slate. That salary should help to keep his ownership in check, but I'm willing to stay on board against a Bengals squad that stands bottom-10 in the NFL in DK points, yards per target, and total receiving yards allowed to the TE position.
Dallas Goedert - NYG @ PHI ($5,100)
A positive byproduct of Gardner Minshew's spot start for Philadelphia a couple of weeks ago is that the Eagles' coaching staff was reminded that Dallas Goedert is, yanno, good at football and should be utilized. On the heels of Goedert's best game of the season with Minshew at the helm - a 6/105/2 explosion against the Jets - Jalen Hurts returned to the lineup and continued to look his way in Week 15, targeting him nine times against the WFT. Goedert responded with his second consecutive game of over 100 receiving yards, snagging seven catches for 135. At just $5.1k, he's a high-upside option thanks to his revitalized role in this Philly passing attack.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Travis Kelce is currently on the COVID list and his status for Week 16 remains highly questionable. His backup, Blake Bell, is just $2.5k...Rob Gronkowski saw 11 targets last week and should once again see elevated volume due to Tampa's receiving corps woes. The same could be said for Buffalo's Dawson Knox, whose already-healthy usage should only increase. We're all sick of Kyle Pitts, but he does rank third amongst TE's in Air Yards since Week 10.
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