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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 44: Font vs. Aldo on 12/04/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
It's early Christmas, folks. And the UFC owed us one after a two-week hiatus in which Dana left us waiting for some fights to come our way. I guess his thinking went by the way of letting us enjoy Thanksgiving week and eating the leftovers through last weekend, though. Anyway, we're back in Vegas this Saturday for another UFC FN event before we get to watch the latest numbered one a week from now on Dec. 11 when we jump straight into UFC 269.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves, though, and take the bull by this weekend's horns. Font and Aldo headline the main card in a bantamweight cherry on top of a UFC Apex complex that will also grace the likes of Rafael Fiziev, Jimmy Crute, and an eternal fighter in Clay Guida, who might or might not be 63 years old already. Anyway, get ready for the weekend fireworks because it's not that we were all drooling at the likes of Jose Aldo when he was blasting featherweights and reigning supreme in the UFC and MMA Worlds.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 44: Font vs. Aldo on 12/04/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Rob Font, $8400 - vs. Jose Aldo
There was a point in time when Jose Aldo was the biggest, most menacing UFC fighter doing it inside the Octagon. Not anymore, sadly. Aldo is back to his winning ways, yes, but even entering Saturday on a two-fight winning streak his best days are clearly over. Rob Font, on the other hand, has won four straight (including one via KO) and never really strung two losses in a row earlier than that winning span. These two have won and lost bouts to very random, shared opponents, so it's really a tossup all things considered.
We all know Aldo and we all know Aldo is just not going to chase those takedowns nor any sort of grappling game. He's about striking, but the problem is that he's not really landing that many SS these days, nor even attempting them. Font, contrary to that, has somehow kept his takedown activity up a bit while landing at least one per fight in three of his last four fights--all of them wins. The striking volume is higher, as are the landing rates, so it makes sense to think of Font as the most probable winner on this one keeping up his winning streak and elevating to five in a row this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brad Riddell, $7900 - vs. Rafael Fiziev
Typical UFC Vegas fight between two up-and-comers that weren't even in the circuit earlier than April of 2019. Riddell and Fiziev have been inside an Octagon a combined nine times with the former boasting a perfect 4-0 record and the latter sitting at a 4-1 himself only dropping his debut bout. In fact, the eight wins these two have racked up have all come from Oct. 2019 on, and they have very similar fighting schedules to date with one W in 2019, two in 2020, and their latest one this very year (Riddell in June, Fiziev in August).
Fiziev is the only one of the two to have rocked an opponent via first-round KO, though it's also true that he got caught in his first fight for a KO against under just 1:26 minutes of fighting time. Riddell comes with a better grappling/takedown game, but Fiziev should have the edge on the striking side of things. The numbers are close, though, with Riddell attempting 8.8 SS per minute to Fiziev's 10.5. Riddell edges Fiziev in landing rate, 60% to 54%. The kinda-similar volume and better takedown numbers from Riddell make me lean Brad-R for this one for fantasy purposes.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Leonardo Santos, $8800 - vs. Clay Guida
Back in 2016 Leonardo Santos faced Adriano Martins in UFC 204 and earned what was his fourth win in a row to put up a 5-0-1 record. He was then out of commission for three straight years due to different injuries in different key moments, but he came back in 2019 to a couple more wins and most recently a loss last March. Guida, even if you don't believe it, has been around since 2006 (!) though he's clearly squeezing the last drops of his fighting career: three Ls in a row adorn his fight log, and he's just 1-4 since the start of 2018, which... Ugh.
Guida attempted 12 (!) takedowns two fights ago, only to go for none his last time out in August. Santos, on the other hand, has had lower-yet-better 1-for-2 TD outings in back-to-back fights. None of these two is adept at chasing grappling, nor throw a huge volume of strikes. That being said, Santos demolishes Guida in terms of strike landing rate with percentages in the 65-to-75 clip compared to Guida's below-50% rates in all five last fights spanning 2018. Not liking Guida's chances at all here, fantasy or real-world wise.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jimmy Crute, $9200 - vs. Jamahal Hill
This fight has everything to turn into a ridiculous one. Hill and Crute are two very fresh fighters as the latter debuted in Dec. 2018 and Hill just did it in May of 2020. They have been involved in eight fights combined, but the most impressive statistical nugget is this one: all eight of those fights didn't reach the final buzzer, and seven of eight finished in the first round. That's absolutely insane.
Hill has so far split his record 1-1 with a victory and a defeat both via KO in under two minutes of fighting time. Crute has two wins via KO, two via submission, and a loss of each variety on top of that settling his 4-2 record to date. The endings have been so sudden for those two that none of them has ever reached even 40 SSA, so it's not that we can bank on this or that fighter based on volume. The landing rate favors Crute, sure, but both have needed the slightest opening to score themselves knockouts, so it's not that they need that much activity going their way. Crute, though, has the key advantage in grappling and takedown prowess having gone 11-for-15 in his short career. That alone makes me go with Crute on this one, though it's a super-risky bet either way considering one of these two will eat the mat and it's not clear at all who will be biting the dust.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brendan Allen, $9600 - vs. Chris Curtis
This fight should be strikingly similar to the one above. That's because both Curtis and Allen have been at it for a short amount of time (Allen debuted in Oct. 2019, Curtis less than a month ago!), both have combined for seven fights of which five ended early, and they're pretty much a couple of brawlers only with Allen having such a sublime low-volume-yet-murderous-takedown prowess.
Allen has attempted all of five takedowns in his six fights landing four of them. He's also logged six reversals in those six fights, which is magnificent for fantasy GMs given the sky-high points those moves come attached to. Curtis has not gone for a single takedown, though in all honesty he's fought all of 4:27 minutes in the UFC after dropping his first foe in the promo last Nov. 6th, so he has basically not needed anything he's not done. Any of those two could get away with the W judging by what we know, but for fantasy purposes, I'd err on the more-complete Allen to get the bulkier FP tally this weekend.
