RADIO
Last numbered UFC event of the year and the second-to-last before we flip the calendar page and welcome 2023, so enjoy it while it lasts! Dana is putting a vacated title on the line for this one with two very different contenders vying for lifting the belt: one already got it barely one year ago while the other has been waiting for this moment all life long.
Blachowicz has already done it all as he won the title, successfully defended it, and ultimately surrendered it. Ankalaev will be fighting under the brightest lights for the first time ever. Before we reach that climax, though? There will be plenty of fireworks involving all sorts of weight classes and fighters!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev on 12/10/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jan Blachowicz, $7000 - vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Vacant title fight! As I already wrote in the intro, Blochowicz will be fighting for the belt after defeating Aleksandar Rakic the last time we saw him, and also just one fight removed from his last bout involving a belt. Blachowicz grabbed the title back in Sep. 2020, defended it six months later, but ultimately surrendered (literally, as he got submitted) in Oct. 2021.
Ankalaev, on the other hand, has been waiting for this moment forever. Well, actually, just a little over four years and not exactly after spending 48 months waiting for the chance to happen but rather building his way there: it's been nine Ws in a row for Ankalaev after only dropping one in his debut.
These two come with superpower (literally, too) as they have combined for 11 KOs in the 28 fights they've been part of in the UFC. That's a 39% KO rate, just in case. Both come off knocking their latest opponents out in the third (Blachowicz) and the second (Ankalaev) rounds of those bouts.
Looking at their records and stats since 2020, Jan is 4-1 in that span to Ankalaev's perfect 6-0 run. Both can work the mat but they have only three and five landed takedowns in the past three years so it's not that they predicate their fantasy upside on that.
The striking favors Ankalaev in terms of volume and landing rates, but that's only on a per-minute basis. What I mean is that none of these two is adept at reaching the final decision, with a KO going some way as the most probable outcome.
Truth be told, if this goes the distance it might turn into a two-way dud. Here's hoping there's a KO, and in that case I see Blachowicz getting the better of Ankalaev and putting an end to his 9-win streak.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Paddy Pimblett, $9100 - vs. Jared Gordon
Three fights, three wins, three early finishes. Sheesh. That's Mighty Paddy for you, folks. Pimblett hit the ground running since entering the UFC circuit barely a year ago and through his three fights under Dana's promotional banner.
Gordon, seven years Pimblett's veteran, is a more balanced 7-4 UFC fighter though that shouldn't keep him from putting on a very strong effort against Paddy come Saturday. Gordon is actually 4-1 since 2020 and recently found his best level when it comes to this MMA thing compared to his early days.
Gordon has always lost via either KO or submission (three KOs, one sub) while he's only won fights reaching the judges' decision. Pimblett, who has yet to lose in the UFC, has never gone past the 2:46-minute mark of a second round winning once via KO and twice via submission.
Now, Paddy's wins come with a little caveat: he's only defeated fighters ranked below the 55th percentile in DKFP per fight to date, making for clear subpar competition. Gordon, on the other hand, earned his most-recent two victories against 79th and 73rd-pctl fighters while losing only to 95th-pctl Grant Dawson last April.
Logic says this fight will feature both takedowns and strikes, although it is very hard to predict how many of those we'll see considering one of the two barely goes past the first round while the other always reaches the 15-minute mark. The landing rates favor Gordon on the striking front, but Pimblett has shown more power and submission abilities.
I'm all-in on Pimblett extending his ongoing run and inching closer to a title fight through the next 12 months.
DraftKings MMA Catchweight (180lbs) - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alex Morono, $7500 - vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Two veterans on diverging paths, Morono and Ponzinibbio will keep fighting non-title fights this weekend as has been the case for them in a combined 31 fights to date.
Morono is the one entering the Octagon on a bright streak of victories with four consecutive Ws in his fight log (from May 2021 on). Santi has lost his last two outings while going 1-3 since the start of 2021; he was out of commission from Nov. 2018 until Jan. 2021.
These two have fought at least 15 times each in the UFC so they're far from inexperienced performers. They won't offer you many goodies on the mat as they don't attempt takedowns, let alone land them. Yes, I know the numbers say Santi has gone 1-of-4 in two consecutive outings and that both men pulled off three-TD outcomes in the past, but that's just not going to (impactfully) cut it.
The best possible outcome for fantasy purposes here would be a full 15-minute fight. These two launch 14+ SSA/min while landing those strikes at a 40-percent clip. They have gone the distance in their respective last three fights and in those they have averaged 225+ SSA and 100+ SSL putting their stats together.
From a pure fantasy angle, they have scored an average of 83+ DKFP (Morono, three wins) and 66 (Santi, two losses, one win) in that six-fight sample. You know who to side with (Morono, just in case) on a fight that feels like a nice addition to any roster on the basis that it will probably have a low ceiling but at least a reasonable DKFP floor.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Darren Till, $7400 - vs. Dricus du Plessis
Till's career is quite the one. He started his UFC tenure all the way back in 2015, won five of his six first fights leading up to a title bout against Tyron Woodley, dropped that one, and has never recovered since.
Du Plessis, on the other hand, has yet to meet defeat. It's been only three fights for him (one per year starting in 2020) and he went on to KO the first two opponents he faced before defeating Brad Tavares last July in 15 minutes of fighting time after hearing the judges' decision.
Till is a putrid 1-4 since Sep. 2018 and his lone victory came against Kelvin Gastelum back in Nov. 2019, more than three years ago, in a decision in which he finished 36-of-67 on the striking front while going 1-of-2 on takedowns. That's the striking volume and success you can expect from Till. He's not launched more than 5.3 SSA/min since Oct. 2017...
Du Plessis has never dropped from averaging 7.2 SSA/min and actually averages nearly 13 SSA per minute. He lands about 6+ SSL per minute, too, making him the better bet on that front and also on taking people down. He's not been bright at it, but he at least is trying with 4 and 7 TDA in his last two fights.
Has to be DDP no matter what he ends up doing, as he comes with a high floor even in decision fights thanks to his striking volume.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Bryce Mitchell, $7800 - vs. Ilia Topuria
All wins, no defeats! Let's goooooo!
None of Bryce nor Ilia has lost a fight in the UFC. Mitchell is 5-0 and Topuria is 3-0. They have at least finished one foe each in those runs, both of them starting no earlier than March 2019.
Mitchell is adept at low-volume striking, full-time outings as he's gone the distance four of five times never hitting his foe with more than 46 SSL. On the other hand, he's landed 1, 3, 7, and 4 TDs in his last four fights and has gone for a total of 23 TDs (65% success!).
Topuria sits at the other end of the spectrum, finishing his two most-recent foes via KO in the first and second round, although his game is pretty much on par with Mitchell's. Never landed more than 20 SSL over the time he's spent on the Octagon having gone a total 6-of-13 on takedown attempts for a near-50% success rate.
Both of these two rank in the 96th+ percentile in DKFP per fight. Mitchell has been a freaking outlier at everything, though. He is landed more than 60 percent of his takedown attempts and more than 65 percent of all the SSA he's thrown (a total of 216 SSA). Those are ridiculous success rates.
Mitchell has scored 77+ DKFP in four consecutive fights (average of 103 FP) with just one of those outcomes boosted by an early finish. Hands down a beast at this thing.
