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We have a typical short Saturday slate tonight on DraftKings with five games on the schedule. It sets up to be an explosive slate, though, since WAS, GS, and POR rank in the bottom-six in DK points per game allowed and four-of-five games have implied totals over 224.5 points. WAS/POR sets up as the clear spotlight of the night for DFS, clocking in with a monster 241.5-point implied total, the fastest projected pace, and the two worst defenses on the slate.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 2/20/21. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. With COVID-19 a significant factor globally, remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineup lock. Good luck RotoBallers. Let's get to it!
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Damian Lillard - PG, POR vs. WAS ($10,600)
Dame, once again, is in an incredible spot to be a core DFS piece tonight. He has a tasty 33.4% usage rate and 1.45 DK pts/min rate with McCollum and Nurkic out, and those metrics have jumped to 36.2% and 1.55 in the last two weeks as he has been rolling. Dame has game logs of 79, 61.25, and 57.75 over his last three, with the ceiling-busting game coming in his last outing on Wednesday (2/17 @ NO). The Wizards trot out one of the worst defenses in the NBA as they allow the fourth-most DK points per game overall and rank 27th in DK points per game allowed to PG's, along with 27th in DEFF and 30th in DvP against the position. Westbrook, Beal, and their random assortment of "other guys" have zero chance at slowing down a rested Dame in the highest-totaled and fastest-paced game of the night. Smash play.
Narrative alert: this is Lillard's first game since getting snubbed for a starting spot on the West All-Star team. Do what you'd like with that information.
Anfernee Simons - PG/SG, POR vs. WAS ($3,900)
There isn't a ton of value on this slate but Simons is someone to consider at a very cheap price point. He's averaging 23.6 minutes per game over his last six and while he hasn't done anything spectacular, he's consistently approaching or exceeding the 20 DK point mark. He gets the same advantageous matchup as Lillard does and benefits from this game having such a high total and projected pace. Simons has a 21.8% usage rate and averages 0.90 DK points per minute with McCollum and Nurkic off the floor - both rates that will certainly play at his cheap salary and in this matchup. You can feel free to play both Dame and Simons in the same lineup, too.
De'Aaron Fox - PG, SAC vs. CHI ($8,000)
I also like LaMelo Ball in a more favorable matchup against the Warriors' leaky guard defense, but Fox is in an excellent spot for a bounce-back performance at potentially low rostership. His scoring has dipped in three consecutive games and he only scored 11 points in his last contest, but he has six games exceeding 5x on his current price tag over his last 10 and has crushed value with at least 54 DK points three times over that span. The Bulls actually allow the least DK points per game to opposing point guards, but they rank 17th in DvP and 29th in defensive efficiency. They're not going to be fresh, either, as they're in a back-to-back situation coming off a grueling loss against Joel Embiid (50/17/5) and the Sixers. The Sixers (backup) guards didn't do much, but it's a good bet that Fox (and Haliburton) do their thing playing in the slate's second-highest totaled game.
Bonus G: LaMelo Ball ($8,800), Zach LaVine ($9,200), Andrew Wiggins ($6,200), Garrett Temple ($4,300)
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DraftKings DFS Forwards
LeBron James - PG/SF, LAL vs. MIA ($10,200)
LeBron and Dame are likely going to be the chalk studs on this slate, but it's wise to not overthink trying to get leverage with high-priced plays on short slates like this. With only 10 teams in action and a limited number of players capable of reaching the raw point totals of James and Lillard, there's a high probability that you'll need at least one of these guys in your lineup. James has posted 58.25 and 51.5 DK points in the two games since the A.D injury, and he gets a 3.6% usage bump with both Davis and Schroeder off the floor this season. James will run a larger share of his minutes as the nominal point-forward in this one and while the Heat are stellar against point guards and have an elite defense overall, we have to get to LeBron in this spot. 5x value seems easily attainable here, even with the low implied total and slow projected pace.
Gordon Hayward - SG/PF, CHA vs. GSW ($7,100)
Small forward is pretty brutal outside of Lebron, but Hayward is definitely worth a look. He sat out last game and is in a bit of a dry spell shooting the ball, but he has now had a full week off and returns to a very favorable matchup against the Warriors. GS ranks 21st in DvP and allows the fourth-most DK points per game to the position, in addition to the game having a high 230.5-point implied total and the slate's second-fastest projected pace. The Warriors notably allow opposing small forwards to hit the fourth-most three's per game (3.09, 38.4%), which is Hayward's forte. He hit just 23.8% of his 21 shots last game - regression to the mean is likely tonight with his season average sitting at a solid 48.6%.
Draymond Green - PF/C, GSW vs. CHA ($6,600)
This is the kind of game that DFS players should want to get to Green. He's a bit volatile as he has exceeded 5x value on his current tag in just 5-of-10 games, but he does have outputs of 40, 42, 47.5, and 50.5 DK points in that span. Charlotte allows the third-most DK points per game to opposing power forwards and allows the most assists and the sixth-most rebounds per game to the position. They also rank 29th in DvP and 28th in DEFF against the position. This game will have an above-average pace and feature plenty of scoring, which suits Green's game very well.
Bonus F: Talen Horton-Tucker ($3,600), Juan Toscano-Anderson ($4,100), Denzel Valentine ($4,600)
DraftKings DFS Centers
Enes Kanter - C, POR vs. WAS ($6,900)
You want to find any viable ways to get pieces of this game that you can, and Kanter is certainly one of them. He's priced in the mid-range and needs 34.5 DK points to reach 5x value, something he has only done in four of his last 10 games and zero of his last three. However, this is an incredible matchup for him as the Wizards allow the third-most DK points per game to opposing centers (27th in DEFF, 23rd DvP) and allow the most rebounds per game (12.84) to the position. Kanter averages 11.1 rebounds per game and snatched up 21 boards just two games ago against the Thunder. The Wizards, similarly, don't really have an actual center with Thomas Bryant out.
Bonus C: Deandre Ayton ($6,800), Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,100), Robin Lopez ($3,500)
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