RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Homestead on Sunday for the second race of the Round of 8. Last week at Vegas, Joey Logano won his way into the Championship 4. Now, seven more drivers will vie to join him there. Will a playoff driver win, or will we see another non-playoff driver win, which has been a common theme in these playoffs.
Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Chase Briscoe, Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell are still alive in the battle to join Logano at Phoenix.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 10/23/22 at 2:30 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Denny Hamlin
Starts 14th - DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $13,500
You always have to consider Denny Hamlin to be a threat to win when the Cup Series is at Homestead, as he's recorded three wins here during his career.
The most recent win came in 2020, when Hamlin started on the pole and led 137 laps here. And while that pole came via NASCAR's qualifying formula and not from his on-track performance, it was his fourth consecutive time starting first at Homestead. He pushed that to five in a row last year. Hamlin's qualifying speed hasn't always translated to a big finish, but it's notable that he knows how to be fast here.
In fact, his 14th-place starting spot on Sunday is the lowest he's started at Homestead since 2012, when he started 41st. And while two of his three wins here came with Hamlin starting in the top five, his 2009 win came after he started 38th, so Hamlin has shown he can navigate through traffic here.
William Byron
Starts 1st - DraftKings $9,200| FanDuel $12,000
Byron picked up right where he left off last time the Cup Series was at Homestead, qualifying on the pole for Sunday's race.
When the Cup Series was here last February, Byron led 102 of the 267 laps, coming from a 31st-place starting spot to win the race. It was a dominant showing despite the fact that he had to move from deep in the field.
With Byron starting up front, he'll have an easier time leading laps in this one. There's always some added risk with playing the polesitter because he can't earn place differential points and can only lose them, but his recent history here makes him too intriguing to pass up. I'd expect either Byron or Christopher Bell to be the pace setter in the first stage.
Chase Briscoe
Starts 19th - DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $8,500
Briscoe's had a weird season He won at Phoenix, then went eight races after that with only one top 10. But when it matters, with playoff advancement on the line, Briscoe has picked things up.
This 14 car has four top 10s in a row, including a fourth-place finish last week in the opening race of this playoff round. He led six laps.
With Briscoe starting 19th this week, there's some good place differential upside if he can continue this run of top 10s. And considering he's the only remaining Stewart Haas playoff driver, I'd imagine the team will continue to put him in the best position of anyone of their four drivers to succeed.
Briscoe finished just 18th here last year, but it's notable that he started 30th in that one, so he ended up with a solid fantasy day because of place differential. He's also won here in Xfinity.
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Austin Cindric
Starts 26th - DraftKings $7,700 | FanDuel $7,500
It wasn't a great qualifying effort from Team Penske, with Ryan Blaney starting 13th, Joey Logano 17th and Cindric 26th. But that does leave this 2 car with some really good place differential upside heading into Sunday's race.
Cindric has never raced here in the Truck Series, but he has plenty of experience here in other series. He's made five Xfinity Series starts here, leading double-digit laps in four of those races and recording top 10 results in each race, with a best finish of second. And in the Truck Series, Cindric ran here once, finishing fifth back in 2017.
This season, Cindric has hit a bit of a rough spot, with consecutive finishes outside the top 20, but he's got an average finish of 16.0 with nine top 10s.
Austin Dillon
Starts 32nd - DraftKings $7,200 | FanDuel $5,300
That FanDuel salary is extremely low, isn't it? Dillon is priced lower than five drivers who he's ahead of when it comes to DraftKings price, and he's just $300 more than Ricky Stenhour Jr. and Harrison Burton.
This has been one of Dillon's better tracks in the Cup Series, with an average start of 18.0 and average finish of 12.5. That average finish is better than it is at any track except for COTA (but he's run there just twice) and Darlington (12.3).
Dillon's had seven top 15s in a row here and has never finished off of the lead lap. With the 3 car starting 32nd, there's a huge amount of place differential upside for this car.
Aric Almirola
Starts 28th - DraftKings $6,700 | FanDuel $6,500
Almirola is pretty cheap for a Stewart Haas driver, especially one with a good bit of place differential upside, since he starts 28th. O the season, Almirola has an average finish of 17.7.
He's done relatively well at Homestead over the course of his Cup Series career, with four top 10s and an average finish of 20.5, though it's been kind of a roller coaster here. Since joining SHR in 2018, his finishes at Homestead are: ninth, 22nd, fifth, 30th.
Almirola's a bit of a boring play, but there's a pretty clear path to value here.
