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Fantasy football start em, sit em and lineups advice for the Buccaneers vs Rams and Chiefs vs Bills Sunday games. Dan's Divisional Round matchups analysis.
The playoffs are down to the final eight teams with two games each on Saturday and Sunday this weekend. Each of the remaining eight teams has significant strengths and a few weaknesses, making this article extremely difficult to pare down to the essentials. With that being said, I’ll be taking a different approach to this week's article. While this article is focused specifically on the Sunday games, I’ll be evaluating the players for the entire four-game playoff round. You can also check out the Saturday Start Em, Sit Em for Divisional Round article. When it comes to the games on Sunday, the unique thing is all of these teams have played their opponents earlier in the year. As always, any feedback or commentary is welcome via my Twitter account (@fornekdf).
The first game on Sunday will be between the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams head into the Divisional Round of the playoffs after convincing wins in the Wild Card round. The Rams dominated the Cardinals on Monday Night football, winning 34-11. Los Angeles used a balanced approach (235 passing yards and 140 rushing yards) to move on to the second round of the playoffs. On the other hand, the Buccaneers head into the Divisional round after racing out to a 31-0 lead over the Eagles before ultimately winning 31-15. Tom Brady paced the Buccaneers' offense by throwing for 271 yards and two touchdowns. These teams faced off in back in Week 3, with the Rams securing a 34-24 victory.
The last game of the Divisional round should be a high-powered game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Buffalo heads into the Divisional round after absolutely decimating the New England Patriots in the Wild Card round. Josh Allen started the playoffs impressively, completing 21 of 25 passes for 308 yards and five touchdowns. Buffalo also added 174 rushing yards against one of the top defenses during the 2021 season. Kansas City handled the Pittsburgh Steelers in a similarly dominating fashion, winning 42-21. The Chiefs' offense started slowly before finding their stride. Patrick Mahomes finished the game with 404 passing yards and five touchdowns. Buffalo won 38-20 in the first matchup between these teams in Week 5.
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Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Game time: Sunday, January 23, 3:00 p.m.
- Game line: Tampa Bay -3.0
- Game total: 48.5
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
- Game time: Sunday, January 23, 6:30 p.m.
- Game line: Kansas City -2.0
- Game total: 54.5
Must Starts
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Josh Allen has the best matchup and situation of any quarterback in the Divisional round of the playoffs. The Bills and Chiefs run two of the highest-octane offenses in the NFL and will face off for the second time this season. In their first matchup, Allen completed 15 of 26 passes for 315 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. He also carried the ball 11 times for 59 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City’s defense improved greatly after that game, but the Chiefs still finished as the third-worst defense in the NFL against quarterbacks in 2021 (19.4). Allen completed 21 of 25 passes for 308 yards and five touchdowns against a much stronger defense in the Wild Card game against New England and should be poised to shoot out against an easier secondary this week.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Like Allen, Mahomes will greatly benefit from the pace of play in this week’s game against the Bills. Mahomes had a stellar opening round for the Chiefs against the Steelers, completing 30 of 39 passes for 404 yards and five touchdowns with just one interception. Kansas City secured the win against Buffalo in their first game in Week 5, but Mahomes had a very modest day by his standards, throwing for just 272 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. He also added eight carries for 61 yards. The Chiefs' offensive line has had time to gel since that game (and the Bills lost Tre’Davious White to a knee injury), which should make Mahomes’ life easier the second time around. You can’t fade Mahomes in any matchup, especially during the playoffs.
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Like Kansas City and Buffalo, the Rams and Buccaneers faced each other once this season (in Week 3). It was arguably Matthew Stafford’s best game as the Los Angeles Rams’ quarterback this season. Stafford completed 27 of 38 passes for 343 yards and four touchdowns in his first matchup against Tampa Bay’s underwhelming secondary. Stafford was efficient against the Cardinals in his wild card game (13 of 17 for 202 and two touchdowns) but didn’t need to air it out since the Rams were able to build a big lead early and run out the clock. Tampa Bay is one of the best run defenses in the NFL, so look for Stafford to get more work in this game. The Buccaneers finished 2021 allowing 17.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Devin Singletary has seen his role change dramatically in Buffalo since their first matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. In Week 5, Singletary played just 26% of the snaps and had six carries for 25 yards and one reception for -2 yards. Since Week 14 (including last week’s game), Singletary is averaging 18.4 carries and 80.8 rushing yards per game. He also has 11 receptions (on 14 targets) for 86 yards in his last five games and eight total touchdowns. Kansas City has been strong against running backs this season (17.3 fantasy points per game), but few running backs at this stage are as healthy and get the volume of Devin Singletary.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
The Buccaneers wide receivers have seen a massive overhaul the last few weeks thanks to injuries (Chris Godwin) and antics (Antonio Brown), leaving Mike Evans as the unquestioned top target in Tampa Bay. Since Week 16 (Godwin was injured in Week 16 and Antonio Brown left the field this week), Evans has 24 targets, 19 receptions, 253 yards, and four touchdowns. The sheer passing volume makes Evans a fantastic play, but there is some risk. Jalen Ramsey hasn’t shadowed anybody this season, but with the Buccaneers featuring just Evans as a viable perimeter threat, he could be called to follow him. Regardless, Evans can make a big play any time he is targeted and should be started this week.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Stefon Diggs drew the attention of J.C. Jackson against the Patriots last week which resulted in a subpar performance in a game where the Bills scored 47 points (three receptions on four targets for 60 yards). Diggs also had a modest performance against Kansas City back in Week 5 (two catches on five targets for 69 yards), but it was in the only regular-season game this year that Josh Allen attempted fewer than 28 passes. Both teams will likely be throwing the ball this week, so expect Diggs to bounce back against a secondary that allowed 22.7 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this year.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Like Diggs, Tyreek Hill had a modest Wild Card performance because of his team’s commanding victory. Hill caught all five of his targets for 57 yards and a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. More importantly, Hill played 77% of the team’s offensive snaps just one week after suffering a heel injury, indicating that he was healthy and without restrictions. Hill caught seven of 13 targets for 63 yards in his first matchup against Buffalo, but that was against a completely healthy secondary. Kansas City has been more creative getting Hill the ball as the season went on, so he could have a huge day at any time.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Cooper Kupp saw a lull in production during the Wild Card round, catching five of seven targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. The lack of production can easily be explained away by an early lead and a run-heavy focus so the Rams could move on to the Divisional round of the playoffs. Kupp was the top fantasy player in 2021 and is a lock for seven targets and five receptions per game. In his first matchup against Tampa Bay, he caught nine of 12 targets for 96 yards and two touchdowns. Tampa Bay is allowing 21.3 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season and Kupp is in a great position to exploit the weaknesses in their secondary once again.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Rob Gronkowski had ridiculous production in Weeks 17 and 18 without Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin (20 receptions, 14 targets, and 252 yards), but failed to reach those statistical heights during Wild Card weekend. Gronk caught five of six targets for 31 yards but was able to salvage his day with a touchdown in the win against the Eagles. The Rams have done well against tight ends this season (6.8 fantasy points per game), but Gronk is the unquestioned second receiving option in Tampa Bay and will see a healthy dose of targets. Gronk caught four of eight targets for 55 yards in their first matchup.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Travis Kelce was the top passing weapon for Kansas City against Pittsburgh, leading the team with seven targets, five receptions, and 108 receiving yards. He also added a touchdown reception (and threw a touchdown pass of his own) in a convincing victory. Buffalo has one of the best defenses against tight ends, but Kelce sees enough target volume that he’s immune to most matchups. In his first game against Buffalo, Kelce caught six of 10 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown. He will need to have another big day to get Kansas City into the Conference Championship.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
Dawson Knox’s high touchdown upside makes him a strong play this weekend. Knox entered Wild Card weekend in a difficult matchup against a Patriots defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position (4.3 points per game). All Knox did was catch all five of his targets for 89 yards and two touchdowns. Knox had a huge game against Kansas City in Week 5, catching three of four targets for 117 yards and a touchdown in Buffalo’s loss.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Tyler Higbee has developed a consistent role in the Rams’ passing attack in his last five games. Higbee has at least four targets, three receptions, and 41 yards in every game he has played since Week 12. He also added two touchdown receptions in Week 18. Cooper Kupp is drawing the focus of opposing defenses and Odell Beckham Jr. has added a vertical element to the passing game since Robert Woods went down with an injury, which is giving Tyler Higbee plenty of opportunities underneath. Higbee is getting enough volume to justify utilizing him in PPR formats. Higbee caught all five of his targets for 40 yards and a touchdown in Los Angeles’ first matchup against the Buccaneers.
Consider Sitting
Sony Michel (RB, LAR)
Sony Michel had been effective as the Rams’ primary running back, but the return of Cam Akers has already relegated him to a secondary role. Michel played in just 40% of the team’s offensive snaps in the Wild Card round, carrying the ball 13 times for 58 yards. Los Angeles has absolute faith in Akers’ health considering the game was in hand early and they could have reduced his snaps. Instead, Michel found himself on the bench and with the smallest snap share he’s had since Week 12. Michel’s between the tackles style is also a bad fit against a defense that allowed just 15 fantasy points per game to running back this season, the third-fewest of any team in the NFL.
Darrel Williams (RB, KC)
Darrel Williams played just eight snaps against the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs, totaling just one carry for four yards. It would seem the toe injury he suffered in Week 18’s game against the Denver Broncos is more severe than the team initially let on. Additionally, the Chiefs have been willing to play the hot hand in the playoffs, and Jerick McKinnon had a great game against Pittsburgh (more on him later). Williams didn’t practice on Wednesday and is hard to trust, especially with McKinnon looking fresh and the looming return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the horizon.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn’t played since Week 16 against the Steelers, but logged a full practice on Wednesday and will seemingly return. Even when he was healthy, CEH had a very limited role in the Kansas City offense. Edwards-Helaire had strong performances in Weeks 3 and 4 (31 carries, four receptions, 223 total yards, two touchdowns), but then struggled to recapture that production. In six games from Weeks 5 to 16, CEH averaged just 10.2 carries, 2.5 targets, and 50.9 total yards per game. If Jerick McKinnon is healthy, he offers the explosive ability that Clyde Edwards-Helaire lacks in the rushing attack.
Tyler Johnson (WR, TB)
Tyler Johnson has moved into the starting lineup thanks to the losses of Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, but he has struggled to provide consistent production. Johnson was targeted just three times against the Eagles (despite getting softer coverage) and caught two passes for 30 yards. Johnson finished fourth on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards despite the lack of receiving weapons around him. Johnson just isn’t getting big volume in Tampa Bay’s passing attack and doesn’t have the vertical speed to provide huge fantasy value unless he gets more volume.
Van Jefferson (WR, LAR)
Van Jefferson has taken a backseat to Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., and Tyler Higbee in the last five games. Since Week 14, Jefferson has just 17 targets, 10 receptions, and 164 receiving yards. There are plenty of strong wide receiver options in this week’s playoff games, making it hard to start Jefferson over more consistent options.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
Cole Beasley has become an afterthought in Buffalo’s passing attack as the season progressed. Since Week 9, the slot receiver has just two games with five or more receptions and 40 receiving yards. He also hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since Week 6 of the regular season. More explosive targets have emerged in the Buffalo passing game and big targets like Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox have siphoned off the red zone targets, making Beasley tough to trust in a difficult matchup.
Upside Plays
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
It is difficult to go against Tom Brady in the playoffs, which is why he is an “upside play” instead of a “consider sitting” in this article. The fact is, Brady has arguably the worst weapons of any quarterback in the playoffs and a difficult matchup on the horizon. Brady had a strong game against the Eagles, completing 78% of his passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns, but it was far from a stellar performance. Brady completed 41 of 55 passes for 432 yards and a touchdown against Los Angeles in his first matchup but had a healthy receiver corps and offensive line. Brady is the hardest quarterback to trust of the remaining eight teams, but could always provide a massive performance when he is being counted out.
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Leonard Fournette hasn’t played since Week 15 against the Saints thanks to a strained hamstring. When he was healthy, few running backs provided the three-down role that the veteran running back did in 2021. Fournette averaged 12.9 carries, six targets, and 90.4 total yards per game for Tampa Bay this season. Hamstrings are notoriously fickle injuries, so there is some risk that Fournette could re-injure if he’s activated from the injured reserve in this game. Even if he is back, Tampa Bay can ease him back into the offense thanks to the solid play from KeShawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard in the Wild Card round.
Giovani Bernard (RB, TB)
Giovani Bernard played in 49% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps in his first game since Week 14. Bernard finished his Wild Card game against the Eagles with 13 carries for 44 yards and a touchdown and five receptions on seven targets for 39 yards. Fournette was an excellent receiving back for most of the season, but with Bernard healthy, he adds another element out of the backfield. Bernard caught nine of 10 targets for 51 yards and a touchdown in his first matchup against the Rams and could once again have a big role if Tampa Bay falls behind again.
Jerick McKinnon (RB, KC)
Jerick McKinnon looked explosive against Pittsburgh in his first meaningful role since 2019. The veteran running back played in 78% of the Chiefs snaps in the Wild Card game, finishing with 12 carries for 61 yards and six receptions (on six targets) for 81 yards and a touchdown. McKinnon likely carved out a role for himself in Kansas City’s offense going forward, even with Darrel Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire returning from injury.
Cam Akers (RB, LAR)
It took Cam Akers just two games to take over a majority of the snaps in the Los Angeles backfield after tearing his Achilles’ before the 2021 season. The second-year running back played in 53% of the Rams snaps against the Cardinals in their Wild Card game, carrying the ball 17 times for 55 yards and catching one of two targets for 40 yards. It remains to be seen what role Akers will play (especially on a short week of practice), but the Rams have enough faith in his healing process to give him a considerable role going forward.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, LAR)
Odell Beckham Jr. continues to find the end zone since being traded to the Los Angeles Rams. OBJ has now had six touchdowns in nine games in Los Angeles after he finished his Wild Card game with four receptions, 54 yards, and the game’s opening touchdown. Odell Beckham Jr. has had inconsistent volume since joining the Rams, but he now has five games with at least four receptions and 37 receiving yards.
Byron Pringle (WR, KC)
Byron Pringle has started to emerge as the third receiving option for the Kansas City Chiefs. Since Week 14, Pringle is averaging six targets, 4.4 receptions, and 45 yards per game. He also has four touchdowns during that five-game stretch. Pringle had just two receptions for 11 yards and a touchdown in his first matchup against the Bills, but his expanded role in the offense makes him solid upside play in a game that should provide shootout conditions.
Mecole Hardman (WR, KC)
Mecole Hardman has seen a higher target share in the last two weeks, collecting 15 targets, 12 receptions, and 146 yards against the Broncos and Steelers. He hasn’t shown the ability to consistently draw targets from Patrick Mahomes, which gives him an extremely low floor. However, he has a role in the return game and the ability to find the end zone any time he touches the ball.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, BUF)
Emmanuel Sanders found the end zone in his first game since Week 16, catching two of three targets for 36 yards. Sanders has struggled to have big production with Buffalo this season, but he does have the ability to take the top of the defense and has shown a knack for finding the end zone when he’s on the field. Sanders caught three passes for 54 yards and two touchdowns in his first matchup against Kansas City.
Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF)
Gabriel Davis has struggled to carve out a consistent role when Buffalo’s wide receiver room is completely healthy, but he does have a nose for the end zone this season. Davis has seven total touchdowns this season despite having just five games this year with higher than 53% of the team’s offensive snaps. It will be all hands on deck for Buffalo as they try to avenge last year’s playoff loss, which could mean an increased red zone role for Davis.
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