Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Valspar Championship

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Valspar Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Valspar Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Valspar Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)

7,360 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

After a unique week on the PGA Tour schedule, things will return to some level of normalcy for the Valspar Championship. One hundred and fifty-six players are slotted to tee it up at the problematic Copperhead test, and while the 7,360-yard layout won't exactly strike fear into the players' eyes from a distance standpoint, the diabolical nature of the facility will quickly begin to turn this into one of the more challenging tests the field will face all year long.

The 74 bunkers and eight water hazards littered throughout the property should provide trouble at every turn, but the real head-scratcher comes into play when we look at the unique setup of having five par-threes. All five holes measure in at over 175 yards, which sees four of these stops grading inside the top-nine holes when it comes to difficulty for the week. The nine par-fours will all be manageable in yardage, but the forced layups will give us a pronounced increase in scoring, and we can see that emphasized by the three hardest holes coming in between 425-450 yards. When we add that to the equation that driving accuracy is also lower than your expected event, you get a sense that players can find themselves trapped inside of a bubble of doom.

If all of that isn't tricky enough, the course bites into you one last time during the final three-hole stretch called the 'Snake Pit,' which ranks amongst the most challenging closing bits on tour. Strokes gained approach and ball-striking will be critical for players if they want to find success, and we have seen the impact on iron play far exceed what we do doing a normal week, grading out nearly 14 times more influential than strokes gained off the tee over the last handful of years. It is not uncommon to see that statistic come in at around three to five times higher on a given week, but the enhanced total should help again explain why Copperhead is a second shot course.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Justin Thomas leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Dustin Johnson at 11/1, Paul Casey, Viktor Hovland and Corey Conners at 22/1 and Tyrrell Hatton at 28/1.

Key Stats 

• Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 20%
• Ball Striking 15%
• Proximity 150+ Yards 15%
• Strokes Gained Approach 15%
• Bermuda Putting + ATG 15%
• Overall Bogey Avoidance 10%
• Sand Save Percentage 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Justin Thomas($11,500)

We get a slight surprise with Justin Thomas coming in priced ahead of Dustin Johnson, but it is hard to argue against when we consider the recent struggles for DJ. Thomas ranks first in this field in par-five scoring and strokes gained approach and should be viewed as a top-end option for GPP contests.

Dustin Johnson ($11,200)

I know that the recent form doesn't look great on paper for Dustin Johnson, but the big-hitting American has the skill set to turn it around at any given moment. Johnson ranks second in my model when looking at pure upside for the Valspar, and his sixth-place finish here in 2019 should be considered a promising sign that he can build off of his 13th during his last start at Harbour Town. The 36-year-0ld is more than just a big-hitter, and the difficulty of the venue should play right into his strengths.

Paul Casey ($10,000)

Surprisingly, back-to-back wins for Paul Casey at Copperhead haven't exactly broken the bank for the Englishman's ownership, which sits at a rough projection of about 12 percent early on Monday. I would assume most of the trepidation can be chalked up to his recent cold stretch of golf, but his quality ball-striking makes Casey someone that can't be ignored at Innisbrook. It is hard to find a ton of natural fades (if any) this week above $9,000 in salary, but Casey should be in play for all game types.

• Safest Play: Paul Casey ($10,000)
• Most Upside: Justin Thomas ($11,500)
• Favorite GPP Play: Dustin Johnson ($11,200)
• Fade: Viktor Hovland ($10,500) is my least favorite. Wouldn't classify him as a total fade.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Unlike most weeks where we typically can find a handful of options that we are looking to fade, the $9,000+ range features a stout group from top to bottom. Players like Abraham Ancer ($9,300), Louis Oosthuizen ($9,500) and Corey Conners ($9,600) are more in this section as options I am considering for cash-game builds over GPP contests because of their lack of winning upside, but a case can still be made for any of the trio members at the right ownership total in GPPs.

• Safest Play: The three mentioned above
• Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann ($9,100), Tyrrell Hatton ($9,400)
• Favorite GPP Play: Sungjae Im ($9,200)
• Fade: None

$8,000 Range

Of the top-24 players in DK pricing, nobody ranks outside of 31st for me in overall rank. In fact, the player that does rank 31st (Max Homa, $8,100) jumps to 22nd for GPP upside and 26th for cash-game safety. I expect most of the ownership to flock to Jason Kokrak (8,700), Charley Hoffman ($8,600), Cameron Tringale ($8,400) and Chris Kirk ($8,200), but all are in play for one game type or another.

• Safest Play: Jason Kokrak ($8,700)
• Most Upside: All pretty equivalent when you consider pricing/ownership
• Favorite GPP Play: Ryan Palmer ($8,500)
• Fade: None (I know it is a boring take, but pricing is really good this week).

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)

• Safest Play: Branden Grace ($7,600)
• Most Upside: Keegan Bradley ($7,900)
• Favorite GPP Play: Alex Noren ($7,300) - Love the ownership projection for a golfer that should make the cut and exceed his price tag.
• Fade: Rory Sabbatini ($7,100), Gary Woodland ($7,800)

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

• Safest Play: Chase Seiffert ($6,600)
• Most Upside: James Hahn ($6,900)
• Favorite GPP Play: Sepp Straka ($6,800) (Covid) Pat Perez ($6,500)
• Fade: Roger Sloan ($6,500)

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