RADIO
Good morning, fellow Rotoballers. We're hitting our stride right now in what I consider the third best sports month of the year. From a fantasy sports perspective, it's even higher, only falling behind the month of October. Why now? We've got the heat of the pennant race in baseball with the NFL now mixed in. October only tops September because the heat of the pennant race is flipped to playoff action and we also get to dabble in NBA DFS by the end of the month.
Anywho, let's focus on cashing tonight before we get ahead of ourselves on the calendar. On deck tonight, we have a big 14-game slate that begins at 7:05 EDT. Among the pitchers toeing the bump tonight, we have a handful of aces and at least a gas-can or two we can comfortably stack against.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 9/12/17. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Let's get to it, shall we?
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Vegas Odds
Before I get into the player selections, I like to point out some Vegas lines that should be helpful when making your rosters - specifically for those looking to identify viable stacks and cash game pitchers. The run projection (or over/under) lines that are of interest to me: Twins (5.8), Mariners (5.8), Rangers (5.8), Indians (5.6) and Red Sox (5.4). Those are all good-to-great teams to target for cash game stacks. If you're looking for tournament stacks, those are good stacks to start with or include, but make an effort to get a unique lineup by pairing them with stacks that could fly under the radar. As for moneyline favorites, we have three huge ones today - the Indians (-425), the Cubs (-256), and the Dodgers (-244).
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider
Corey Kluber - SP, DET vs CLE (DK - $13,300, FD - $11,800)
It feels a little weird to say this on a slate that also includes Clayton Kershaw, but Kluber is the best cash game play on the board tonight. Let's start with the Vegas stuff, seeing as they love Mr. Kluber. The Indians are an absolutely enormous moneyline favorite, which opened at -385 and is all the way up to -425. No exaggeration, I've never seen a baseball moneyline differential quite that high. What's this moneyline suggest? That not only is Kluber dominant, but he faces a team that barely resembles the one that took the field on Opening Day, and that Kluber should get plenty of run support (Indians currently have second highest projection at 5.6), which would put him in line for the win. As for Corey, he has been his usual dominant self in this stretch run, having beat his high price-implied value in nine of his last 10 games, by an average of 11 fantasy points in each. He owns a sparkling 0.9 WHIP, 1.08 HR/9 and an 11.9 K/9. His strikeout projection is the highest of the day and facing a Tigers team who's projected lineup is striking out at a 25% clip against right-handed pitching this season certainly helps. As if you needed any more convincing, Kluber's Statcast data from his last three games is very strong, as he's allowed only a 28% hard hit rate with an average exit velocity of 88 miles per hour.
Sonny Gray - SP, NYY @ TBR (DK - $9,600, FD - $8,600)
Playing in large field tournaments tonight? Of course you are. While paying up for guys like Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw are never a bad idea (for their strikeout upside, not their "safety"), I'd much prefer to shop in the mid-range for a guy with strikeout upside that doesn't break the bank. After all, we need to pepper in some home run threats into large tournament lineups and Kluber doesn't allow us to do so comfortably. Save for one bad start against the Red Sox, Gray has been very strong with the Yankees. He's managed to exceed value in nine of his last 10 games and he has eclipsed 45+ points three times in that stretch. Tonight, I like him not only for the price, but the matchup and the venue. While the game says "Yankees at Rays," this one is being played in New York at Citi Field as the Rays were displaced by Hurricane Irma. Not only is this a stadium upgrade from a pitching perspective, but Gray is likely to be backed by what more resembles a home crowd than a road one - especially with the Bronx Bombers in the playoff picture. For the season, Gray has been strong in limiting base runners (1.1 WHIP), keeping the ball in the yard (0.8 HR/9) and his K/9 at 8.7 is pretty strong as well. He gets a bump in strikeout outlook tonight as this Tampa team is pretty strikeout heavy, and the lineup they're expected to trot out has a 25% K rate against right-handed pitching this season. Last but certainly not least, Gray's StatCast data from his past three starts is nearly elite - 22% hard hit rate with a 50% fly ball rate.
Also Consider: Jose Quintana - SP, NYM vs CHC (DK - $10,900, FD - $8,900)
DFS Infielders to Consider
Robinson Chirinos - C, SEA vs TEX (DK - $3,500, FD - $3,500)
Chirinos has one of the best matchups at the position tonight and perhaps the best venue. He's a good cash play and also has the power upside we seek in tournaments. He's been swinging a pretty hot bat, and he's the owner of huge positive splits - .492 wOBA, .344 ISO - dating back to the start of the season. Opposing starting pitcher Marco Gonzales has been extra generous to opponents this season, allowing a wOBA and ISO north of .400 and .300, respectively.
Yonder Alonso - 1B, SEA @ TEX (DK - $3,700, FD - $2,800)
Rostering Yonder tonight offers significant cash savings without really sacrificing the upside. First base is a position loaded with power talent, but with a lot of the big guns in less-than-perfect situations, I think this is a good spot to spend down. Alonso and his Mariners teammates get a park upgrade and a date with Miguel Gonzalez, who's season-long wOBA allowed is .334 - a number that has ballooned to over .450 over his last three starts. For the season, Alonso has posted impressive splits against .370 wOBA and a .223 ISO.
Brian Dozier - 2B, SDP vs MIN (DK - $5,000, FD - $4,200)
Dozier has a really strong matchup tonight and while the price is a little steep, I do like his floor and his ceiling so I'm comfortable with him in both formats. I feel pretty similarly about Robinson Cano, but Dozier gets the nod for me due to how poorly his opposing starting pitcher Travis Wood has pitcher. In his last three outings, the wOBA and ISO allowed by Wood are over .500 and .400 respectively. As for Dozier, he is a notorious southpaw smasher and enters this contest with a .414 wOBA and .257 ISO split. In his last 13 games, his hard hit rate is above 35% and the fly ball rate is an attractive 48%.
Anthony Rendon - 3B, ATL vs WAS (DK - $4,600, FD - $3,600)
I have a feeling Rendon flies under the radar tonight and I like his chances of being a tournament darling, but the floor is high enough for cash. Anthony has been really consistent this season against right-handed pitching, posting a .373 wOBA split. The power has been there as well, as his righty-righty ISO split is north of .200. He also enters this game with a 37% hard hit rate and 40% fly ball rate over his last three series and opposing starter Anthony Rendon is no stranger to the long ball.
Trea Turner - SS, ATL vs WAS (DK - $5,400, FD - $4,400)
Ever the stolen base threat (averaging nearly .5 per game), Turner is finally healthy AND swinging the bat much better than he was in his initial appearances back from the disabled list. Over his last 13 games, the young shortstop is posting a 35% hard hit rate and an impressive 46% fly ball rate. Those numbers might not blow you away, but they are 12% and 14% higher than his averages, which is pretty significant. His splits against right-handed pitching are also pretty impressive - .371 wOBA and a .207 ISO - and only increase my attraction.
DFS Outfielders to Consider
Giancarlo Stanton - OF, MIA @ PHI (DK - $5,700, FD - $4,700)
Stanton may have cooled off a little, but he's still posting well above average hard hit rates and fly ball rates. Tonight, he gets a major stadium upgrade and a date with a pitcher who has a 1.8 HR/9 mark this season. Despite being better against southpaws, Stanton's righty-righty splits are still elite status, highlighted by his .399 wOBA and .343 ISO.
Austin Jackson - OF, DET vs CLE (DK - $3,900, FD - $3,400)
A-Jax has really turned up the juice of late, and opposing southpaws have taken an absolute beating against him. His splits against lefties this season are almost hard to believe. To date, his wOBA is north of .400 and his ISO is sitting pretty at .254. Tonight's matchup is pretty opportune and offers a pretty safe floor as Matt Boyd has allowed a wOBA of .373 to opponents this season.
Rhys Hoskins - OF, MIA vs PHI (DK - $4,800, FD - $4,100)
If you're playing tournaments tonight, Hoskins is a must. He has been hitting home runs from the moment he arrived and the trend should continue tonight against a southpaw. Hoskins has a 41% hard hit rate this month and for the season, his splits against lefties are still jaw-dropping: .543 wOBA and a .714 ISO.
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