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Mike's CFB bettings picks against the spread for Week 4 (9/22 and 9/23). Eery FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
We had 50 FBS vs. FBS games again in Week 3, and boy were there some great ones! Even the FCS had another good week with Southern Illinois knocking off the Northwestern team that beat Nebraska in Week 0. North Dakota State came up a bit short in the desert, but Eastern Michigan popped off a win against a power five team for the first time since 2019.
What did we learn in Week 3? Don't mess with the Fun Belt. Sometimes you end up choking on cupcakes. And east coast teams that go out west sometimes have big, big problems. Oh, and Georgia is really, really good.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 4 (9/22 and 9/23)
West Virginia(-1.5) at Virginia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place. It is still as high as -3.5 in some spots and I've seen it as even in a couple of places. Curiously, the Mountaineers are carrying all the juice on this one. I guess it is warranted. Grant Wells hasn't fit all that well in this system yet and CJ Donaldson is electric. I'll take WVU.
Coastal Carolina(-2.5) at Georgia State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I think I like the over 62.5 more than the spread. CCU has had their issues on defense, but I'm not betting against Grayson McCall...especially considering the Panthers lost to a lackluster Charlotte team last week.
Virginia at Syracuse(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line actually opened with the Hoos favored and I wish I would have hammered it then. This much movement in a line always makes me nervous and I really don't like that half. I do like the Orange, but at some point, Virginia will quit playing this poorly. There is way too much talent on the offensive side of the ball for them to continue being this bad. Give me the Hoos, but I wouldn't bet this.
Nevada at Air Force(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yuck! I guess if Iowa covered this, Air Force should be able to as well...
Boise State(-15.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Boise defense isn't going to force seven turnovers, but will it matter? UTEP has gone back to the stone age without Jacob Cowing. Give me Boise.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 3. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Florida State(-2.5) at Louisville: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There's a reason I left this one alone. It says a lot for Florida State that they can lose Jordan Travis and still hang on to win this game on the road. They seem to be in capable hands with Tate Rodemaker if Travis is forced to miss time. We also learned that there won't be many teams that can cover Johnny Wilson.
Air Force(-16.5) at Wyoming: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect an outright win, but this Wyoming defense looks improved over last year. Can the offense hold serve?
(1)Georgia(-24.5) at South Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Boy, it sure is quiet from all those pundits who thought South Carolina had a chance to pull the upset, huh? Georgia lost more than half of their starters from last year's championship team and is still winning big. That win over Oregon looks a lot better than it did a couple of weeks ago too.
Connecticut at (4)Michigan(-47.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Throwing is overrated...but it didn't stop J.J. McCarthy from showing why he won the job a couple of times in this one.
(6)Oklahoma(-10.5) at Nebraska: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
After that first drive, I was transported back in time to 2009. I was there in Memorial Stadium the last time the Sooners played in Lincoln as well and watched helplessly as Ndamukong Suh single-handedly destroyed our offense. I thought I was going to have to endure the not-so-good-natured ribbing of 90,000 of my closest friends...and my wife...after Nebraska beat us again. Thankfully, the Nebraska defense that we have seen all year so far showed up midway through the first quarter.
Texas State at (17)Baylor(-29.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was feeling really good about this one heading into the fourth quarter. No such luck in the final quarter.
Purdue at Syracuse(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Not a bad fourth quarter, huh? It was a 10-9 snoozefest heading into the final stanza, then the offenses finally woke up. The two teams combined for 42 fourth-quarter points (hey, they're no Appalachian State...few are). The Orange narrowly avoided devastating mistakes all day to pull this out on the last play of the game. This was a great one!
Cincinnati(-22.5) at Miami(OH): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Redhawks blew a ten-point lead in the second quarter to still almost get covered. They made me sweat this one pretty good.
Western Kentucky at Indiana(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I knew I should have just bet the over on this one. WKU came to play and this was as exciting as advertised.
Buffalo at Coastal Carolina(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was not a great game for CCU. Buffalo actually led this game heading into the fourth quarter before Grayson McCall finally took over. It was too little too late for my bet.
South Alabama at UCLA(-15.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
When it became apparent that my spread pick was busted anyway, I was hoping for South Alabama to win this outright. I will never understand why you fake the field goal in that situation. The Bruins couldn't have kicked the field goal to win and they would have had worse starting field position to begin that last drive. That was a questionable call in what was otherwise a great game for the Jaguars.
Ohio at Iowa State(-18.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hunter Dekkers got some much-needed confidence in this one. Xavier Hutchinson might be the best receiver Iowa State has ever had, which is saying quite a bit.
Rutgers(-17.5) at Temple: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was an absolutely brutal game. How ugly was it? A tight end was the game's rushing leader. Can we just contract these two already? Even fans of these two teams were looking away...
Old Dominion at Virginia(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It has been a long time since I have seen an offense this talented make so many errors. Yeah, the Monarchs excel at creating takeaways. So does Illinois. But there has been zero rhythm in the Hoos offense in either of those games and it's not all the defenses trying to stop them. Virginia had no business winning this game. their defense just played well enough in the second half to lock up the Monarchs.
California at Notre Dame(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I came very close to losing this bet twice. Replay gave me the win both times. The Irish finally made the switch to Drew Pyne and the offense responded almost immediately. This was a good effort by Cal, but it could have been much worse.
Tulane at Kansas State(-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Adrian Martinez had his best rushing game in purple, but it wasn't enough. The Tulane defense clamped down on Deuce when it really mattered. Just looking at the stat sheet, you would swear that Tulane lost this game. Adrian Martinez averaged just 4.8 yards per pass attempt in this game. That's not going to beat anyone.
North Texas at UNLV(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Aidan Robbins mowed through that North Texas defense while UNLV's clamped down in the second half. Does Vegas have another star in Robbins? He looked the part in this game.
(12)BYU at (25)Oregon(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
BYU's inability to run the ball was a massive problem here. Oregon didn't dominate the stat sheet as much as you would expect in a game this lopsided, but they controlled the run game and converted on fourth down three times. Timing is everything.
(20)Mississippi(-16.5) at Georgia Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Georgia Tech didn't look like an improving team in this one. Ole Miss dominated them in every way possible.
(22)Penn State(-3.5) at Auburn: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The loss of T.J. Finley did make some difference, but Penn State was largely dominating this game before then anyway. Auburn's run defense and run offense look good, but the rest needs work.
Vanderbilt at Northern Illinois(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not going to pretend like the loss of Rocky Lombardi didn't make a difference in this game. However, Ethan Hampton performed pretty well in relief. The more major issues for the Huskies were the inability to cover Will Sheppard (who leads FBS in touchdown receptions, by the way) and letting freshman A.J. Swann throw four touchdowns without picking him off.
Colorado at Minnesota(-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Colorado's athletic director actually came out and said he was disappointed in the football team. I can't imagine why... The Gophers only led 35-0 at halftime.
New Mexico State at Wisconsin(-37.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was Wisconsin's best offensive output since they hung 68 on Bowling Green back in 2014. Yes, the Aggies are that bad.
Troy at Appalachian State(-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was another great game that the ESPN grinches stole from the masses by confining it to ESPN+...and showing the Colorado-Minnesota game on the regular network. This was a brilliant game. The ending was even more brilliant. Appalachian State was trailing on the last play of the game. Chase Brice throws a Hail Mary about seven yards short of the end zone where the pass is caught and the other App State receivers escorted him into the end zone for the most improbable of wins. Thanks to ESPN, most than half of college football fans only saw this on highlight reels. The rest of the game was equally good!
Georgia Southern at UAB(-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Talk about piling it on Nebraska. Not only does old arch-rival Oklahoma beat them in their own house by 35, but the two other teams that beat Nebraska this year both lost. Dewayne McBride couldn't be stopped in this one. You know what? Anthony Grant is a better back than McBride. He should have been able to do the same thing against Georgia Southern last week, but Nebraska insists on using three running backs. Yes, coaching matters!
Louisiana-Monroe at (2)Alabama(-49.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I should have gone a little higher on this. I should have known that Bama wouldn't let up after a lackluster showing last week.
Kansas at Houston(-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Dammit! I was going to pick Kansas. The Houston defense has major issues and the infighting on the team during the game is not a good look. Is there a better story than Kansas so far this year? I said last year that I thought Lance Leipold was the right hire. The Jayhawks may not have more talent than you, but they just might out-hustle you. This was a good example of that.
Liberty at (19)Wake Forest(-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Someone should tell Sam Hartman that sloppy play is supposed to be in the first game back, not the second. Wake was really fortunate to win this game. They had chances to put it away, but the defense kept letting Liberty back in it.
Colorado State at Washington State(-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cam Ward may not be putting up the huge numbers that he did at Incarnate Word, but he does just keep winning. The Apple Cup is going to be fun this year, huh?
Marshall(-16.5) at Bowling Green: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Khalan Laborn had a huge game, but Bowling Green just wouldn't go away. Marshall follows up their biggest win in school history with an outright loss to a team that lost to a FCS school last week. Nice going, Marshall. Bowling Green played its second straight overtime game and you still couldn't hang the loss on them.
Mississippi State(-2.5) at LSU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better than to take Leach in a game like this. It started out well for the Bulldogs, but they completely lost control in the second half. It was ugly.
Toledo at (3)Ohio State(-31.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Toledo made this fun for about five minutes. Ohio State scored touchdowns on all six first-half possessions and racked up 763 total yards. This really wasn't a game.
Akron at (15)Tennessee(-47.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have gone higher on this. I know how good Tennessee's offense is.
Texas Tech at (16)North Carolina State(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a big-time performance by the Wolfpack defense. They bullied the bigger Tech receivers and forced Donovan Smith out of his comfort zone and into enough ill-advised passes to win rather easily.
Arkansas State at Memphis(-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was another good game for Seth Henigan, but the defense got bored...
Charlotte at Georgia State(-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, Charlotte, where did that come from? Chris Reynolds had a great game in the win. It was another tough, tough loss for the Panthers.
(11)Michigan State at Washington(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
It was far too little too late for Sparty. The Washington defense dominated the Spartans' run game. Michael Penix just tore them apart.
South Florida at (18)Florida(-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a game that Florida should have lost. South Florida had a few too many defensive lapses late in the game. If Florida can't stop Brian Battie from running wild on them, they are going to have some huge problems in the SEC this year.
(23)Pittsburgh(-10.5) at Western Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was sweating this one and wishing that I hadn't trusted Nate Yarnell as much as I would have Kedon Slovis. Israel Abanikanda wore down the Broncos' defense in this one.
Nevada at Iowa(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Yes, the defense pitched a shutout, but the offense still didn't look good. If Kaleb Johnson weren't around to give the Hawkeyes some semblance of a running game and if the Wolf Pack could have ever flipped the field, I don't think Iowa covers this...still.
SMU at Maryland(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Maryland needs to clean up the penalties like they did in the fourth quarter of this one to have any chance against Michigan. This offense is fun to watch and the defense made plays when they really needed to down the stretch. There were quite a few positives for the Terps here even if they couldn't cover Rashee Rice.
Central Florida(-8.5) at Florida Atlantic: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
As expected, the athletes took over in the second half. FAU put up a vailant effort in the first half, but netting zero yards in the third quarter did them in.
Louisiana(-10.5) at Rice: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Don't look now, but Rice has a winning record for the first time since September 19 of 2015.
Louisiana Tech at (5)Clemson(-33.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm glad Tech hung around for a half and scored two garbage touchdowns in the fourth. The Clemson offense found a rhythm in the second half.
UTSA at (21)Texas(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
One bad call led to the undoing of the Roadrunners in this one. The Texas defense came up with a couple of big plays and the Roadrunners couldn't stop Bijan Robinson in the last 20 minutes of the game.
UTEP(-2.5) at New Mexico: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Miners turned it over a staggering seven times in this one. You can't win games like that.
(13)Miami(FL) at (24)Texas A&M(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still don't know that I believe in that A&M offense no matter who is running it. The defense is legit though.
San Diego State at (14)Utah(-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
New quarterback, same results. The San Diego State offense is still a comedy of errors at best and an absolute disaster at worst. They were much closer to the worst in this one.
Fresno State at (7)USC(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Fresno fell flat in their big chance at the Coliseum. They had no answer for Caleb Williams and made too many mistakes to overcome in this one.
Eastern Michigan at Arizona State(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oh wow, this was ugly. Samson Evans ran for a staggering 258 yards on the Sun Devils. To make matters worse, that was the first career 100+ yard game for Evans. On offense, the Devils were plagued by dropped passes and an inability to run the ball effectively.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I knew early on that this was not going to be a good week, but I underestimated just how bad it was. I bombed the four-point bets and missed my only five. I went a disappointing 22-28 on the week dropping my season mark to 74-76. Unfortunately, I think my point bets really suffered.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-3 (8-8) = 0
2. 13-11 (29-31) = -4
3. 6-7 (26-20) = 18
4. 1-6 (7-13) = -24
5. 0-1 (4-4) = 0
I lost 25 points this week from all of those big bets that missed. That takes away my 15 points from earlier this year and I am now 10 points in the red on the season. I'm still up 80 points on my overall bets, but this was a rough week. I need to do better this week.
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