X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Cole Hamels to Chicago Cubs - Fantasy Implications

It did not feel like we would ever get here, but  Cole Hamels was finally traded by the Texas Rangers. Very little in baseball has been more up and down than Hamels' performances this season, but the Rangers finally found a trade partner in the Chicago Cubs, who were willing to give them the return they desired. The Rangers traded Hamels and cash considerations for right-handed pitchers Eddie Butler and Rollie Lacy as well as a player to be named later.

The Chicago Cubs rotation now bolsters a nice collection of names. Cole Hamels will join Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and the currently injured Yu Darvish. When all of those pitchers are firing, there will not be many better five-man rotations in the majors. Heading down the stretch and then into the playoffs the Cubs are going to have a lot of possible starting options.

The question is what does this move mean for Hamels and his fantasy value? Going from a team that could lose 100-games to a team fighting to make the playoffs should at least boost his potential to win games but what about the other numbers? Will we see an increase or maybe even a decrease in value? Below is a deeper look into Hamels’ value as part of the Cubs rotation, along with the impact his departure will have on the Rangers’ rotation and his owners across different fantasy leagues in the short and long term.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Rest of Season Value

It has been an incredibly mixed year for Hamels. Over the season as a whole, he has a 4.72 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 114 1/3 innings with 114 strikeouts. While the strikeout numbers are nice, those ERA and WHIP numbers are the worst of his career so far. A big driver of that terrible ERA has been surrendering 1.81 home runs per nine innings pitched. That is a long way above his career average of 1.04 HR/9. However, there was a 10-game stretch this season where Hamels looked to be back to his old self. In those 10 starts, Hamels put up a 2.81 ERA in 64 innings with 58 strikeouts. The HR rate was still an issue during those starts, with 1.55 HR/9 surrendered during that time. During that period his FIP and xFIP were 5.18 and 4.61 respectively, suggesting he was not pitching as well as the numbers were indicating.

A big part of the problem for Hamels has been his ability to pitch at home. Throughout his time with the Rangers, his form in Arlington has been an issue. In 2016, his home ERA was 4.40 compared to 2.40 and his wOBA on the road was .069 lower than at home. In 2017 the contrast between home and road were not as stark, 4.06 ERA on the road compared to 4.35 at home. However, in 2018 the home and road split has become even wider. In 59 innings at home, Hamels has a 6.41 ERA, a .387 wOBA and a .555 slugging percentage. In comparison, on the road he has a 2.93 ERA, with a .308 wOBA and a .382 slugging percentage.

Those numbers are potentially good news for Hamels fantasy owners following this trade. Getting out of that ballpark in Arlington has the potential to see Hamels return to his old levels. In addition, Hamels has made six career starts in Wrigley, throwing 41 innings with a 3-1 record, a 1.76 ERA and 40 strikeouts. In the two of those six starts to happen in the last four years, he has thrown one complete game shutout and an eight innings shutout. Over those two starts he has thrown 17 innings, struck out 20 and has not surrendered a single earned run. Statistics do not look much prettier than that for a pitcher.

Overall, Hamels is moving to a better team and getting away from a ballpark where he has struggled massively in two of the last three seasons. This trade has the potential to put Hamels right back in the top-20 fantasy pitcher discussion. However, he will need to work to prevent giving up home runs at anywhere near the rate he has so far this season.

The Cubs Rotation

The acquisition of Hamels is going to be bad news for one current member of the Cubs bullpen. As with any addition of a starting pitcher, there is the case of someone having to lose a spot in the rotation. On rare occasions, an addition can fill a hole in the rotation but usually it is bad news for someone. In this case, the two pitchers who could potentially lose out are either Tyler Chatwood or Mike Montgomery. The front-runner to lose his spot now is Chatwood who has a 4.98 ERA in 94 innings. The biggest issue for Chatwood has been lack of control. Yes, he has 82 strikeouts but he has given up an incredible 85 walks. For that reason the Cubs may decide he needs some time in the minor leagues to get his control back. However, that does not mean Montgomery is safe either, as he is now the man vulnerable when Yu Darvish is ready to return from injury. Yes, he only has a 3.73 ERA but he has struggled to strike guys out with just 51 in 82 innings, giving him a 4.59 SIERA. The lack of strikeouts greatly limits Montgomery's fantasy value so him remaining in the rotation is no great benefit to fantasy players

 

Dynasty Value

At this point, the dynasty value for Hamels is relatively small. At age 34, with 2476 2/3 major league innings under his belt, there is a good chance he does not have many more seasons left performing close to this level. However, a good performance from Hamels to end the season should at least ensure he remains in the majors the next couple of years. Right now he has a team option in his contract for next season at least.

It seems likely at this stage that Hamels has at least one and possibly as much as three to four years left as a high level starting pitcher. Even if he struggles the remainder of this season it is likely that at least one team in the majors will be willing to take a gamble on his talent and experience. As a fantasy owner of Hamels in dynasty leagues, there is not much you can do right now. Trying to sell an aging player who has struggled this season will not net you much in return. However, if he pitches well the next couple of months at Wrigley Field then he may be someone worth looking to move to a contender in late August or September. A trade late this year may present the last opportunity to get long-term fantasy assets in return for Hamels. Beyond that, the only reason for owning Hamels is if you are a contender this season and believe this move to the NL will boost his value.

 

What about the Rangers?

Moving Hamels offers the opportunity for the Rangers to get their young pitchers time in the major leagues for the remainder of the 2018 season. They seem committed, for the time being, to sticking with Yovani Gallardo and Bartolo Colon as two pieces of their roster. Martin Perez is auditioning for his long-term future and Mike Minor has the potential to be a solid piece of the rotation going forward, or at least a tradeable asset, be it this season or next.

The pitchers who should benefit with the chance to show their stuff in the majors are: Ariel Jurado, who will start Saturday, and Yohander Mendez, once he is back in the Rangers good books. However, neither of those young pitchers offer as anything more than possible spot starters in favorable matchups. Neither of them are particularly high strikeout pitchers meaning that their ceilings are extremely low. In terms of fantasy relevance, the best thing would be for the Rangers to turn back to Doug Fister once he returns from the disabled list. However, even Fister has struggled this season, with a 4.50 ERA and just 40 strikeouts in 66 innings.

Despite the gaping chasm in the fantasy value in the Rangers rotation and the loss of a rotation spot for either Tyler Chatwood or Mike Montgomery, the potential improvement we could see in Hamels fantasy value makes this trade a net-positive for fantasy.

 

More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Kyle Lowry

Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF