Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 12

December 2, 2020

Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 13 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.

This series continues into its twelfth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 12, we saw performances such as Patrick Mahomes throwing for 462 passing yards, the Denver Broncos wide receivers getting no receptions, and the Minnesota Vikings running backs combining for 67 rushing yards. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!

Improvements Ahead?

These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Las Vegas Raiders Running Backs

Jon Gruden & Greg Olson

The Raiders got dismantled by Atlanta Falcons, losing the game 43-6. In this game, the Las Vegas Raiders running backs combined for 12 carries, 33 rushing yards, four receptions (on seven targets), and 16 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Las Vegas Raiders running back room is averaging 25.55 carries, 109.45 rushing yards, 1.18 rushing touchdowns, 4.55 receptions (on 5.73 targets), 29.91 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Raiders head coach, Jon Gruden, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Gruden has had his running back room average 22.74 carries, 95.04 rushing yards, 0.54 rushing touchdowns, 4.73 receptions (on 6.72 targets), 37.29 receiving yards, and 0.07 receiving touchdowns per game in the 256 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 172 games that Greg Olson had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Olson has had his running back room average 20.62 carries, 84.26 rushing yards, 0.44 rushing touchdowns, 4.99 receptions (on 6.62 targets), 38.69 receiving yards, and 0.08 receiving touchdowns per game.

Looking at this data, a couple things are apparent. The first is that this past Sunday was pretty much the worst-case scenario for the Raiders running backs and there will be better performances than that going forward. The second aspect we notice is that the 2020 season rushing totals are on the higher end of what we'd expect from a Jon Gruden/Greg Olson running back room, with carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns above their career averages prior to this season. If previous coaching tendencies hold up, there will be a slight regression from the current rushing totals down the stretch this season. On the flip side, the Raiders running backs are also being utilized less frequently than we've come to expect from a Jon Gruden/Greg Olson running back room, and there could be a slight increase there if previous coaching tendencies kick into play. Overall, expect improved performances from Sunday and a neutral change from the season totals (slight decrease in rushing game usage and a slight increase in passing game usage) down the stretch for the Raiders running backs.

Fantasy players this impacts: Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker

Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receivers

Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan

The Bengals lost to the New York Giants in a close matchup 19-17. In this game, the Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers struggled without Joe Burrow, combining for eight receptions on 16 targets for 59 receiving yards and a touchdown.

After this performance, on the season the Bengals wide receiver room is averaging 16.91 receptions, 27.27 targets, 188.27 receiving yards, and 0.91 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Bengals head coach, Zac Taylor, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Taylor has had his wide receiver room average 13.24 receptions on 23.86 targets for 173.57 receiving yards and 0.57 receiving touchdowns per game in the 21 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 16 games that Brian Callahan had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Callahan has had his wide receiver room average 13.31 receptions on 24.25 targets for 172.25 receiving yards and 0.56 receiving touchdowns per game.

The 2020 Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers are in a tough situation without Joe Burrow. Their 2020 season totals were already running the higher end of what we'd expect from these coaches (or any coaches for that matter) and we should expect their season averages to drop a bit - even if they do have better receiving stat lines than this past Sunday.

Fantasy players this impacts: Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, and Auden Tate

New York Giants Wide Receivers

Jason Garrett

The New York Giants won a tight matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, 19-17. In this game, the New York Giants wide receivers combined for 12 receptions on 20 targets for 111 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Giants wide receiver room is averaging 11.45 receptions on 17.18 targets for 134.64 receiving yards and 0.55 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the New York Giants offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Garrett has had his wide receiver room average 11.43 receptions on 18.88 targets for 160.30 receiving yards and 1.26 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

Looking at this data, the New York Giants wide receivers performed below what we've come to expect from a Jason Garrett wide receiver room this past Sunday. In addition, looking at the season totals this has been one of the least utilized wide receiver rooms of Jason Garrett's career, and suggests that there could be some improvement from this group in the last few games (this may depend on the severity of starting quarterback Daniel Jones' hamstring injury as well).

Fantasy players this impacts: Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Golden Tate

Tennessee Titans Tight Ends

Arthur Smith

The Tennessee Titans destroyed the Indianapolis Colts this past Sunday 45-26. In the game, the Tennessee Titans tight ends combined for three receptions on four targets for 30 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Tennessee Titans tight end room is averaging 6.18 receptions on 9.18 targets for 62.36 receiving yards and 0.82 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Titans offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, has traditionally gotten out of his tight end room in his time in an offensive coordinator role. Smith has had his tight end room average 4.75 receptions on 6.69 targets for 59.25 receiving yards and 0.44 receiving touchdowns per game in the 16 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season.

Despite the win, Sunday's game script didn't pan out well for the Tennessee Titans tight ends and it led to a performance worse than we've come to expect from this position group. Looking at the season totals for the Titans tight ends, they are currently higher than they were last year with Arthur Smith at the helm but given Jonnu Smith's breakout season and Arthur Smith's tight ends coaching background they have a good shot at maintaining this pace. Expect better performances from this past Sunday and the position group to perform around the level we've come accustomed to from the Titans tight ends the past two years.

Fantasy players this impacts: Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser

Minnesota Vikings Running Backs

Gary Kubiak

The Vikings pulled out a dramatic 28-27 come from behind victory against the Carolina Panthers on the back of Kirk Cousins and the passing game this past Sunday. In this game, the Minnesota Vikings running backs combined for 20 carries, 67 rushing yards, four receptions (on four targets), and 21 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Minnesota Vikings running back room is averaging 27.09 carries, 135.73 rushing yards, 1.27 rushing touchdowns, 3.73 receptions, 4.36 targets, 31.36 receiving yards, and 0.18 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Kubiak has had his running back room average 25.27 carries, 113.12 rushing yards, 0.86 rushing touchdowns, 3.55 receptions, 4.92 targets, 27.83 receiving yards, and 0.10 receiving touchdowns per game in the 349 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

Gary Kubiak has been the running back whisperer over the course of his career, and it's clear that Sunday's poor performance is a 'floor game' for the Minnesota Vikings running backs. Going forward, expect the Vikings running backs to bounce back and return to putting up elite running back production.

Fantasy players this impacts: Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison

New England Patriots Wide Receivers

Josh McDaniels

The New England Patriots aren't quite done yet! The Patriots won on a game-winning field goal as time expired against the Arizona Cardinals. Despite this victory, the Patriots wide receivers struggled, combining for eight receptions on 16 targets for 85 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Patriots wide receiver room is averaging 11 receptions on 17.27 targets for 138.82 receiving yards and 0.18 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Patriots offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. McDaniels has had his wide receiver room average 13.40 receptions on 21.76 targets for 164.85 receiving yards and 1.04 receiving touchdowns per game in the 220 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

This position group has been featured in this series quite a bit this year. While most fantasy players expected a drop in production from the Patriots offense after Tom Brady left, it probably was not to the level that the group is currently performing at...especially since McDaniels was able to get solid production out of his wide receiver room when he coached in Denver and St. Louis. Going forward there should be some improvement from this group, but outside of Jakobi Meyers none of the receivers will be fantasy relevant this year.

Fantasy players this impacts: Jakobi Meyers, Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry, and Damiere Byrd 

Arizona Cardinals Wide Receivers

Kliff Kingsbury

The Arizona Cardinals lost a 20-17 nail-biter against the New England Patriots this past Sunday on a last-second field goal. In this game the Arizona Cardinals wide receivers struggled, combining for 13 receptions on 20 targets for 114 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Arizona Cardinals wide receiver room is averaging 16.18 receptions on 23.45 targets for 187.09 receiving yards and 1.09 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 11 games of the season.

Now let's compare this to what the Cardinals head coach, Kliff Kingsbury, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time as a head coach. Kingsbury has had his wide receiver room average 14.88 receptions on 23.69 targets for 168.44 receiving yards and 0.81 receiving touchdowns per game in the 16 games he coached as an NFL head coach prior to this season.

Looking at all this data, the Cardinals wide receivers clearly did not perform to what we've come to expect from Kliff Kingsbury's offense this past Sunday. As for the 2020 season totals, the usage is similar to Kingsbury's offense last year with the Cardinals wide receivers receiving about 23.5 targets. The one thing that has changed from last year is the efficiency from this group, but that can be easily explained by Kyler Murray's improvement as well as the addition of star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Going forward, we should expect better performances from this past Sunday against the Patriots with maybe a slight dip in receiving efficiency from the current 2020 Arizona Cardinals season totals.

Fantasy players this impacts: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andy Isabella

Los Angeles Rams Tight Ends

Sean McVay & Kevin O'Connell 

The Los Angeles Rams lost 23-20 against their division rival, the San Francisco 49ers this past Sunday. In this game, the Rams passing game was subpar and the tight ends, in particular, struggled, combining for three receptions on four targets for 22 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Rams tight end room is averaging 5.45 receptions on 7.09 targets for 61.09 receiving yards and 0.36 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Rams head coach, Sean McVay, has historically gotten out of his tight end room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. McVay has had his tight end room average 5.59 receptions on 7.81 targets for 60.88 receiving yards and 0.36 receiving touchdowns per game in the 96 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 16 games that Kevin O'Connell had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, O'Connell has had his tight end room average 2.75 receptions on 4.56 targets for 29.19 receiving yards and 0.19 receiving touchdowns per game.

Looking at all this data it's clear that the Rams tight ends are going to better days than this past Sunday. In addition, the 2020 season totals are nearly identical with what Sean McVay has gotten out of his tight end room in the 96 games prior to this season. There's not a huge buy-low opportunity here, but if you are rostering Tyler Higbee or Gerald Everett be aware that they will bounce-back.

Fantasy players this impacts: Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett

Denver Broncos Wide Receivers

Pat Shurmur

In an unprecedented situation, the Denver Broncos had all of their quarterbacks declared out less than 24 hours before game-time in order to follow the NFL's COVID protocols on close contacts. Due to this situation, the Broncos were forced to start their practice squad wide receiver, Kendall Hinton, at quarterback against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. While Hinton showed a ton of heart, he was put in an impossible situation and the Broncos lost to the Saints 31-3. In the game, the Denver Broncos wide receivers failed to catch any of their four targets and the team only completed one pass for 13 receiving yards to tight end Noah Fant during the entire game.

After this performance, on the season the Broncos wide receiver room is averaging 10.72 receptions on 19.91 targets for 153.82 receiving yards and 0.72 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Broncos offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, has traditionally gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. In his career, Shurmur had his wide receiver room average 12.04 receptions on 20.36 targets for 150.47 receiving yards and 0.88 receiving touchdowns per game in the 169 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

Given they had zero receptions, there is no way that the Broncos wide receivers have a day worse than this past Sunday. Looking at the season totals, the 2020 Broncos wide receivers are being targeted ever so slightly less than Pat Shurmur's offenses have normally been, but it's hard to put too much stock into that. There isn't a huge buy-low opportunity here, but if you roster one of the Denver Broncos wide receivers rest assured that they will return to perform around their season totals.

Fantasy players this impacts: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler

New Orleans Saints Wide Receivers

Sean Payton & Pete Carmichael

The Saints won in a run-heavy game against the Denver Broncos, 31-3. In this game, the Saints didn't need to pass much and it caused their wide receivers to have a subpar game, combining for six receptions on eight targets for 70 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the New Orleans Saints wide receiver room is averaging 11.72 receptions on 16.27 targets for 123.64 receiving yards and 0.64 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Saints head coach, Sean Payton, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Payton has had his wide receiver room average 12.42 receptions on 19.11 targets for 172.77 receiving yards and 1.15 receiving touchdowns per game in the 256 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

In addition, in the 176 games that Pete Carmichael had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Carmichael has had his wide receiver room average 13.09 receptions on 19.29 targets for 177.53 receiving yards and 1.18 receiving touchdowns per game.

The Saints-Broncos game was an anomaly from any modern football game where neither team threw the ball much. And looking at the 2020 season statistics for the New Orleans Saints wide receivers they are being utilized less frequently and putting up lower numbers than nearly every season Sean Payton or Pete Carmichael has coached prior. There should be improved performances from this group going forward, and if the Saints start to utilize their wide receivers to the levels Payton and Carmichael have in the past this may be an excellent buy-low opportunity for fantasy football players.

Fantasy players this impacts: Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Tre'Quan Smith

Philadelphia Eagles Running Backs

Doug Pederson

The Eagles lost to the Seattle Seahawks 23-17 in a game where Carson Wentz threw the ball 45 times. In this game, the Philadelphia Eagles running backs combined for nine carries, 28 rushing yards, seven receptions (on nine targets), and 47 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Philadelphia Eagles running back room is averaging 17.27 carries, 86.64 rushing yards, 0.45 rushing touchdowns, 4.09 receptions, 6.55 targets, 29.36 receiving yards, and 0.09 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what the Philadelphia Eagles head coach, Doug Pederson, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Pederson has had his running back room average 22.63 carries, 99.18 rushing yards, 0.86 rushing touchdowns, 4.74 receptions, 6.62 targets, 41.18 receiving yards, and 0.30 receiving touchdowns per game in the 112 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.

It's inexplicable that the Eagles only gave their running backs nine carries against the Seattle Seahawks this past Monday night. Looking at the season totals, the 2020 Eagles are utilizing their running backs significantly less than any other season that Doug Pederson has been an offensive coordinator or head coach. Going forward, there should be a bump up in running back usage down the stretch if Doug Pederson resorts to his previous trends, and this could be a potential buy-low opportunity on this position group.

Fantasy players this impacts: Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Corey Clement

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