RADIO
Scouting minor league lines is often an inexact science. Occasionally, you'll see a guy who seems likely to succeed right away (Rhys Hoskins last year). Sometimes, a guy's complete lack of minor league production leaves you confident that it will take a few years (Byron Buxton), if it ever clicks.
Most guys don't fit into either camp. There are some trends in their minor league histories that seem promising, but others that send up red flags. Two recent callups fall into this tweener category: Pirates pitcher Nick Kingham and Yankees prospect Miguel Andujar.
Let's see if we can discover what the future holds for these popular waiver wire additions.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Nick Kingham (SP, PIT) 41% Owned
Kingham made his presence known in his MLB debut against the Cardinals, taking a perfect game into the seventh inning en route to seven innings of shutout ball with nine strikeouts. The 26-year old is older than you might expect, as 2015 Tommy John surgery derailed his career. Ultimately, it may have been the best thing for him.
Kingham's minor track record is best described as meh, at least before this season. He debuted in the High Minors with 73 1/3 IP at Double-A Altoona in 2013. His 2.70 ERA was shiny, but his underlying peripherals (3.81 xFIP, 22% K%, 9.6% BB%) were more innings eater than fantasy stud. His 1.3% HR/FB was absurdly low, making future regression a reasonable bet.
Kingham returned to Altoona for 71 IP in 2014. His ERA (3.04) was again better than his xFIP (4.18), largely due to a pedestrian K% (17.6%), relatively high BB% (8.1% BB%), and minuscule HR/FB (3.3%). It earned him a trip to Triple-A Indianapolis, where he tossed 88 innings of 3.58 ERA, 4.04 xFIP ball. Again, his strikeouts were underwhelming (18% K%) while his HR/FB was microscopic (5.7%).
The Pirates started Kingham at Triple-A in 2015, but he threw only 31 1/3 innings before undergoing his Tommy John procedure. They were weird innings by Kingham standards, as both his K% (23.5%) and HR/FB (10.3%) drifted toward the league average. As a result, his xFIP (2.79) was considerably better than his ERA (4.31 ) for the first time in his career.
Kingham had 46 IP across three levels in 2016 as he attempted to return from his injury, and the results were ugly. However, pitchers often struggle when they first come back from a year off, so there's no reason to penalize him for the lost season.
Kingham made it back to Triple-A last year, throwing 113 1/3 competent innings. His 4.13 ERA and 3.96 xFIP were roughly in agreement with each other, but not terribly exciting from a fantasy perspective. His 6.7% HR/FB suggested that some of his old form was back, but he again failed to pile up strikeouts (19.3% K%). He looked like a major league innings eater, if he was a major leaguer at all.
Kingham's Triple-A stay in 2018 was brief (22 2/3 IP), but it was enticing. His 1.59 ERA was beyond elite, and the underlying 2.99 xFIP suggested that it was real. His K% skyrocketed to 30.3%, making his 7.9% BB% perfectly palatable. MLB.com suggests that Kingham introduced a slider to his repertoire for the first time this season, explaining the K% spike.
We don't know how the slider performed on the farm, but it devastated the Cardinals. They couldn't track it at all (76.5% chase rate), swinging through it 34.4% of the time. Kingham can also throw it for a strike when he wants to (46.9% Zone% in his first start), suggesting that it can be a weapon in all situations. If this new pitch is even half as good as it looked in his first start, Kingham is a factor in the major leagues.
The rest of his repertoire is promising as well. His heater averaged 94 mph against the Cards with an average spin rate of 2,374 RPM. The spin is important because high-spin fastballs are known to limit damage on fly balls allowed. Kingham's claim to fame before his slider was tiny HR/FB ratios at every stop, and a strong spin rate suggests that at least some of that was skill.
To be fair, Kingham was also helped by his home ballparks. Altoona played slightly hitter-friendly overall from 2014-2016, with ballpark factors of 1.014 for runs scored and 1.011 for hits. However, it suppressed power substantially (0.732). Indianapolis is where offense goes to die, posting a 0.900 factor for runs scored despite a 1.013 mark for hits by making it virtually impossible to homer (0.656). These ballparks almost certainly contributed to Kingham's minor league success.
That said, PNC Park should help Kingham as well. Pittsburgh had a FanGraphs HR factor of 92 in 2017, tying it with Kansas City for the third-hardest park to homer in last season. It also suppressed overall run scoring over the last five years (98, tied for 11th). If any of Kingham's HR/FB suppression on the farm was real, his home park should compliment it well.
Kingham also featured a sinker, curve, and change in his start against the Cardinals. The sinker has a much lower spin rate than his 4-seamer (2,196 RPM), but not quite low enough to induce a lot of ground balls. This probably explains why Kingham's FB% hovered around 40% at most of his minor league stops. His curve has strikeout upside (14.3% SwStr% vs. STL), but the change is just a show-me pitch.
The fantasy-viable version of Kingham has only existed for about 30 IP between Triple-A and the Pirates combined, and there is always risk in trusting a sample size that small. The repertoire and environment seem to work in his favor though, so he might be worth rolling the dice on if you need a strong arm for your staff.
Verdict: Champ
Miguel Andujar (3B, NYY) 64% Owned
Andujar's production to date has been solid (.287/.300/.552 with three homers in 90 PAs), inspiring many owners to add him to their roster. He had eight PAs with the Yankees last year, but again the track record is short enough that we're looking at minor league numbers.
Andujar made his High Minors debut in 2016 with Double-A Trenton. He wasn't great in his 319 PAs, slashing .266/.323/.358 with two homers, two steals, and a CS. His FB% was fine (37.8%), but had very little oomph behind it (2.2% HR/FB). He didn't strikeout at all (13.2% K%) while working his fair share of walks (6.6% BB%), making plate discipline the only remotely interesting aspect of his profile.
Andujar returned to Trenton last year, slashing a much better .312/.342/.494 with seven homers and two steals (three CS) in 272 PAs. His FB% plummeted to 29.4%, fueling a BABIP increase from .296 in 2016 to .338. His HR/FB rebounded to a league average rate (11.1%), but it still wasn't high enough to project much power in the big leagues. He stopped walking (4.4% BB%), but continued to avoid the K (14% K%).
The Yankees liked what they saw and promoted him to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He slashed .317/.364/.502 with nine homers and three steals over 250 PAs at the level, building on his Double-A performance. His FB% increased somewhat (32.6%), while his raw power finally flashed above average (14.8% HR/FB). The walks came back (6.8% BB%) and Andujar continued to make contact (13.2% K%), likely giving him a relatively high floor for a 23-year old in his first taste of the majors.
Of course, a .280 hitter buried in the bottom half of his team's lineup does little to move the fantasy needle. While it's an admittedly small sample, Andujar's MLB performance suggests continued growth beyond what he was able to achieve on the farm. Statcast loves his contact quality (95.6 mph average airborne exit velocity, 11.6% rate of Brls/BBE), suggesting that he is finally living up to the power projections scouts always gave him. He has also increased his FB% to a solid 37.7%, giving him a much better base to work from than he had last year.
Environment is also a factor in the discrepancy between his MiLB and MLB performances. Trenton is a pitcher's park (0.928 for runs scored, 0.805 for HR), potentially forcing Andujar to change his approach for his stay there. Likewise, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre is also pitcher-friendly (0.919 for runs, 0.879 for HR). By contrast, Yankee Stadium was the third best ballpark for right-handed power hitters in 2017 (112 HR factor).
Andujar hasn't walked much in the majors yet (3.1% BB% career), and his chase rate this season has been atrocious (37.1%). His 90.1% Z-Contact% this season borders on elite though, suggesting that his contact skills are already translating. His 19.4% career K% is hardly a problem, but is likely to improve as his eye does.
Overall, Andujar shouldn't hurt his fantasy owners. His Statcast contact quality supports reasonable power numbers, and he figures to have the contact skills to hit for a plus average. The biggest risk is the quality of his own teammates, who may keep him from accumulating as many counting stats (and even PAs) as he deserves.
Verdict: Champ
