X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Jay Bruce & Ryan Zimmerman

Fantasy baseball owners tend to roster two types of players. The first type is the flavor of the moment, whoever is hot lately or has scouts drooling over their potential. The second type is the boring veteran whose track record is so consistent he has to be valued highly. This approach frequently leaves the players with extensive MLB experience but little recent success on the waiver wire to start the season.

Sometimes these players become fantasy-relevant by starting out so hot that they turn into the flavor of the moment. Two such examples this year are Jay Bruce and Ryan Zimmerman. Are these forgotten faces back on our radar, or are they destined to return to waiver ignominy?

As always, ownership rates provided are from FleaFlicker formats.

Featured Promo: Get any MLB Premium Pass FREE ($119 value) AND up to a $200 deposit match when you sign up with Rival Fantasy. Rival offers 6 and 12-team Best Ball, weekly and daily contests, for as little as $3 per entry. No roster management, just draft and Rival sets your best lineup automatically. Playing fantasy baseball has never been easier! Sign Up Today!

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Jay Bruce (OF/1B, NYM) 91% Owned

Bruce remaining in New York may have been the offseason move most panned by fantasy owners last year, as he was viewed as nothing more than a Michael Conforto roadblock to start the year. The roadblock is hitting pretty well, slashing .286/.375/.600 with nine homers to start the campaign. Conforto is playing right now too, so fantasy owners can take a closer look at Bruce with a clear conscience.

When they do, they will find a legitimate slugger. Bruce is hitting a ton of fly balls (52.9 percent FB%), giving his batted balls plenty of opportunities to leave the yard. He has always been great at elevating the ball (42.2 percent FB% career), so this fly ball tendency should continue going forward. His HR/FB of 20 percent will probably regress, as his raw power is lackluster by both Barrels per Batted Ball Event (8.1 percent) and exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (92.8 mph). Still, he'll get his homers as long as he keeps hitting flies.

His batting average figures to be more problematic. First, his strong 15.8 percent K-rate is completely unsupported by his SwStr% (11.7 percent). A SwStr% of 12 percent produced a K% of 21.4 percent last year, which seems like a reasonable projection for the rest of this year. Bruce is also extremely shiftable, tallying just nine PAs this year without the shift in place. This fact, combined with his fly ball-heavy approach, means that he should not be expected to improve much on his .273 BABIP.

The net result is likely a .250 hitter with 25-30 home runs. Bruce will outperform that baseline somewhat by virtue of his favorable batting order slot (generally third or fourth), which will give him real utility in deeper formats. He also has six games at first base, adding positional versatility to his profile. His current ownership level still seems way too high though. He lacks elite power, and could still lose playing time if other Mets get healthy. Owners in shallow formats can safely look elsewhere.

Verdict: Chump

 

Ryan Zimmerman (1B, WAS) 84% Owned

Why is Bruce owned in more leagues than Zimmerman? Zimmerman is currently hitting .433/.474/.885 with 12 HR in 114 PAs. That's insane! You would expect some outrageous peripheral stats to accompany a line like that, and you would be right. Neither his .478 BABIP nor his 40 percent HR/FB are sustainable for an entire season. The question is whether he will remain a strong option after the inevitable regression.

Much has been made of Zimmerman elevating the ball more often, but the numbers do not suggest that he has actually done so (FB% of 37 percent against a career average of 36.4 percent). He is hitting more line drives (23.5 percent LD% vs. 16.7 percent a year ago), but LD% bounces around too often to use it as conclusive evidence of a change in approach. His career LD% is 19 percent, suggesting that both 2016 and 2017 are flukes anyway.

While his approach has not changed appreciably, his quality of contact has. His airborne baseballs (flies and liners) have an average exit velocity of 99.6 mph this season, significantly north of the 95.8 mph they averaged last year or the 95.1 mph he averaged in 2015. He also ranks second in MLB in Barrels (16), compiling an excellent Brls/BBE of 19.8 percent against figures of 7 percent and 10.5 percent the previous two years. Zimmerman was hobbled by injuries in both earlier seasons, but Statcast data does not go back any further. Therefore, it is difficult to conclude whether a healthy Zimmerman always hit the ball this hard or if he is just on a long hot streak.

Regardless, he is due for significant regression. Zimmerman is also far from a lock to stay healthy all year, making him a risky bet to continue his torrid pace even if all he needs to do so is health. You should probably look to sell high if possible.

Verdict: Chump

 

More Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tip Reiman8 mins ago

Cardinals Take Tip Reiman At No. 82
Roman Wilson13 mins ago

Selected 84th Overall By Steelers
Blake Corum17 mins ago

Rams Select Blake Corum With 83rd Pick
Jermaine Burton18 mins ago

Taken At No. 80 By Cincinnati
Yandy Díaz32 mins ago

Yandy Diaz Hit By Pitch, Leaves Game Early
Jasson Domínguez44 mins ago

Jasson Dominguez A Few Weeks Away From Rehab Games
Alex Cobb54 mins ago

Still Feeling Soreness In Shoulder, Will See Doctor
Trey Benson1 hour ago

Cardinals Select Trey Benson With The 66th Pick
Malachi Corley1 hour ago

Jets Trade Up To Select Malachi Corley
Bobby Witt Jr.1 hour ago

Hits Triple, Has Three-RBI Day
Ben Sinnott2 hours ago

Taken At No. 53 On Friday Night
Adonai Mitchell2 hours ago

Colts Snag Adonai Mitchell At No. 52
Jonathon Brooks2 hours ago

Panthers Trade Up To Select Jonathon Brooks
New Orleans Saints3 hours ago

Saints Take Kool-Aid McKinstry At No. 41
Delon Wright3 hours ago

Questionable For Game 3
Daniel Gafford3 hours ago

Will Play In Game 3
Keon Coleman3 hours ago

Bills Select Keon Coleman At Pick 33
Vaughn Grissom3 hours ago

Could Be Activated On Tuesday
Kawhi Leonard4 hours ago

Available On Friday Evening
Anthony Rendon4 hours ago

Dealing With Partial Hamstring Tear
Terry Rozier4 hours ago

Out Again For Game 3
Giancarlo Stanton4 hours ago

Absent On Friday
Jackson Merrill4 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Manny Machado4 hours ago

Returning On Friday
Josh Lowe4 hours ago

Appears Ready To Return
Deebo Samuel5 hours ago

Bills, Patriots Unlikely To Trade For Deebo Samuel
Nicolas Hague5 hours ago

Not Ready To Return On Saturday
Justus Annunen5 hours ago

Available On Friday
Ricky Tiedemann5 hours ago

Hoping To Throw In 7-10 Days
Luis Robert Jr.5 hours ago

Could Be Back By Mid-May
Rasmus Sandin5 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Walker Buehler5 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Start Tuesday
Nick Jensen5 hours ago

Could Be Back In Action Friday
Ivan Miroshnichenko5 hours ago

Makes Stanley Cup Playoffs Debut
Wade Miley6 hours ago

Needs Tommy John Surgery
Sonny Milano6 hours ago

Ready For Action
Khris Middleton6 hours ago

Upgraded To Active For Game 3
NYR6 hours ago

Alex Wennberg Good To Go Friday
Grayson Allen6 hours ago

Remains Questionable For Game 3
Kyle Anderson6 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Game 3
Tennessee Titans6 hours ago

JC Latham To Play Left Tackle For Tennessee
Giannis Antetokounmpo6 hours ago

Ruled Out For Game 3
Matthew Stafford6 hours ago

Seeking Reworked Contract
Masyn Winn6 hours ago

Getting A Breather
Triston Casas6 hours ago

Has Torn Rib Cartilage
Kodai Senga7 hours ago

To Face Hitters On Monday
J.D. Martinez7 hours ago

Hitting Fifth In Mets Debut
Jesús Luzardo7 hours ago

Marlins Put Jesus Luzardo On Injured List
Deebo Samuel8 hours ago

Bills Have Interest In Trading For Deebo Samuel
Jacoby Brissett8 hours ago

Drake Maye To Compete With Jacoby Brissett
Tommy Pham8 hours ago

Selected From Triple-A
Jonathon Brooks9 hours ago

Cowboys High On Jonathon Brooks
Ezekiel Elliott9 hours ago

Reunion With Cowboys Is Imminent
Deebo Samuel9 hours ago

Patriots Discussed Trading For Deebo Samuel Prior To Draft
Jackson Holliday9 hours ago

Sent Back To Minors
Alex Perez10 hours ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Matheus Nicolau10 hours ago

Returns To Action At UFC Vegas 91
Ariane Lipski10 hours ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Karine Silva10 hours ago

Looks For Ninth Victory In A Row
David Onama10 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 91
Jonathan Pearce10 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Donovan Mitchell11 hours ago

Struggles In Game 3
Paolo Banchero11 hours ago

Dominates In Game 3
Anthony Davis11 hours ago

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Loss
Nikola Jokic12 hours ago

Just One Assist Shy Of Triple-Double In Game 3
Aaron Gordon12 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double
Tyler Myers12 hours ago

On Track To Return Friday
Jesper Fast12 hours ago

Unlikely To Feature In The Playoffs
Matthew Tkachuk12 hours ago

Bags Two Goals In Game 3 Victory
Steven Stamkos12 hours ago

Scores Third Postseason Goal
Ilya Sorokin12 hours ago

Lasts 27 Minutes In Game 3
Frederik Andersen13 hours ago

Stops 29 Pucks In Another Win
Cincinnati Bengals22 hours ago

Bengals Have No Plans To Trade Trey Hendrickson
Justin Herbert23 hours ago

Patriots, Vikings Reached Out Regarding Justin Herbert
Mitchell Robinson23 hours ago

Injured Again On Thursday
Jalen Brunson23 hours ago

Has Another Big Game
Tyrese Maxey23 hours ago

Helps Philly Take Game 3
Joel Embiid24 hours ago

Dominates In Game 3
Olivier-Maxence Prosper1 day ago

Won't Play In Game 3
Kawhi Leonard1 day ago

Questionable For Game 3
Stephen Curry1 day ago

Named Clutch Player Of The Year
Joel Embiid1 day ago

Good To Go Thursday
Sonny Milano1 day ago

Misses Practice On Thursday
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Joins Rangers For Trip To Washington
Jesper Fast1 day ago

Remains Out On Thursday
Matt Martin1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Anton Lundell1 day ago

Takes Over As Second-Line Center Thursday
Ryan Lomberg1 day ago

Ruled Out For Game 3
Alex Vlasic1 day ago

Inks Six-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Kyle Okposo1 day ago

To Suit Up In Game 3
Uros Medic2 days ago

A Massive Favorite At UFC Vegas 91
Tim Means2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 91
Austen Lane2 days ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Jhonata Diniz2 days ago

Making UFC Debut
Bogdan Guskov2 days ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Vegas 91
Ryan Spann2 days ago

Looks To Snap Losing Skid At UFC Vegas 91
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Survives At Talladega For First Win Of 2024
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

Finishes Second At Talladega After Last-Lap Wreck
Anthony Alfredo4 days ago

Gets Best Finish For Beard Motorsports Since 2022
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

One Of The Strongest At Talladega
NASCAR5 days ago

Bubba Wallace Finishes 36th At Talladega Superspeedway
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Fails To Deliver Value In DFS At Talladega
NASCAR5 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Fourth At Talladega
Noah Gragson5 days ago

Surprisingly The Most Consistent Driver At Talladega
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Acquits Himself Nicely In Drafting Debut
Michael McDowell5 days ago

Ends Talladega Wrecked From The Lead
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Quietly Captures Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Daniel Hemric5 days ago

Surges To Ninth-Place Result At Talladega
Harrison Burton5 days ago

Squeezes Into Top 10 At Talladega
NASCAR5 days ago

Bubba Wallace Will Start 14th For the GEICO 500
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Avoid Rostering Tyler Reddick At Talladega?
John Hunter Nemechek5 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster John Hunter Nemechek At Talladega?
Joey Logano5 days ago

Expect Joey Logano To Compete For The Win At Talladega
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Is Denny Hamlin Recommended For Talladega?
Justin Haley5 days ago

Is A Top DFS Value At Talladega
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win Talladega
Christopher Bell6 days ago

Is Best Suited As A Tournament Play At Talladega
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF