Can You Trust David Montgomery In 2024? Fantasy Football Outlook

Following Jahmyr Gibbs' electric rookie season, can fantasy managers trust David Montgomery in 2024? How much value does he still have for fantasy teams? Andrew Ball analyzes the Lions' running back.

David Montgomery runs like a truck commercial: Dependable, rugged, powerful, with tough in his DNA. If people had a Hemi, Montgomery would have one.

Like a truck, there comes a time to trade in for a newer model. Jahmyr Gibbs has a better top speed and can hit that mark quicker.

Still, there's something satisfying watching the ole work truck get the job done. And Montgomery did just that in 2023, tallying double-digit rushing touchdowns as the go-to red zone option. Touchdowns can be a fickle stat year over year, which sparks the question: Can you trust David Montgomery in 2024?

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David Montgomery's 2023 Season Recap

Following a four-year stint in Chicago, Montgomery got everything he wanted in free agency when he signed with Detroit: The same opportunity to be a lead back, money (three years, $18M), and the chance to play for a winning team. Two of those things remained true by the time the season started, but the 12th overall pick of Jahmyr Gibbs changed Montgomery's playing time prospects.

Maybe it was all for the best. Montgomery, statically speaking, celebrated his most successful season as an NFL runner in 2023. In 14 games, Montgomery hit career-best marks in touchdowns (13), yards per carry (4.6), yards per game (72.5), and success rate (54.8%). He also racked up the second 1,000-yard season of his five-year career. All of that led to an RB17 finish with an RB15 points per game (14.8) pace.

We've got @MontgomerDavid joining the fun 🥳️

75 yards for the score!#DETvsLAC |📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/DSNZwZAPhU

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 12, 2023

Now for the negatives. Because of the addition of Gibbs, Montgomery wasn't called upon in the passing game. The 27-year-old snagged 16 receptions and 117 receiving yards total. Gibbs finished in the top 10 for running back receptions. There were clear, identified roles for the pair. It was successful, with Montgomery and Gibbs becoming the first duo in league history to combine for 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns each.

Will Jahmyr Gibbs Command More Touches In 2024?

Gibbs started the season slow (seven carries apiece in his first two games) as coaches learned to trust the rookie. On the other hand, Montgomery saw 21 and 16 carries (the latter on just 45% of snaps) in his first two games, respectively, before sitting out Week 3. By the time the regular season ended, the difference between the two was marginal. Gibbs totaled 234 touches in 15 games. Montgomery earned 235 touches in 14 appearances.

The then-rookie bested the veteran in nearly every efficiency metric, and he almost doubled the number of breakaway runs.

For anyone who tuned in to a Lions' game last season, it was painfully obvious who the more talented running back was. That's not a slight on Montgomery, either. Gibbs is electric with the football in his hands. Lions general manager Brad Holmes noted earlier this offseason that Gibbs could have an even bigger role in 2024. Will there be a drastic shift in touches? That's doubtful. Think of Montgomery and Gibbs switching roles as the 1A and 1B.

In order to truly take over the backfield, Gibbs will have to improve his pass-blocking skills. According to PFF, Gibbs graded out as the 61st-best pass-blocking running back in 2023. That's out of 63 qualified backs. If he can't protect the $134 million man, Jared Goff, then Montgomery will continue to see those snaps (not that they are high-profile snaps for fantasy football anyway, but I digress).

Can You Trust David Montgomery For Fantasy Football In 2024?

Once is a coincidence, and twice is a trend. The Detriot Lions under Dan Campbell love to deploy a two-back system, one of which is designated as the short yardage runner. Jamaal Williams held that title in 2022 when he scored 14 times inside the five-yard line. Montgomery didn't quite live up to his predecessor but finished with nine touchdowns on the fourth-most carries inside the five (17).

That role probably won't change much, even though Gibbs got his fair share of red zone touches. With Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, one of the league's best offensive lines, and this running back duo, the Lions will repeat as one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Lions averaged the third-most yards (394.8) and fifth-most points (27.1) in 2023.

PFF's 2023 blocking ranks for Lions projected 2024 OL

LT Taylor Decker = 9th best OT
LG Graham Glasgow = 8th G
C Frank Ragnow = No. 1 C
RG Kevin Zeitler = 15 G
RT Penei Sewell = No. 1 OT

FWIW, Sewell and Ragnow were PFF's No. 1 and 3 OL overall, regardless of position.

— Erik Schlitt (@erikschlitt) March 19, 2024

Like last year, fantasy managers don't need to invest heavily in Montgomery. He's currently being selected 74th overall, on average, in fantasy drafts. That's the beginning of the sixth round. The pressure is off fantasy managers relying on him to be their RB1 (unless, of course, they opt for a Zero RB strategy). He's not the sexiest selection, but you can trust David Montgomery to put up RB2 numbers for at least one more season, especially in non-PPR formats. The shiny new toy will go early, but don't forget about the reliable one.

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