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Buy, Sell, or Hold: Richaun Holmes and Blake Griffin


I'm sure most of us are familiar with the strategy of selling a player high when he is on a roll, and with buying another low when he is playing poorly. This is usually a smart move, as streaks tend to end, and when they do we're left with the better player.

I've taken a look at some underperformers for you to pursue and overperformers to try and bait your rivals into purchasing fresh out of the oven. Out of this bunch, I selected the two that stand out on both ends.

Although these guys are the prime Sell High and Buy Low candidates for Week 8 of the NBA season, be sure to take into consideration how good you believe they will be for the rest of the season. My thoughts on them now and their long-term outlook are below.

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Buy Low, Sell High Advice for Week 8

Are You for Real, Richaun Holmes?

After being a waiver wire pickup in most leagues, Holmes has rewarded those who believed in him. And with averages of 12.5 PTS on 66.9 FG% and 79.3 FT%, 8.6 REB, 1.0 AST, 1.0 STL, 1.4 BLK, and 0.9 TO in 29 minutes per game - it's no small reward either. This has Holmes inside the top-25 on Yahoo for the season.

Believe it or not, Richaun has been even better recently and he is in the top-10 for the last month, last 14 days and is at #4 in the last week! That is some consistent contribution from the 26-year-old.

Now Holmes has always been a per-minute monster, but never got enough court time to really shine. This season with the Kings, his great performances helped him overtake Dewayne Dedmon in the pecking order as the starting center and he is relishing the opportunity.

It has to be said that all this is coming with Marvin Bagley, arguably the most talented player in Sacramento, on the shelf with an injury that has held him out since the opening game of the season on Oct 24. So one might expect Holmes' stats to go down slightly when Bagley returns - most likely during this week.

Still, Bagley is expected to take most minutes away from Nemanja Bjelica and Trevor Ariza at the PF spot, which would still leave Holmes playing at least 25 minutes a game - more than enough time for him to keep a top-50, perhaps even a top-30 pace.

Now, Richaun Holmes is not a sexy name, and you might have a difficult time selling him high because of this. And I believe that, unless you're getting a player of Nikola Vucevic's or John Collins' caliber, you shouldn't even bother.

On the other hand, an owner might undervalue Holmes because he appears to be a prime sell-high candidate and let him go for a guy outside the top-50. If you can find a deal for Richaun where you give someone that sounds sexier like Aaron Gordon or Danilo Gallinari back, I would definitely consider pulling the trigger.

Baller Move: Sell very high, hold or even buy "low"

 

Time to Panic on Blake Griffin?

If I told you that this guy is averaging 18.2 points with 1.8 three-pointers on 39.9% from the field and 77.3% from the charity stripe, 4.9 boards, 3.3 dimes, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 2.8 turnovers in almost 30 minutes per outing and is sitting ranked at #240 on Yahoo, how many guesses would it take for you to come to Blake Griffin?

Now let's compare this to Griffin's career averages of 21.8 PTS with 0.7 3PM on 50.0 FG% and 69.4 FT%, 8.9 REB, 4.4 AST, 0.9 STL, 0.5 BLK, and 2.6 TO in 35 minutes per game. That's quite a noticeable dropoff in most fantasy-relevant categories.

Of course, Blake has changed his game quite a bit from back when he was a rookie and plays away from the basket a lot more with his now-developed long-range shot so his free throws and threes are expected to be higher, and his FG% lower. And with Andre Drummond around, there are fewer boards available for the rest of the Pistons. But to be outside of the top-200 is just not something anyone could have anticipated.

With Detroit most likely to be in a fight to clinch playoff birth to the very last game, Blake will be needed for this endeavor to be successful. And I'm not talking about 2019/20 Blake. I'm talking about the real, six-time All-Star Blake. I'm talking about Blake who was averaging 24.5 PTS, 2.5 3PM, 46.2 FG%, 7.5 REB and 5.4 AST just last year. But will he show up?

If you think he will, you should be willing to give up a top-75 asset in order to sway Griffin's owner to give him up. Players like Wendell Carter Jr.T.J. Warren, and Marcus Smart all fit the description of guys who should prove less valuable than Griffin come March. But whether Blake's owner will fall for this offer, or is he still enamored with what Blake was and what he could, once again, be... There's only one way to find out. Ask.

Baller Move: Hold or buy low

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