👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Players at 2B, SS, and C and What It Means For 2016

Having some baseball withdrawal yet? Welcome to the club. That's why I'm starting a weekly series running through November looking at players at each position who experienced breakout campaigns. I'll also run another segment detailing the busts at each position.

This edition will focus on middle infielders and backstops. My selections will be influenced by their respective ADP (Average Draft Position) coming into 2015. That means while Mookie Betts had an excellent season ranking as the No. 3 second baseman, he will not be highlighted due to his high ADP (4th among 2B).

In addition to focusing on breakout players and what went right in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is sustainable or if we were witnessing a fluky season. This is going to be a lengthy piece as we tackle three positions (2B, SS, C) so grab a drink and some popcorn. Let's get started.

 

Breakout Players at 2B

Matt Duffy (SF - 2B, 3B, SS)

2015 Statistics: .295/.334/.428, 77 R, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 12 SB

Before I start, yes I realize Duffy made only seven starts at second base, but in most formats that's enough to retain eligibility. So deal with it.

Duffy is a great example of why you should pay more attention to a player's minor league development. An 18th round pick in the 2012 Amateur Draft, Duffy was fantastic in 2014 for AA-Richmond, compiling a .332/.398/.444 split in 417 PA. After being promoted to the big leagues in 2014 he failed to impress in 64 PA, which may have led to his poor ADP going into 2015.

Duffy was ranked 35th among 2B going into the 2015, behind the likes of Scooter Gennett, Javier Baez, Chris Owings, and Brad Miller. Duffy proved all the doubters wrong, posting a 4.9 WAR (2nd overall among 2B). He didn't lead qualified 2B in any category, but he was a balanced enough contributor in 5x5 formats to rank 8th overall.

So can Duffy repeat his 2015 success? I'm inclined to say no, although I still believe Duffy will be a useful fantasy commodity. His .336 BABIP was 5th among qualified 2B which may be a cause for concern for some, but I think it's sustainable. Check out his spray chart below.

Matt Duffy Spray Chart for 2015 (per FanGraphs)

Matt Duffy Spray Chart for 2015 (per FanGraphs)

Duffy has shown the ability to spread the ball to all fields along with solid plate discipline. His 29.9 O-Swing% (percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone) was 8th among qualified 2B and on par with his minor league numbers.

The stat that concerns me is the .366 average with RISP. That ranked second among hitters with at least 100 PA with RISP, trailing only Nolan Arenado (.373). Is that sustainable? Unlikely. But that doesn't mean the regression will be drastic. Batting in front of Buster Posey means plenty of fastballs. With a healthy Joe Panik and Hunter Pence, the top of the Giants lineup should be formidable once again in 2016. Look for Duffy to remain a top-10 2B option, just don't overpay for his services.

 

Logan Forsythe (TB - 1B, 2B)

2015 Statistics: .281/.359/.444, 69 R, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 9 SB

Here's another name that was on no one's radar coming into 2015. \Forsythe was given an everyday playing opportunity with Tampa Bay and made the most of it, setting career-highs in the respective categories above. His offensive 16.6 runs above average placed him 2nd among all 2B, while his .163 ISO ranked fourth among 2B, ahead of Robinson Cano, Jason Kipnis, and Neil Walker.

So what went right for Forsythe? The biggest adjustment was his ability to handle righties. Check out his splits vs RHP from 2014 to 2015.

Forsythe RvR

Logan Forsythe - Splits vs RHP (2014-2015)

He improved in every facet against righties. The biggest takeaway is the improved bat discipline; a better walk rate means more pitches in hitter-friendly counts. Forsythe's .323 average when ahead in the count exemplifies that.

Can Forsythe translate this success over to 2016? That's hard to bet on. His .323 BABIP and .350 wOBA were both career highs, but he did adjust his plate approach by lifting his leg a bit higher and Rays hitting coach Derek Shelton was adamant with Forsythe about remaining consistent. Fantasy owners are likely to be as skeptical come draft time next year, so Forsythe should come at fair value. His 2016 projections currently have him as a .254 AVG, 13 HR, 61 RBI player. In the shallow pool that is second base, that's a top-10 option.

 

Breakout Players at SS

Carlos Correa (HOU - SS)

2015 Statistics: .279/.345/.512, 52 R, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 14 SB

Go ahead and read that stat line above. Now remind yourself that Carlos Correa is 21 years old. Talk about Dallas Keuchel and Jose Altuve all you want. Without Correa there is no way the Astros make the playoffs in 2015. After joining the team in June, Correa went on to lead all shortstops in HR (22), SLG (.512), wOBA (.365), wRC+ (133), and ISO (.233). And he didn't even eclipse 435 PA. To say the future is bright for Correa is an understatement. He's on pace to melt our faces.

It's almost impossible to find a flaw with Correa. He hits both righties and lefties effectively, and he has power to all fields. If there's one downside it's the home/road splits as he managed to hit .243 away from Minute Maid Park. Minute Maid is a more RHB-friendly environment, but I'm willing to chalk that up as a small sample size. It's definitely not enough to shy away from Correa come draft day.

His current 2016 projections according to Steamer are .275/.340/.458 with 83 R, 22 HR, 84 RBI, and 21 SB. The same amount of homers with an extra 200 AB? I don't think so. Look for Correa to reach 30 HR and become a sure-fire top 15 pick for years to come.

 

Xander Bogaerts (BOS - 3B, SS)

2015 Statistics: .320/.355/.421, 84 R, 7 HR, 81 RBI, 10 SB

Bogaerts wasn't technically a part of the Year of the Rookie but he definitely is included in the youth movement at shortstop. Just 23 years old, Bogaerts led all SS in runs, average, and on-base percentage while trailing only Brandon Crawford (84) in the RBI department. These numbers are quite a leap from his disastrous 2014 campaign (.240/.297/.362). So what changed?

He abandoned the pull-happy tendencies that plagued his 2014 season. His pull rate dropped to 33.8% (46.9% in '14) while going the other way 32.0% of the time (19.3% in '14). As a result his fly ball rate dived from 41.3% to 25.8% and his ground ball rate climbed to 52.7%. To top it all off, the strikeout rate was a career best, minors included.

His .372 BABIP was tops among all shortstops by a large margin (Troy Tulowitski, .331), a number Bogaerts will have difficulty maintaining. He did have 30 infield hits (1st among SS) but he isn't a blazing fast baserunner, leading me to believe regression is due. That isn't to say Bogaerts can't hit .300 again and be a useful fantasy SS. Just don't draft him anticipating a repeat of his .320 average.

Steamer has him projected at 76 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB and a .293/.343/.421 line. Bogaerts should start the year near the top of the Red Sox order. With potential rebound seasons from Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, I think he'll eclipse the projections in R/RBI numbers easily. Draft Bogaerts with confidence in 2016 after the big names are off the board.

 

Brandon Crawford (SF - SS)

2015 Statistics: .256/.321/.462, 65 R, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 6 SB

We all knew Crawford as an above-average defender and fringe fantasy option coming into 2015. He left the season as arguably the best fantasy shortstop in the National League. Crawford led all shortstops in RBI and was one behind Correa in the HR category, shattering preseason projections.

This was a big jump from 2014. He more than doubled his HR total from 2014 (10) and, as you may expect, saw his power (ISO) shoot up to .205 (.143 in '14). One of the big differences was Crawford's aggressiveness. He swung at pitches outside the strike zone 19.7% more often, a stat that sounds worrisome until you look into it further.

Here is Crawford's 2014 Heatmap.

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2014 (FanGraphs)

And here is 2015.

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Brandon Crawford Heatmap - 2015 (FanGraphs)

Crawford maintained the heat zones he inhabited before and expanded it to pitches below the middle of the plate. He still wasn't allowing pitches to beat him in on the hands while also displaying power to all fields. He had five opposite field home runs in 2015, in contrast to zero the year before.

Is Crawford a legitimate candidate for 20 HR again? Yes, I think he is. He battled through injuries in the second half and still managed to hit nine. But the homers are coming with an average below .250. Crawford managed to hit .256 due in large part to a fantastic May (.340 AVG). Take that month out and he hit .234. Let someone else overpay for Crawford in 2016 and try and find the next breakout shortstop (My vote: Addison Russell).

 

Breakout Players at C

Kyle Schwarber (CHC - C, OF)

2015 Statistics: .246/.355/.487, 52 R, 16 HR, 43 RBI, 3 SB

SCHWARBO! OK, got that out of my system. Nothing was more fun than celebrating a Schwarber homer run in 2015, and there numerous chances to do so. His 16 homers came in just 69 games, and in non-dynasty formats most owners got the power-hitting catcher for free. Finding a spot on the field became an issue when Miguel Montero returned and after watching Schwarber flail in left field in the NLCS, management must prioritize finding Schwarber a home. For us fantasy owners, all that matters is the C eligibility remains thanks to his 15 starts behind the plate.

With catcher being such a shallow spot in fantasy, Schwarber is going to be a hot fantasy commodity next year, and rightfully so. Ignore the fact his 16 HR was only 8th among catchers, unless you'll acknowledge he did so in 200 less AB. Do pay attention to the .241 ISO (1st) and the keen plate discipline (13.2 BB% - 1st). Schwarber is the only catcher with a legitimate shot to eclipse 30 HR. If the Cubs let him play everyday, then 40 homers are within reach. Add in the OBP bonus for 6x6 leagues, and we have a top 60 pick. You want to take Buster Posey first, go ahead, just don't be foolish and grab Carlos Santana over Schwarbo.

 

Stephen Vogt (OAK - C, 1B, OF)

2015 Statistics: .261/.341/.443, 58 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 0 SB

Like a fine wine, it pays to be patient. Except for us it's more about catchers (and closers). Vogt was seen as an OBP play in deep leagues on draft day and ended up as the No. 8 catcher in fantasy baseball. It was Vogt's first chance at an everyday role since entering baseball in 2012 and he made the most of it, setting career highs across the board.

One of the biggest improvements was the walk rate. His 11.0% BB rate was 2nd among catchers (Schwarber) and more in line with his minor league track record.  The 18 home runs shouldn't come as a complete shock; he did hit nine in 287 AB in 2014. It should be noted 11 came in the first two months.

The case against Vogt replicating his 2015 success lies in his monthly splits. He hit .217 with only four homers in an injury-plagued second half. It's tough to trust Vogt to duplicate his numbers, and in 5x5 formats where his OBP is null and void, he's outside the top-10 for 2016.

 

J.T. Realmuto (MIA - C)

2015 Statistics: .259/.290/.406, 49 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 8 SB

Quick Quiz: Who led all catchers in steals in 2015? It was our next breakout subject, Realmuto. In his first full season of action (only 11 games in 2014) he became one of the few bright spots on the Miami Marlins.

Realmuto really came alive to end the year - he hit .338 with three HR, eight RBI, and two SB in the month of September. I try not get overly excited about players finishing strong but in the case of young players it can be a sign of positive adjustments. The plate discipline is still very poor here. His .290 OBP and 4.9% walk rate were both third worst among catchers last season, severely hindering his potential in 6x6 formats.

The biggest plus for Realmuto is the power/speed combo as he heads to 2016. I believe J.T. Realmuto will be the only catcher to post a 10/10 season. He had 18 steals in 2014 for the AA-Club and he should eclipse double digits in HR again. In standard formats, Realmuto will likely go after the top-10 catchers are off the board. But NL-Only owners should prioritize the Marlins catcher and let opponents overpay for the likes of Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Roger McCreary

Lions Agree With Roger McCreary on One-Year Deal
Andre Cisco

Jets Agree With Andre Cisco on One-Year Deal
Geno Stone

Bills, Safety Geno Stone Agree to One-Year Deal
A.J. Brown

Futures of A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert With Eagles are "Interconnected"
Norman Powell

is Tagged as Questionable for Saturday
Victor Wembanyama

Questionable Saturday Vs. Hornets
Andrew Wiggins

to Miss Fifth Straight Game
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Ruled Out Versus New Orleans
Tobias Harris

is Ruled Out for Friday's Game
Ausar Thompson

Still Out Friday Against Memphis
Sebastian Joseph-Day

Signs Two-Year Deal With Steelers
Josh Hart

is Unavailable on Friday
Caleb Martin

Good to Go Versus Cavaliers
Jeremy Sochan

Won't Suit up on Friday
Laquon Treadwell

Colts Re-Sign Laquon Treadwell to a One-Year Deal
Naji Marshall

Cleared to Play Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns

is Ruled Out on Friday
Dallas Goedert

Eagles, Dallas Goedert Push Back Void Date a Second Time to Monday
P.J. Washington

Out Friday Against Cleveland
A.J. Brown

Eagles "Will Not Trade A.J. Brown at This Time"
Wan'Dale Robinson

Poised for Massive Target Volume with New Team in 2026
Daniel Gafford

Resting Friday Against Cavaliers
Tyler Warren

Profiles as the Clear Lead Target-Earner in Indianapolis
Francisco Lindor

Takes Full Batting Practice on Friday
Brock Purdy

Has a New No. 1 Wide Receiver to Work With in San Francisco
Jalen McMillan

Has Breakout Potential Heading into 2026
Cam Skattebo

Can Cam Skattebo Take on a Workhorse Role in 2026?
Brandon Woodruff

Still TBD for Opening Day
Tyler Conklin

Signs One-Year Deal With Lions
Rasheed Walker

Panthers Add Left Tackle Rasheed Walker on One-Year Deal
Simi Fehoko

Cardinals Re-Sign Receiver Simi Fehoko to One-Year Deal
Van Jefferson

Commanders Signing Van Jefferson on Friday
Dyami Brown

Commanders Bring Back Dyami Brown on One-Year Deal
A.J. Brown

Patriots, Rams Making "Strong Pushes" to Acquire A.J. Brown
Maxx Crosby

Plans to be "200 Percent Ready" by Training Camp
Atlanta Falcons

"No Starters Right Now" for Atlanta's Quarterback Situation
Trevor Rogers

to Start on Opening Day for Orioles
Kevin Vallejos

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Josh Emmett

In Dire Need Of Victory
Gillian Robertson

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 114
Amanda Lemos

Set For Co-Main Event
Oumar Sy

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Ion Cutelaba

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Bez Mbeng

Signs 10-Day Contract With Utah
Maxi Kleber

Likely Out Longer with Back Injury
John Konchar

to Miss Second Straight Game
Lauri Markkanen

Not Playing Friday Against Portland
Nathan MacKinnon

Racks Up Four Points in Victory Over Kraken
Ousmane Dieng

Cut Short by Illness Thursday
Alexis Lafrenière

Alexis Lafreniere Stays Hot in Winnipeg
Jonathan Isaac

Exits Early with Knee Issue
Semyon Varlamov

Won't Return This Season
Scotty Pippen Jr.

to Undergo Season-Ending Toe Surgery
Alexander Romanov

Could Return for Playoffs
Declan Carlile

Hurt on Thursday Night
Wyatt Kaiser

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Thursday
Erik Gudbranson

Could Be an Option Saturday
Auston Matthews

Exits Game With Injury
Jimmy Snuggerud

Scores Twice Versus Carolina
Michael Misa

Delivers Multi-Point Performance on Thursday
Keyonte George

to Be Re-Evaluated in Two Weeks
Blake Snell

Around Six Weeks From Being Fully Built Up
Bobby Brink

a Game-Time Decision for Meeting with Flyers
Evander Kane

Available Against Predators
Mark Stone

a Game-Time Call Thursday
Carter Verhaeghe

Anton Lundell Won't Play Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Returns to Action Thursday
Andrew Copp

to Sit Out Two Weeks
Dylan Larkin

Ruled Out for Two Weeks
Zack Wheeler

to Face Hitters in Live Batting Practice on Saturday
Gerrit Cole

Could Pitch in a Spring Game Next Week
Matthew Boyd

Named the Cubs' Opening Day Starter
Francisco Lindor

Remains on Schedule for Opening Day
Spencer Knight

Available Thursday
William Eklund

Questionable to Play Thursday
Alex Ovechkin

Records Power-Play Assist
Lane Hutson

Extends Road Point Streak to 10 Games
Bryce Miller

Shuts Down Bullpen Due to More Oblique Discomfort
Zac Gallen

Named Arizona's Opening Day Starter
Kyle Teel

Could Miss 4-6 Weeks With Hamstring Strain
Hideki Matsuyama

Brings Strong Course History to TPC Sawgrass
Josh Hader

to Start the Year on the Injured List
Adam Scott

in Strong Form Ahead of The Players
Kyle Teel

Exits Tuesday's Game With Hamstring Injury
Rickie Fowler

on Quite the Run Heading to TPC Sawgrass
Sepp Straka

Needs to Forget What Happened Sunday at Bay Hill
Jordan Spieth

an Enigma Heading to The Players Championship
Justin Rose

Trying to Pick Up the Pieces in Florida
Maverick McNealy

Bounces Back at Arnold Palmer Invitational
Brooks Koepka

Continues His Florida Swing With Some Momentum
Nicolai Hojgaard

in Strong Form Ahead of The Players
Robert MacIntyre

a Volatile Option at The Players
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looks to Return to Top Form at The Players
Sam Burns

a High-Risk, High-Reward Option at The Players
Keegan Bradley

Hard to Trust at The Players
Xander Schauffele

Rounding into Form Heading to Players Championship
Rory McIlroy

Set to Return at Players Championship to Defend Title
Jake Knapp

Set to Return at Players Championship
Viktor Hovland

Continues Strong Start to 2026 Season
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking for Bounce-Back at Players Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Will Need to Find Putter to Compete at Players Championship
Akshay Bhatia

Continues Improving Heading to Players Championship
Merrill Kelly

Set to Make Spring Training Debut on Friday
Francisco Lindor

"100 Percent Optimistic" he Can be Ready for Opening Day
Justin Thomas

Continues Competitive Return at The Players Championship
Corbin Carroll

Set to Play in Cactus League Game on Wednesday
Kyle Stowers

to Make Grapefruit League Debut on Saturday
Hunter Greene

to be Sidelined Through July
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo, Phillies Agree on Five-Year Extension
Corbin Carroll

Could Make Spring Debut This Week
Max Holloway

Drops Decision At UFC 326
Charles Oliveira

Becomes The New BMF Champion
Caio Borralho

Bounces Back
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Rob Font

Gets Dominated
Raul Rosas Jr.

Extends His Win Streak
Michael Johnson

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Drew Dober

Knocks Out Michael Johnson
Rafael Devers

Back in Cactus League Lineup on Monday
Ryan Blaney

Earns his Second Consecutive Phoenix Cup Series Win
Christopher Bell

Falls Short of Victory Despite Dominating at Phoenix
Kyle Larson

Earns Hard-Fought Finish of Third at Phoenix
Denny Hamlin

Quietly Gains Another Top-Five Finish at Phoenix
Joey Logano

Crashes out at Phoenix Despite Strong Run
Ryan Blaney

is Always A Top Favorite to Compete for the Win At Phoenix
Denny Hamlin

Is Denny Hamlin Worth Rostering for Phoenix?
Christopher Bell

is Likely to have Another Solid Phoenix Run
Chase Briscoe

has Plenty of Upside for DFS Lineups at Phoenix
Joey Logano

Could Dominate at Phoenix This Weekend
Chase Elliott

has Plenty of Upside for Sunday's Race at Phoenix
Chris Buescher

Is Chris Buescher Worth Rostering For Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Ross Chastain

Has Found Speed Again at Phoenix
Josh Berry

a Solid Sleeper at Phoenix
Brad Keselowski

Skips Qualifying After Practice Crash at Phoenix
Tyler Reddick

Spins in Practice at Phoenix
William Byron

Should Be a Contender at Phoenix
Kyle Larson

Is Always a Threat at Phoenix
NASCAR

Could Bubba Wallace Be Playable for Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Anthony Alfredo

Is A Favorable DFS Option In A Substitution Role At Phoenix
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF