RADIO
Scottie Scheffler was denied his fifth win of the season when Sam Burns buried a birdie putt from off the green in their first playoff hole. Sam managed to go low while the weather permitted and then sat back for a few hours and watched the leaderboard get blown away as each contender made their way through the terrifying back nine. Golf is such a cruel game at times.
Kevin Na was our best shot at a win, finishing T7 four shots off the lead. Conditions were brutal over the weekend and three of our top-20 bets managed to survive the onslaught that mother nature sent their way, sneaking through the week with a small profit overall.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Course Breakdown and Key Stats
Muirfield Village Golf Club, Par: 72, Yardage: 7,533, Greens: Bent, Designer: Jack Nicklaus
We are heading back to Muirfield Village GC in Dublin, Ohio for the second time since the re-design in 2020. With multiple holes lengthened it is playing very much like a major venue would, with an emphasis on all aspects of one's game. Driving the ball in the larger fairways provides a distinct advantage over approaches from very thick rough. The relatively small greens place a premium on play from 125-200 yards where 53% of approaches take place. Smaller greens and penal rough will require a deft touch around the greens when missing them 5% more than tour average.
The four Par 5s are the only holes on the course that play under par and provided the majority of the birdie opportunities for past winners. When playing the other 14 holes it is paramount that the birdies earned on the par 5s are complimented with an abundance of pars as scoring can get tough. Course history at Muirfield is relatively more predictive of success and will be our third "scoring" statistic we will be using.
In summary, we are looking for players to excel in most of the below criteria:
- Model Rank
- SG: Off The Tee
- SG: Approach / L24
- SG: Around The Green
- Par 5 Scoring
- Bogey Avoidance
- Course History
Outrights
After another week of never really being in the hunt on Sunday, we have a few of our favorite golfers in the field again and have high expectations for all of them.
Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13 of our $100 to net $110 or more.
Cameron Smith ($5.43 @ +2200 on DK)
Over the last 24 rounds, there is no doubt that Cameron Smith is currently the best approach player on the planet, gaining +1.94 strokes per round, +0.87 more than Max Homa and Collin Morikawa who are in a distant second. Smith also has one of the best short games in the business, ranking as the fifth-best putter on Bent grass and 19th around the greens. Cam leads the field in Par 5 scoring and is eighth in bogey avoidance, both a combination of his incredible iron play and terrific touch around the greens.
Only 14 golfers in this field are currently driving the ball worse than Smith, unfortunately. Under pressure he is capable of producing a ball flight that looks like a wounded duck, snap-hooking viciously into the left rough. Not only do we have to plug our nose for his driving atrocities, but Smith has not finished better than T65 in his six starts at the Memorial. This is a major concern BUT...in four of those six starts, he gained off the tee and jeopardized his chances with substandard golf in all other categories, which we hope he can remedy as World No. 3.
At 22-1 it would seem negligent to not bet on the best approach player in the world, who also happens to have the second-best short game in the field.
- Model Rank: 4
- SG: Off The Tee: 83
- SG: Approach / L24: 12 / 1
- SG: Around The Green: 19
- Par 5 Scoring: 1
- Bogey Avoidance: 8
- Course History: MC, T68, MC, MC, T65
Cameron Young ($3.04 @ +4000)
Although they share the same first name, Cameron Young has a set of driving statistics that Smith would most likely shave his mullet off for. This golfer writeup is presented to you by the maniac, as the model is not adjusting rapidly enough to Young's last three finishes of T3, T2, and T3. He has drastic distance but remains reasonably accurate, combing to rank second to John Rahm in strokes gained off the tee. His last 12 rounds have produced the nineth-best results on approach. Since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March, Young has not lost strokes around the green (4th SG: ARG L24), an area of his game that let him down earlier in his rookie season.
After wowing the world with another runner-up finish at The Genesis Invitational in February, gaining six strokes with his putter, he had not gained more than +0.64 strokes putting in any event until the PGA two weeks ago. If he can replicate that precision with the putter, the rest of his game is absolutely capable of pulling off any shot necessary to win his first PGA Tour event.
- Model Rank: 30
- SG: Off The Tee: 2
- SG: Approach / L24: 54/ 35
- SG: Around The Green: 72
- Par 5 Scoring: 67
- Bogey Avoidance: 68
Davis Riley ($2.04 @ +6000)
Davis Riley is the second rookie to make an appearance on the card and boasts a similar recent run of T4, T13, T9 and T5 in his last four starts. Riley has now gained on approach in three consecutive events, showing consistency that was missing earlier in the season. He ranks 61st in baseline approach but has surged to 2nd in that department over the last 12 rounds. His putting and driver have also proven to be useful assets recently, ranking in the top quarter of the field over the last 24 rounds.
If Riley continues to improve on his current form, a win in the next few events seems inevitable. Ideally we would like to see a larger sample size of this level of golf, but at 60-1 it is worth trying to capture some Mississippi-lightning in a bottle.
- Model Rank: 75
- SG APP L24: 33 / (L12: 2)
- Proximity 100-200: 100
- Good Drives Gained: 95
- SG Putting on Bent L50: 26
- Bogey avoidance: 83
Seamus Power ($2.04 @ +6000)
Seamus Power gained on approach in all four of his PGA Championship rounds on route to his maiden top-10 in only his second major. Seamus ranks 16th off the tee in his last two-dozen rounds, getting the job done with both distance and accuracy. Power's game as a whole is greater than the sum of its parts, with none of his four major baseline stats better than his total strokes gained. His game is extremely well rounded and that is an exciting prospect heading to a course that demands precision across the board.
Power's best ranking is his second-ranked bogey avoidance which is only bested by Jon Rahm. This comes as no surprise as his game is designed to get the ball in the hole by leaning on any skillset necessary. Seamus manages to avoid bogeys like a seasoned matador but he is also very capable of capitalizing on the Par 5s, ranking 12th in that criteria. The Irishman makes his first appearance in Dublin, Ohio, and although he has no course history here, he just finished ninth in his second major, leaving little doubt that he is capable of shaking Jack's hand on Sunday afternoon for his second tour win.
- Model Rank: 11
- SG: Off The Tee: 52
- SG: Approach / L24: 43 / 77
- SG: Around The Green: 12
- Par 5 Scoring: 12
- Bogey Avoidance: 2
Keegan Bradley ($1.85 @ +6600)
Keegan Bradley managed to play 54 holes of PGA Championship golf while only making a total of three birdies. He did eventually roll in a few more birdie putts on Sunday but it was a frustrating performance from our guy. Nevertheless, we are back on him this week as we are hoping to capitalize on a Bradley who can now seemingly get hot with the flat stick. Bradley's baseline putting rank is 111th but checks in at 21st over the last 24 rounds. His putting has been a toxic anchor to any pursuit of success in the past, but if that has now transformed into an additional mast on the pirate ship that is Keegan Bradley, we are going places in a hurry.
His tee-to-green game is extremely solid, ranking inside the top 24 off the tee, on approach, and around the greens. He has typically gained ball striking around Muirfield in the past but his putter and short game have let him down. His recent history here is nothing to write home about with a T23 being the only meaningful result in his last five appearances. However, in 2015 and 2016 he gained with the flat stick and notched up back-to-back T8s. Gaining on the greens is now more probable than it has been for quite some time and if Bradley can have a patented ball striking week we should be in for an exciting weekend.
- Model Rank: 14
- SG: Off The Tee: 17
- SG: Approach / L24: 7 / 21
- SG: Around The Green: 24
- Par 5 Scoring: 30
- Bogey Avoidance: 34
- Course History: MC, T68, MC, T23, MC, T8, T8
First-Round Leaders
Apparently we needed to play possum for 11 weeks in order to get on the board with this bet. Not only did we get on the board, but two of our first round leaders landed up cashing...along with SIX other first round leaders resulting in an eight-way split. Because we had two tickets it was technically a four-way split for us, which is unfortunate but much better than an eight way.
This week we are rolling with all five of our outrights for first round leader tickets. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting a total of $12.75 on five guys to net $110 or more.
Cameron Smith ($3.65 @ +3300)
The driver can get nervy under pressure, but on Thursdays we can expect a little more consistency off the tee. Did we mention he is the best iron player in the field. Oh, he is also one of the best putters in the field too. Most importantly, he leads the field in birdie or better percentage. Make it rain, Cam!
Cameron Young ($3.00 @ +4000)
Prolific power off the tee, impeccable irons, arousing around the green game, and a flashy flat stick are all the ingredients needed to find himself at the top of the leaderboard on Thursday.
Davis Riley ($2.42 @ +5000)
His last 12 rounds on approach are second in the field and the Mississippi magician can go very low on any given day. Why not this Thursday?
Seamus Power ($1.85 @ +6600)
If Seamus has found his approach game, we know he is capable of rattling off a pair of eight-under rounds like he did at Pebble Beach earlier in the year.
Keegan Bradley ($1.84 @ +6600)
We don't care what dance moves and club twirls you need to do before your shot, just go out there and stripe it like we know you can. While you are at it, feel free to roll in as many putts as your heart desires, Keegan.
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Placings
We have $72.84 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $67.84 on one T10 and four T20s. Odds range from +150 to +200 so two or three of the five guys we bet on need to cash to make a profit, depending on their respective odds.
BetMGM will be our book of choice for most of these bets as their odds are the best and they pay ties in full. Our threshold to ditch BetMGM's ties paid in full for other books is 30 points (BetMGM +110 < DK +150, BetMGM +110 > DK +130)
Jon Rahm (T10: $13.57 @ +150 on FD, +100 on BetMGM)
In his last two starts at Muirfield, Jon Rahm has average +5.5 strokes gained on the field...per round!!! This golf course suits his hyper-accurate long irons and booming drives very nicely. His short game also comes alive around these green complexes. It's Rahm's happy place and it will not be surprising to see him excel here once again.
- Model Rank: 1
- SG: Off The Tee: 1
- SG: Approach / L24: 8 / 65
- SG: Around The Green:63
- Par 5 Scoring: 2
- Bogey Avoidance: 1
- Course History: Sunday WD (6 shot lead), WIN, MC
Collin Morikawa (T20: $13.57 @ -110 on BetMGM, -110 on FD)
Collin Morikawa has gained with his putter once in the last three months. However, he has gained over five strokes on the greens in two of his three starts here. He has also won at Muirfield playing in the 2020 Workday Charity Open and lost to Patrick Cantlay in a playoff in 2021. If he can continue his exceptional iron play and get the putter cooking again, we are okay laying 10 points of juice to see Collin place inside the top-20.
- Model Rank: 2
- SG: Off The Tee: 19
- SG: Approach / L24: 1 / 3
- SG: Around The Green:68
- Par 5 Scoring: 10
- Bogey Avoidance: 15
- Course History: 2nd, T48
Hideki Matsuyama (T20: $13.57 @ +125 on BetMGM, +110 on FD)
Hideki is the tee-to-green machine that is capable of ball striking this course to death. His last pair of starts here are a little concerning but he has two top-20s in the two starts prior. If he can take advantage of the Par 5s, hitting those "Deki Woods" to three feet, he should find himself mixing it up in the Top-20 on Sunday.
- Model Rank: 7
- SG: Off The Tee: 35
- SG: Approach / L24: 3 / 9
- SG: Around The Green: 25
- Par 5 Scoring: 5
- Bogey Avoidance: 19
- Course History: T62, MC, 6, T13
Daniel Berger (T20: $8.75 @ +200 on BetMGM, +190 on FD)
Daniel Berger missed the cut here two years ago, courtesy of his short game that has improved immensely since 2020. At a ball strikers paradise, where accurate drives and well-positioned approach shots pay dividends, Berger should be watering at the mouth to redeem himself around Muirfield. The model suggested we play Berger for a T20 last week, but after his messy PGA Championship we were not certain he was healthy. After grinding back to finish T23 last week (dodged that bullet), he appears back in the groove, at least from a ball striking front.
- Model Rank: 12
- SG: Off The Tee: 27
- SG: Approach / L24: 6 / 53
- SG: Around The Green: 6
- Par 5 Scoring: 34
- Bogey Avoidance: 10
- Course History: MC
Seamus Power (T20: $13.57 @ +200 on BetMGM, +220 on FD)
Seamus, go have yourself a week!
The Farewell Fiver
Patrick Reed (T10: $5 @ +500 on DK)
Patrick Reed has ditched his PXG driver and has remarkably started playing much better golf all of a sudden. He has never missed a cut here and has finished fifth and T10 in his last two starts. After his T7 at the Charles Schwab last week, Reed has now gained on approach in back-to-back events for the first time this season. He may have found something in his game and gets to show it off at a course that has been very friendly to him in the past.
PGA Championship Recap:
- Outright: -$13
- FRL: $19.64
- Placings: $4.38
- Farewell Fiver(s): $-5
- Total: $6.02
- Season Total: $21.51
We managed to squeeze out $6.02 in profit last week thanks to our FRLs and Sungjae Im (+150), Kevin Na (+200), and Chris Kirk (+200) who all finished inside the top-20. We are limiting the damage every week in anticipation of another big week soon!
As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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