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Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/14/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jo Adell, Kyle Schwarber, and Jorge Polanco.
Saturday continues a busy weekend of baseball with all 30 teams on the scoreboard. After three early afternoon games, the bulk of the schedule comes from the eight games starting around 4:00 p.m. ET. The schedule concludes with four night games under the lights, including rivalry games from each coast. Several strong spots stand out for home run props based on hitter matchups, environments, and the weather. As the hotter days of summer arrive, fly balls tend to carry further, resulting in increased home runs. This daily article from our team at RotoBaller has been crushing it all season, and let's keep the good mojo going.
I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. Since home run props are usually very longshot bets by nature, they should only be a portion of your overall betting strategy. One way I like to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but the round robin format allows for an even bigger payout if more than one home run hits.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, June 14, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/14/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, June 14:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs
- Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
- Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
- Jorge Polanco, Seattle Mariners
Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Cubs and Pirates meet in one of the early afternoon games at Wrigley Field. Crow-Armstrong comes at pretty favorable odds in this matchup, so I'm going back to the well on PCA, who has delivered for me in the past in several home run props this season.
Crow-Armstrong has 18 homers on the season and hit one of the most viral homers of the season earlier this week when he crushed a pitch up and out of the zone into the right field bleachers.
At 3.90 feet, Pete Crow-Armstrong matches the 9th-highest pitch hit for a home run this season.
PCA also has the two LOWEST - 0.86 ft and 1.08 ft! https://t.co/LxJIZ6hEJn
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) June 13, 2025
Not only was it a "bad pitch" to hit, it was a "bad matchup" lefty on lefty against Andrew Heaney. PCA didn't seem to be bothered by either. On the season, he's hitting .290 at home with six of his 18 homers, while 14 of his homers have come against right-handed pitchers, like Saturday's matchup against Mike Burrows.
Burrows has made four starts for the Pirates this year and given up four home runs. He has a 5.00 ERA and 5.41 FIP while giving up a 44% hard-hit rate and 9.3% barrel rate. He has given up two of those homers to lefties like PCA.
Crow-Armstrong has a 42.4% hard-hit rate and 14.1% barrel rate on the year and has caught five barrels with a 50% hard-hit rate over his last eight games. Three of those hits have left the yard, and I love him at these odds to go deep again on Saturday.
Jo Adell OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+700 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Adell has been scorching hot lately, and throughout his career, he's been very streaky. While the former top prospect hasn't been able to sustain it long enough to break through and turn into a fantasy regular, he has been impressive enough over his last several games to be worth taking a shot on at these long odds on Saturday.
In his last 12 games, Adell has seven home runs. He's hitting .300 over that span and has tacked on a couple of stolen bases, but for this prop, we're really just focused on those homers. They have not been flukey either since Adell has seven barrels for a 25% barrel rate over that span and a 50% hard-hit rate. He has an average exit velocity of 92.2 miles per hour in those 12 games as well.
Adell is a righty, but he has smashed 11 of his 13 homers this season against right-handed pitchers with a .355 wOBA in the split. He did not homer in Friday's rain-delayed opener in Baltimore, but he did go 2-for-4 with a stolen base.
On Saturday, Adell and the Angels face Tomoyuki Sugano in the second game of their series at homer-friendly Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Sugano is 5-4 in 13 starts with the O's this season and has given up 12 home runs. Seven of those 12 homers have come at home, where Sugano has a 5.11 FIP. He has given up five homers and eight barrels in his last five starts with a 36.0% hard-hit rate against.
Adell has been so locked in lately that getting him in this spot at +700 is exceptional value.
🗓️ JO IN JUNE 🗓️
In 10 June games, Jo Adell has 6 HR and 10 RBI with a 1.186 OPS. The six homers are tied for the MLB lead. pic.twitter.com/wz0RztMWN3
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) June 11, 2025
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Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+270 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Schwarber has homered in back-to-back games to get to 22 Shwar-bombs on the season. Even though his odds are the shortest of the players in my picks, they're still longer than I would have expected based on his power production on the year, his strong recent form, and his great home matchup against the Blue Jays.
On Friday, he hit a three-run blast to center off Kevin Gausman while sporting the Phillies' City Connect threads:
Kyle Schwarber sends a three-run homer out in a hurry! pic.twitter.com/J8W3tThFsc
— MLB (@MLB) June 13, 2025
Schwarber has hit exactly half of his homers at home and exactly half against right-handed pitching after that long ball, making him an equal opportunity masher on all sides of the splits. He is only hitting .143 over his last six games, but all three of his hits have been home runs.
Seven of his 22 long balls have come in his last 23 games, and over that span, he has an impressive 57.4% hard-hit rate and 21.3% barrel rate. He has been one of the leaders in many contact quality stats this season, and continues to crush just about everything he sees.
On Saturday, he gets a juicy matchup against Bowden Francis of the Blue Jays. Francis has given up 19 home runs this season in his 13 starts, spanning 60 1/3 innings. Opponents have a 50.8% hard-hit rate and 11.9% barrel rate against the young righty, who starts the day with a 6.90 FIP.
Left-handed hitters like Schwarber have hit 14 of the 19 homers off Francis this season, and they have a .425 wOBA so far this season. It should set up perfectly for Schwarber to go yard once again on Saturday if Francis gives him anything to hit. The Phillies don't have quite the depth that we're used to from them, but Schwarber is making up for the absence of Bryce Harper (wrist) and carrying the offense while climbing the home run leaderboard.
Jorge Polanco OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
From the two late games, Polanco is my top home run prop, as he and the Mariners take on the Guardians in the second game of their series in Seattle. While wearing the Mariners' beautiful city connect unis, Polanco homered on Friday night, giving him 11 dingers on the season.
Jorge Polanco sends it to the bullpen 🤩
🌟 https://t.co/Q16mvWt8m4 🌟 pic.twitter.com/UWueDVcLgi
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) June 14, 2025
Of his 11 home runs, nine have come at home at T-Mobile Park, where he is hitting .281 with a .386 wOBA and 163 wRC+ this season. The switch-hitting second baseman has hit 10 of his 11 homers when facing a righty as a left-handed batter, with a .342 wOBA in that split.
He should be on the favorable side of both of those splits against Tanner Bibee on Saturday night. Bibbe has given up 14 homers in 13 starts this season, with a 39.7% hard-hit rate against him. All his splits also lean in Polanco's favor since lefties have hit eight of the 14 homers off him, and 11 have come in his 39 2/3 road innings. Bibee hasn't been awful overall, but he has struggled with giving up home runs, especially when pitching on the road.
Polanco comes into the matchup riding an eight-game hitting streak. During that run, he is 11-for-34 (.324) with nine hard-hit events. On the season, he has a decent 45.7% hard-hit rate and a slightly above-average average exit velocity of 90.9 miles per hour. He's not primarily a slugger but has made enough solid contact lately to be worth a shot in this matchup Saturday night.
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