X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 15 - Ballpark Factors

In Part 15 of his fantasy baseball strategy series to make sabermetrics accessible to fantasy owners, Rick Lucks breaks down how to use ballpark factors for fantasy baseball purposes.

If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line.

Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule.

Today, we continue our journey through baseball sabermetrics with a look at how each team's home stadium can play a factor in the fantasy baseball world.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How to Interpret Ballpark Factors

Ballpark factors are generally set to a base of 100 (or 1.000, which doesn't actually change anything), meaning that a park factor of 100 plays perfectly neutral. Factors greater than 100 signify that a given park allows more of that outcome, while numbers below 100 represent less of those outcomes.

There are multiple sources of ballpark factors, including FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, and Statcorner. Each calculates their numbers a little bit differently, but they all use the base-100 scale listed above. There is no "correct" factor to use, as each system has its own merits. Just make sure you stick to a single source for any analysis to control for the variance.

The source you choose also dictates how much each point above or below 100 is "worth." A player only plays 50% of his games at home, with the rest of his schedule comprised of road games. Some sources such as Fangraphs halve all of their factors to accommodate this, making each point above or below 100 represent a one percent increase or decrease over a full season of stats. Other sources leave that job to you, making every point worth two percentage points in a player's final line.

If that's too confusing, it's fine to forget it. The only thing you need to know is that a park factor of 110 is considerably higher than a 105 mark.

When most fantasy owners think of ballpark factors, they think of homers. A park allowing plenty of bombs is viewed as a hitter's park, while parks allowing fewer dingers are more pitcher-friendly. Let's consider Yankee Stadium as an example.

Yankee Stadium is known as a home run haven for good reason. In 2018, the stadium had a Baseball Prospectus HR factor of 104 for right-handed batters and 114 for left-handed swingers. This makes intuitive sense, as the short porch in right field helps left-handed hitters more than right-handed hitters, creating a meaningful platoon split in how the park plays. Of course, a right-handed hitter with an opposite field power stroke could benefit like a lefty, and a HR factor of 104 is nothing to sneeze at. The point is that all ballpark factors should be considered with nuance.

While most fantasy owners are familiar with certain ballparks allowing more or less homers than others, BABIP is an under-appreciated component of ballpark factors. Altitude, infield conditions, foul territory, batter's eye, and the size of the stadium can all influence how a ballpark plays beyond just home runs.

 

Coors Canaveral

For example, the Colorado Rockies managed a league-leading .334 BABIP at home last season against a league-worst road BABIP of .274. Likewise, they posted a .351 mark at home versus a .311 mark on the road in 2017, .348 mark at home vs. .302 on the road in 2016, .346 against .276 in 2015, and similar differences in every other season at Coors Field. Players tend to perform a little better at home, but Colorado's splits seem indicative of more than that.

Indeed, Coors Field promoted more singles (105 for RHB, 104 for LHB per Baseball Prospectus), doubles (124, 115), triples (153, 135), and homers (112, 111) than the average park in 2018. The sample size of triples is usually too small to mean anything, but Coors Field has many quirks to help explain its extreme offensive environment.

It's a gigantic ballpark, offering plenty of real estate for balls to find grass. Pitchers claim that breaking balls behave differently due to the elevation of the Mile High City, removing some of their weapons. Fatigue may set in faster for the same reason. The introduction of the humidor has decreased the ballpark's HR rates compared to the complete bandbox it was at the height of the Steroid Era, but it still consistently posts the highest BABIPs in baseball. For this reason, fantasy owners should generally be skeptical of Colorado hurlers.

Colorado is the most extreme example, but every stadium has some quirk that makes it unique. Fenway's Green Monster, the Trop's artificial surface, and the miles of foul territory in Oakland all affect a player's fantasy stats.

That said, sometimes ballpark factors can lie. Eighty-one games is a relatively small sample size, so a park could play dramatically differently in a given season than it has in the past or should be expected to moving forward. FanGraphs offers a five-year average park factor for overall scoring environment that eliminates much of this noise, though unfortunately they haven't been updated with 2018 data yet at time of writing.

Using 2017 data, Coors Field was well above other offensive parks with a five-year average factor of 116. Second-place Arizona and Texas are tied with 105, though the introduction of a humidor in the desert probably takes Arizona out of this conversation. Petco Park and Citi Field (95) are tied for most pitcher-friendly stadium. Obviously, you should pay more attention to the current year's data if there is a reason to believe the park changed.

Finally, it's worth noting that any ballpark factor worth looking at has a procedure in place to avoid being influenced by the home team's standout performers. For example, we have previously seen that Lorenzo Cain of the Milwaukee Brewers is an outstanding defensive outfielder. This fact does not slant Milwaukee's ballpark toward pitchers because the performance of visiting teams in Milwaukee is compared to their performance against Milwaukee, not the league at large. Thus, a player like Cain is not a variable.

 

Conclusion

Ballpark factors quantify how much influence a player's environment has on his final totals. A 100 factor is league average, with numbers above or below that indicative of more or less of whatever it is a factor for. Most fantasy owners think of homers when considering park factors, but singles, line drives, and even strikeouts have park factors as well. Platoon splits can also dictate where a given player is most likely to succeed.

The final article in this series will address minor league numbers and how you can use them to determine if that hot-new callup will play more like Rhys Hoskins or Byron Buxton.

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Chase Elliott

an Easy DFS Pick at Chicago Street Course
Chris Buescher

Should Be Strong at Chicago Street Course
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Solid DFS Target After Qualifying 37th at Chicago
Michael McDowell

Has Solid Saturday at Chicago Street Course
Will Brown

an Interesting Fantasy Option at Chicago Street Course
Justin Haley

Has Strong Record at Chicago Street Course
Todd Gilliland

Could Surprise at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF