First Base Draft Sleepers for 2020

First base has historically been a deep position in fantasy baseball. However, in recent years, we've seen it become a lot more top-heavy with only five to seven players giving us a warm and fuzzy feeling if we're able to draft them as our starting first baseman. That's why it's even more important this year […]

Failure to Launch? Decreasing Launch Angles

Earlier this week, I looked at the biggest launch angle changes in hopes of uncovering some players who made clear adjustments last season that could lead to sustained growth in 2020. However, for every story of positive growth and potential value, there are cases that cause some doubt or worry. Below is the bottom 15 […]

Brett Gardner (OF, NYY) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~250 CURRENT ADP: ~304 overall ANALYSIS: Brett Gardner is trying to re-invent himself as his speed begins to dry up. He hit only 11 home runs in the entire first half of 2019, but it's clear that he made a conscious launch angle adjustment in the middle of the summer. On July […]

September Power Surges That Might Be For Real

As we all sit and overanalyze spring training at-bats and pitch mixes, it's important to remember that the small sample sizes of a few half-games against essentially AAAA talent can often be misleading. Instead, I find it's far more telling to use late-season changes from the year before to try to identify who has made […]

Eric Samulski's 10 Bold Predictions for 2020

I've read these columns for years, so it's kind of surreal to be putting out my own. As somebody who constantly over-analyzes, I tend to be less risky in my fantasy decisions because a part of my brain always walks me back from the ledge. With that in mind, I tried to mix up the […]

Joining the Launch Angle Revolution: Potential Power Risers

Launch angle has become perhaps the trendiest stat in all of fantasy baseball. If you turn on any podcast, you hear analysts mentioning that "if a player could only increase his launch angle, he could be a stud" (cough - Yandy Diaz - cough). Often, I think this analysis is oversimplified. Launch angle is obviously […]

Jason Castro (C, LAA) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~320-335 CURRENT ADP: ~376 overall ANALYSIS: Jason Castro's 2019 was lost in the shuffle because his teammate, Mitch Garver also broke out over more at-bats. However, Castro is worth mentioning, especially at a shallow position. He slashed .232/.332/.435 with 13 HR, 30 RBI, and 39 R in only 237 at-bats. Castro only […]

Evaluating OAA for Pitchers Changing Teams (AL and NL-Only)

Earlier this preseason, I looked deeper into Statcast’s new Outs Above Average (OAA) leaderboard, which identifies the best defensive infielders in the league. I used 2019 OAA to look at how a pitcher's new defense will affect his value in the 2020 season. The first article evaluated pitchers drafted inside the top 300 picks, so this […]

Domingo Santana (OF, CLE) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target ~270s CURRENT ADP: ~300 overall ANALYSIS: Domingo Santana will likely be the starting LF for the Cleveland Indians and locked into regular at-bats in the middle of a solid lineup. He should really be a DH given his defensive shortcomings, but Franmil Reyes is bad at fielding too, so Santana should have a pretty […]

Evaluating OAA for Pitchers Changing Teams (12-Team Leagues)

Last week, I looked at Statcast’s new Outs Above Average (OAA) leaderboard, which they’ve used to identify the best defensive infielders in the league. My initial exploration of the metric was designed to identify pitchers who might have been lucky or unlucky last year as a way of mining for bounceback value or avoiding potential […]

Starlin Castro (2B, WAS) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target ~260s CURRENT ADP: ~286 overall ANALYSIS: Oftentimes we hear the word "sleeper" in fantasy sports and think of a younger player who is primed to catch most owners off-guard with surprising success. In reality, we should simply be thinking about players who are being overlooked based on their role and opportunity. Basically, […]

Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers

BALLER MOVE: Target ~210 CURRENT ADP: ~230 overall ANALYSIS: Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson was terrific throughout the first half of 2019, but then a July 23 heel injury sunk it all. He would miss a month, only to return with a 32% strikeout rate compared to 20.4% prior to the injury. He hit 17 […]

Rougned Odor (2B, TX) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 180 CURRENT ADP: ~218 overall ANALYSIS: Rougned Odor just turned 26 a few weeks ago, which seems shocking since he broke into the Majors in 2014. Yes, he's struggled with strikeouts and has hit just above .200 in two of the last three years, but people continue to talk about […]

Mock Draft Review: Best Late-Round Targets

Last week, some members of the RotoBaller staff completed a 12-team mock draft for standard 5x5 format. After the draft, we each broke down our strategy and some of our favorite picks, which can be found here. However, I want to take a closer look at one portion of the draft in particular. Since we know that […]

2019 Barrel Breakouts: Who's For Real and Who's Next?

As pitchers and catchers get even closer to reporting and most fantasy leagues prepare for their drafts, everybody is looking for a leg up on the competition - a way to get in on a guy before everybody else does. In this article, we're going to look for a way to identify hitters who improved […]

Pitchers Most Impacted By Defense: OAA Risers

Early in January, Statcast released a full fielding leaderboard of their Outs Above Average (OAA) metric, which had previously been limited to outfielders only. The metric takes into account fielder positioning, reaction time, throw difficulty, and batter speed in order to calculate how likely a play is to become an out. The more unlucky, the […]

Pitchers Most Impacted By Defense: OAA Fallers

Early in January, Statcast released a full fielding leaderboard of their Outs Above Average (OAA) metric, which had previously been limited to outfielders only. The metric takes into account fielder positioning, reaction time, throw difficulty, and batter speed in order to calculate how likely a play is to become an out. The more unlikely, the […]

Fall Flashes: Arizona Fall League Top Prospect Risers

Every year, some of the best minor league prospects head to Arizona to take part in the Arizona Fall League. It features six teams of prospects, sent by their organizations to get extra game reps against top-flight competition, sometimes including players at higher levels in the minor league system. Given the high level of competition, […]

Eric Samulski's Prospects Live Bestball 50 Draft Breakdown

This offseason, Prospects Live announced a new draft format that they were hoping would bring together the dynasty crowd with more redraft-heavy players. The format was simple and also completely complicated. Each league would be a five-year Best Ball Dynasty featuring 30 teams where each owner would draft a roster of 50 players, and the […]

Derrick Henry To See Heavy Workload Again

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry figures to be the focal point of the offense again in the AFC Championship game against the Chiefs. He saw over 30 carries in each of the first two rounds of the playoffs and now faces a Chiefs Defense that he ran for 188 yards against in Week 10. […]

Ryan Tannehill Has Slate-Winning Upside

Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has in an underrated match-up on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Titans will certainly look to ride Derrick Henry to another playoff win, but he also figures to be the focus of the Chiefs Defense. If the Chiefs are able to contain Henry, then the Titans will have […]

Using xwOBA to Identify Breakout Pitchers

Heading into a new baseball season, fantasy owners are looking for any leg up on our competition. We turn over stones looking for any stat or training report that might suggest a breakout that few others can see coming. I’m not here to promise some groundbreaking stat, but I do believe that Expected Weighted On-base Average […]

Jonnu Smith Not A Fantasy Option On Saturday

Tennessee Titans tight end Jonnu Smith will remain off the fantasy radar against a Ravens Defense that has ranked first in fantasy points allowed to tight ends since Week 10. Smith's success this season has been touchdown-dependent, only topping 70 yards once and hauling in more than five passes twice. More problematically, he saw two […]

A.J. Brown Will Be Fallback Option on Saturday

Tennessee Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown has enjoyed a breakout rookie season, but will likely be a secondary option on Saturday after the Titans only threw 15 passes in last week's win over the Patriots. In order for Brown to have fantasy value, the Titans will need to be trailing by enough to abandon the […]

Dion Lewis Unlikely To Be a Factor

Tennessee Titans running back Dion Lewis is nursing a sore shoulder, but will also have a much tougher task than his teammate Derrick Henry when they face the Ravens on Saturday. It may be possible to assume that the Ravens will build a lead, which will cause the Titans to play Lewis and their pass-first offense over […]

Derrick Henry Has Path To Success Versus Ravens

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry faces a stiff test on Saturday against a Ravens Defense that ranks first in the NFL in fantasy points against since Week 10. However, much of the Ravens' success comes from playing with a lead and limiting running back production through the air. The Ravens give up the fewest […]

Ryan Tannehill Likely To Take Back Seat Again

Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is likely to take a back seat in the team's game plan for their Divisional showdown against the Baltimore Ravens. After only throwing 15 passes in last week's win over the Patriots, Tannehill will now face a Ravens secondary that has given up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks since […]

2019 Season in Review: Aristides Aquino

On August 1, 2019, Aristides Aquino was called up by the Cincinnati Reds. Shortly thereafter, bedlam broke out. He hit 11 home runs in his first 63 at-bats, drove in 22 runs, and caused the internet to flood with The Punisher GIFs and newly made t-shirts. When the month of August came to a close, […]

Jacob Hollister In Tough Matchup On Sunday

Seattle Seahawks tight end Jacob Hollister will face a stiffer-than-expected test on Sunday against an Eagles Defense that's fifth in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends on the season. When a tight end has seen seven or more targets against the Eagles, only one of them has failed to score double-digit points. […]

Travis Homer Could Have Sneaky Value

Seattle Seahawks running back Travis Homer could have sneaky value on Sunday versus a dominant Eagles run defense. Homer will share a backfield with newly-signed Marshawn Lynch, who figures to be used between the tackles while Homer operates as a pass-catching back. The rookie from Miami has pulled in 11 receptions over the last two […]