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Click here to read about the DFS showdown slate for Chiefs vs. Bills.
Championship weekend has arrived and this article is focusing on the NFC Championship matchup that features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers. These two teams faced off against one another back in Week 6 of the regular season and the Bucs had their way with the Packers as they went on to win 38-10. This game features an over/under of 51.5 with the Packers being favored by 4 points.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for NFC Championship Slate on January 24rd. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with myself and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like!
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DFS Quarterbacks
This is a high-profile quarterback matchup and the quarterback play will be the key to this game. Both Rodgers and Brady look to be at the top of their games heading into this NFC Championship game and both should be considered when constructing your rosters. For the Bucs, Brady has been very decisive and efficient as he has thrown 12 touchdown passes over his last four games while only throwing one interception during that four-game span. In addition to that great touchdown to interception ratio in his last four games, he has also thrown for 300+ yards in three of those games. The Packer's defense limited opposing offenses to throw for 231.2 yards per game throughout the season which was the sixth-best in the league. In Week 6, Brady completed 63% of his passes and only threw for 166 passing yards while tossing two touchdowns against Green Bay. While it wasn't a ceiling type of performance, the Bucs got up early and the offense wasn't asked to do too much which hampered the upside of the offense as a whole. This game should be much more competitive which means we could see a much better fantasy game from Brady and this Bucs offense.
On the other side of this game stands Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is having an MVP type of season as he has thrown for 4,500 passing yards, 50 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions. He has been almost flawless this season and looked sharp as can be against the Rams in the divisional round of the playoffs. Against LA, he threw for 296 yards and two passing touchdowns while also running one in as well. Oddly enough, Rodgers had his worst game of the season against the Bucs in Week 6 as he completed 45% of his passes for 160 yards and two interceptions. The Bucs defense is allowing opponents to throw for 267.1 passing yards per game which ranks 22nd in the league and they do not seem to be quite the same defense that Green Bay faced early on in the season. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, it will be hard to imagine Rodgers not balling out like we have been used to this season.
Analysis: Both quarterbacks are playing at an extremely high level and with this possibly turning into a passing type of game, both are in play in both formats. Squeezing them into the same lineup could be tough to do so it might be best to roll with one quarterback in tournament lines and using two of their receivers and then running it back with the other team's best receiver.
DFS Running Backs
Both defenses are very solid against the run so rostering running backs in this game could be a tad risky. Aaron Jones is coming off of a solid game against a good Rams Defense as he had 14 rushing attempts for 99 yards and a rushing touchdown in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs. Jones has been a very good back for the Packers as he had over 1,200 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the season but really struggled against the Bucs as he had 10 carries for 15 total yards but was able to find the end zone for a rushing touchdown. Tampa has the best rushing defense in the league as they allowed only 82.2 yards per game so it could be a game where Jones can't get anything going on the ground and all of his fantasy production could come through the passing game. Backing up Jones is Jamaal Williams and Williams saw a healthy dose of rushing attempts against LA as he had 12 rushes for 65 yards. He is priced down on both sites and would be a nice tournament target since he can be used in the passing game.
The Bucs look to have both Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette good to go for this Sunday's game against Green Bay. Jones has been dealing with an injury down the stretch which allowed Fournette to slide into the top running back role on the depth chart. Fournette led the team in carries against the Saints with 17 rushing attempts for 63 yards and he also saw six targets throughout the game. Ronald Jones also saw double-digit carries and if he sees a similar workload, he could be more viable over on DK than on FD. Jones carries a $5,400 price tag on DK while Fournette is $8,400 so the savings alone for almost splitting carries is worth it over on DK whereas over on FD, they are only a $500 price difference which makes it better to lean towards Fournette. The Packers have a solid run defense as they allow 111.9 yards per game on the ground to opposing teams but could have their hands full as the Bucs will have their one-two punch in Jones and Fournette ready to go.
Analysis: Aaron Jones carried the highest ceiling of all running backs on the slate but his upside could be limited due to the tough matchup against the best defense in the NFL. The Bucs running backs are both viable but Jones is a much better DK play based on price while Fournette looks to be the better Bucs back over on FD. While all of these backs are talented, the matchups are tough and this game could turn into more of a passing game so be cautious in using more than one running back in your cash builds on this showdown slate.
DFS Wide Receivers
This game is loaded with receiving options and the top one to consider is Davante Adams. Adams is coming off of another solid performance as he hauled in 9 catches on 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. Adams has proven this year he is basically matchup proof and can succeed from a fantasy standpoint in almost every game. In his lone game against the Bucs, he hauled in 6 catches on 10 targets for 61 yards. The weakness of this Bucs defense is through the air and Rodgers will look at Adams early and often. Outside of Adams, the Packers have Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Both receivers can be hit or miss from a fantasy standpoint but are worthy of consideration in tournaments. Both receivers saw eight targets each and this could be a trend as opposing defenses will focus on stopping Adams which leaves both Lazard and MVS in more favorable situations. Lazard looks to be the more favorable option on FD due to his price being at $9,000 while MVS is $1,600 cheaper than Lazard over on DK.
The Bucs will be without Antonio Brown due to a knee injury so both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will need to step up in his absence. Evans carries the higher price tag on both sites but Chris Godwin has been the steadier receiver and would be the preferred option since he carries a much higher floor. In the lone matchup against the Packers, Godwin hauled in five catches for 48 yards while Evans only hauled in one catch for 10 total yards. With Brown being out, this opens up some targets for both Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson. Miller was a good slot target for the Bucs before Brown worked his way into the fold so he could see an increase in snaps and targets in this game against Green Bay. Miller is a supreme value over on DK as he is just $1,800 which allows you to spend up elsewhere in your roster construction.
Analysis: Adams is the best receiver on the slate and should be considered in all formats. The pricing on Godwin on both sites is much better than the pricing on Evans and with him carrying a better floor, Godwin looks to be the better play. Lazard, MVS, Miller, and Johnson should all be included in your player pool when constructing your tournament builds as they will be able to free up salary to get
DFS Tight Ends
With all of the other positions having major stars for both teams, the tight end position is really interesting to consider for your lineups and is one way to get different on this slate. The Packers have really made Robert Tonyan a big piece in their offense, specifically in the red zone. Tonyan has 11 receiving touchdowns on the season and is a great value on both sites for the showdown slate. Over on DK, he is the fourth-highest-priced Packer position player while he is the third-highest position player on FD. For the Bucs, they have a strong receiving tight end duo in Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate. Brate has actually seen six more targets than Gronkowski since the start of the playoffs and offers significant salary savings over on FD as he is 2k cheaper while he is $200 more than Gronkowski over on DK. If this trend continues, Brate would be a great play over on FD for his overall price.
Analysis: Tonyan is the safest tight end option on the slate and could be viable in all formats. Both Bucs tight ends should be considered in tournaments and Brate could even be considered in cash games on FD with his recent play and overall cost.
DFS Defense/Special Teams
While both teams have solid defenses, the NFL as a whole has become a very offensive-minded league and both of these teams have some of the best skill position players and quarterbacks in the game. The game total is above 50 and we should see a highly competitive game between these two teams and quite possibly, a game that sees plenty of points being scored. Green Bay is the top offense in the league as they are scoring 31 points per game ad generating 405 total yards of offense per game. The Bucs have had their struggles against the pass this season as they give up 267 passing yards per game and 349.2 total yards per game.
he Bucs on the other hand has the second-best scoring offense as they average 30.3 points per game and average 297.6 passing yards per game which is third-best in the league. Green Bay has a tough pass defense as they hold opponents to just 231.2 passing yards per game but they do give up 22.4 points per game. It looks like it is best to fade both defenses as the offenses are playing at very high levels right now. In addition, both Mason Crosby and Ryan Succop are in play for tournament builds but with how efficient these offenses have been, they might not carry the upside that you might need in tournaments to take down some gpps.
Analysis: With how well both offenses are playing, it might be best to not roster a defense on either fantasy site. Both kickers could be considered but you would need them to have four to five attempts and a few shots from long range to really crush their value.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and remember to mix it up and don't be afraid to be different in these large field GPPs!
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