RADIO
After a solid 6-2 night yesterday, I was inspired to get back at it today and try to keep that momentum going. There was once a time when Thursdays were usually only 2-4 games in the NBA, but this season we've seen the league spread games out more across all days which has given us some solid Tuesdays and Thursdays with 5+ games. Tonight we have seven games in the NBA and I already have a few games that I am eyeing for bets. Just so you know, I usually put out my spread and total bets in the morning then I update this article no later than 3:00 PM with any player props that I love as the books are usually slow to get them up or are waiting on injury updates.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Thursday, March 3, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 111-101-2
- Against the Spread 59-49-2
- Over/Under 25-35
- Other/Props 27-18
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Chicago Bulls (-1.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (231.5 total)
Wow, this spread has moved three points towards Atlanta already so while I am glad I grabbed it at +4.5 first thing this morning, I am also a little bummed I couldn't lock that in as my official pick. That tells me that bettors must feel pretty confident about Trae Young playing tonight as he's currently questionable. As long as Young plays, I like the Hawks to compete here and I think they can pull off a win at home, too.
The Bulls are a solid team this year, but the gap between them and Atlanta isn't all that big right now with how poorly Chicago has been on defense without Lonzo and Caruso. The Hawks nearly upset them last week in Chicago, and I think they could do it tonight at home where they are 18-13 this season. The value here is on the moneyline, and I'm backing Atlanta to get the win.
The Pick: Hawks ML (+105)
Los Angeles Lakers (+2.5) @ L.A. Clippers (218 total)
It might seem like picking the low-hanging fruit by going against the Lakers right now, but can you blame me? This kid is in a hard downward spiral and I wouldn't pick them to win a game against the majority of teams in the league.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are quietly playing well, winning four straight games and six of their last seven. In that recent stretch of wins is a three-point win over the Lakers on the road (which is kind of weird to say when it's literally in the same building they play their home games, too). The Clippers are technically the home team tonight and I'll take their solid recent form over the Lakers' recent poor form here. LeBron simply can't do it all and his frustration is showing on a nightly basis. He's capable of pulling them across the finish line tonight, but I'd rather bet on his teammates failing him again and the young Clippers taking advantage of the dysfunctional Lakers here.
UPDATE: LeBron is officially questionable, too, so grab this line while you can if he gets downgraded at all the Clippers will be heavy favorites by tip.
The Pick: Clippers -2.5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies (+1) @ Boston Celtics (224.5 total)
This spread is all over the place. I saw Boston opened up at +3 and was considering them as a home underdog here, but then I saw that Jaylen Brown wasn't playing tonight. The line movement is going the opposite direction, however, as the Celtics are currently one-point favorites at Caesar's. I'm not sure what to make of that, because while Boston is 8-2 over their last ten and playing their best basketball of the season, the Grizzlies are also 8-2 in their last ten and have been a better team all year than Boston, not just recently.
I really can't pick Boston here with how well Ja Morant is playing and I really don't want to buck the incredibly strong Memphis trends as they're the best team in the NBA ATS this season overall and on the road. I'm backing the Grizzlies to win as I think the Celtics just don't have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Morant without Jaylen Brown.
The Pick: Grizzlies ML (-105)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Golden State Warriors (+1.5) @ Dallas Mavericks (220 total)
We have another rematch of a recent matchup here as Dallas pulled off a huge comeback and upset win over the Warriors on Sunday. This line has already moved a lot, too, as Dallas went from being 2.5 point underdogs to 2.5 favorites. That's a little weird, considering that Klay Thompson is slated to play tonight, but I suppose bettors are in love with Dallas' recent form and feeling leery about backing the Warriors with their recent struggles.
I think the value is probably on betting GSW now, but I don't have the guts to do it. I'm much more interested in the under here, as this game somehow has seen its total tick up to 220 despite all the trends and data pointing to fewer points scored.
Sundays' game finished at 208 and I have this one pegged for around 212 points. That's well below the current total and this game also has the strongest season-long trend of a combined -4.5 point margin for these teams going under their totals this season. We hit a total yesterday and I feel pretty good about this one today, too.
The Pick: UNDER 220 and good down to 217.5 (-110)
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
Reggie Jackson over 6.5 assists (+110) - Jackson has only six assists in his last three games but had gone over six in four straight before that.
Terance Mann over 6.5 rebounds (+115) - another prop with plus odds here and the Lakers suck against guards. Mann has seven or more boards in four straight and six of his last seven games. He's getting the minutes and hitting the glass effectively.
Jakob Poeltl over 27.5 PRA (-110) - I will have to check this number when it comes out on Caesar's but anything under 29 and I'm in on Poeltl in a smash spot that we rode Jo-Val in yesterday against the Kings.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
The Pick: Spurs/Raptors/Clippers ML Parlay (+187)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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