Points League Busts: Second Basemen Set to Fall Short of ADP in 2022

2 years ago by Antonio Losada

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2. Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies

3. Jonathan Schoop, Detroit Tigers

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This article will examine a few eligible second basemen for the 2022 MLB season that are being selected earlier than their Steamer projections suggest they should in points leagues and H2H points formats. RotoBaller's fantasy baseball points analyst Antonio Losada will be offering a few picks for both potential overperformers (sleepers) and shortcomers (busts) when it comes to the following baseball season at each of the six (C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF) rosterable positions through the remainder of the offseason gearing up to training camps and the preseason. ADP figures come from point-format contests over NFBC.

In general, points leagues and H2H points formats are extremely underserved by the fantasy baseball community and fantasy baseball outlets. But in case you weren't aware, here at RotoBaller we really take pride in and specialize in points leagues. All through the preseason and MLB season, we'll be publishing rankings, tools, and analysis articles all geared for fantasy baseball points and H2H points leagues.

Before we get to the players themselves, let's quickly review points leagues and how they are different than other formats. Typically, points leagues have different league settings and scoring formats than other fantasy baseball leagues. Different MLB stats and categories are assigned different point values, and those can vary by individual league settings. Those different point buckets are then added up over the course of a scoring period or season. In many cases, hitters who walk more and strike out less are preferred for points leagues. Also, many league formats tend to give more weight to pitchers than normal as they can easily accrue points through categories like Innings Pitched. Without further ado, let's get it popping!

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Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 65.7 - OVR Rk: 87 - POS Rk: 13

Jesus Christ, the strikeouts. The goddam strikeouts, folks. Steamer, as is the case with pretty much 99% of the projection systems out there, tends to err on the safe/low side of things because they're cautious and don't believe the hype. That said, Steamer is projecting Lowe for a ridiculous 167 SO next season. One. Sixty. Seven. That is 20 more than the next-highest (147), which is already ludicrous. Can't blame poor Steamer, though, as Lowe already posted precisely that 167-figure last year. Uh oh.

Lowe finished 2021 averaging 2.58 FPPG and racking up a total of 384 FP over the year for a top-five finish among 2B players. That's good! The overall ranking was a top-40 one, nothing bad. But man, this guy's profile is hella scary. The K% has been above 25 percent for four seasons in a row, and the BB% has yet to climb above 11.2%. At the end of the day, it's not that Lowe is a bad baseballer. The kid hit 39 homers last season, and also racked up 31 doubles! But man, those strikeouts cut his upside in half and the walks aren't there.

There is some base-stealing prowess baked into Lowe (nothing remarkable, mind you) but it's not that we care about it that much in points leagues--at the end of the day, seven SB are nothing when put against 167 SO. All-or-nothing bet on Lowe sustaining his home-run numbers up, this play. The projections say 32 HR are coming (the most at the position) but, again, they also say the discipline is so bad that the ceiling should be way lower than that of other men going far cheaper off the board this offseason.

Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies

ADP: 131.9 - OVR Rk: 142 - POS Rk: 20

How can you love a man whose offensive contributions are not even projected to be league-average in 2022? That's how Steamer sees McMahon, as his subpar wRC+ of 97 is one of just four below the 100-mark among 2B-eligible players expected to log 550+ PA over the next year. Ugh. McMahon, of course, is not new to this territory and has already set precedent in the past with stupid wRC+ marks of 69, 89, 77, and 95 in the last four seasons. Too bad for McMahon and his fantasy GMs, well, fantasy baseball is a game of offense, stat padding, and bulky numbers. Surely not McMahon's bread and butter.

McMahon has been bouncy where it matters. His xwOBA has fluctuated from .269 to .323, then .293, and a career-high .324 last year. So, should we be buying that last figure, or the expected regression instead? Give me the latter, folks. I'm not fully into another below-.300 season, but I'm closer to that than another .330+ year. The expected BA, SLG, and wOBA are all ranked below the 50th percentile per Statcast, and the combination of low barrels (38th pct. Barrel%) and hyper-dumb 22nd pct. Whiff% gives me all of the pause.

The 144-strikeout projection is quite worrying considering it also comes with a 564-PA attached to it... and that means McMahon has the third-highest SO projection while expected to go to the plate between 60 and 110 times fewer than the only two men above him in that department. Lord have mercy for those drafting RMM early. To be fair, the discipline is slowly but surely getting better, but it's still quite bad for my liking.

Jonathan Schoop, Detroit Tigers

ADP: 147.2 - OVR Rk: 117 - POS Rk: 16

Third year in Detroit for Schoop, who surely needed some fresh air after not getting quite there in his short Minnesotan tenure. Debuting for the Tigers in the Pandemic Season of 2020, we're going to give him a free pass for only ranking as a top-20 2B back then. He improved to a much better top-11 finish among those manning the second bag most afternoons and even got to close 2021 as the 56th-best hitter in ESPN points scoring system.

I don't want to be a boomer, nor a party popper, nor an old-head, but Schoop's BABIP for the past two seasons has been virtually the same at .316 and .317. I'm highlighting those values because they compare to a much lower prior career average of .292, and they also boosted Schoop's AVG to his best figure (.278) since 2017. Good for the soon-to-be 30-year-old Tiger, he got to drop his K% (19.7%) below 20% for the first time since his 2013 cup-o-coffee year, while also raising his walk rate to a career-best 5.5%. LOL. Quite the improvement on a personal level, I guess, but one that is not going to cut it for the savvy and cold fantasy GMs not caring about personal development.

We have yet to see Schoop finish a season with fewer than 115 SO (min. 400 PA), and that is most probably not going to change any time soon. The walks, on the other hand, have yet to go past 37, let alone reaching 40... and, well, let's not talk about those stinky stolen bases. Schoop was getting his solid 60+ XBH yearly right before moving places, but it's now been three seasons in a row (four, if you count 2020) below 55, topping at 53 last season and averaging 48 in the last three (without the Pandemic '20 factored in). I'm not sold on Schoop having another top-15 season when his career average has been that of a top-20-or-worse player on a year-to-year basis. Also: those charts above. Sheesh.

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