RADIO
Before we get into the course breakdown this week, I want to talk about game theory because split-course tournaments add a nuanced approach to the handicapping process. On the surface, quantifiable data should provide a more significant edge to the DFS player or bettor that can properly traverse through the minefield of stats, but at what point do we get caught up in failing to recognize the distinction between vanity (unimportant) and actionable (specific and repeatable) metrics.
You don't have to look any further than the trend from 2011 to 2018 that saw every winner of this week's Farmers Insurance Open play the South Course Thursday and North Course Friday. The general belief from most pundits during that eight-year run was that golfers who had to play three consecutive rounds at the more challenging South setup were at too harsh of a disadvantage because of the discrepancy in difficulty between the tracks, leading to many fantasy gamers blindly stacking their builds to what they perceived to be the optimal route for success. In retrospect, that decision has proven detrimental to many over the past three years after each victor flipped the script and started on the North before ending with the once dreaded barrage at the South, but all of that is what I am trying to explain in a nutshell.
Trends will always be dangerous to track, but even the idea of extra information is only a benefit if we figure out what is essential and how to use it in a simplistic yet calculated manner. We will dive into what can be extrapolated in a tangible sense this weekend at Torrey Pines, but please try to think critically for yourself! There isn't necessarily a correct answer, which is why we can still create an edge over other users.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Farmers Insurance Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Torrey Pines (South)
7,698 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa
Torrey Pines will always have a soft spot in my heart since it is the first course I ever covered when I got into this industry, although it continues to hold its place on my Mount Rushmore of tournaments for more reasons than being a nostalgic trip down memory lane.
The property was initially designed by William F. Bell in the 1950s but experienced a re-design in 2001 by Rees Jones in preparation for the 2008 U.S. Open. Beautiful scenery and views encompass the 36 holes of golf spread out between the North and South properties over the opening two days of the event, but as I mentioned in the intro, everyone who makes the weekend will play both of their rounds back at the South setup. That awkward distribution can be a tricky split when modeling the pertinent data into actionable metrics, but I will quickly run through both stops and see if we can find a discernible connection between the two layouts.
From a statistical standpoint, there is a fine line between how to handle the minor differences. The North requires marginally better iron play than the South, making around the green slightly more applicable, but I do think we start doing more of a disservice to our models than good when we begin to alter the plurality of the data to fit a set narrative that might only be functional a few times during the week. I recommend making a copy of my spreadsheet if you want to weigh the information yourself, but here is what I am using from a statistical perspective for the Farmers Insurance Open.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Torrey Pines | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 285 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 52% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 62% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 51% | 58% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.73 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage (20%) - There is an over-complication regarding the differences between the two stops. Yes, 440 yards is a stark difference, but 233 of that comes on the four par-fives. While both locations see these holes as their four easiest scoring possibilities, the length reduction at the North provides an increase of 15.22% over the South in terms of birdie or better percentage. Golfers will need to score any time they get one of these birdie-making locations, and the inability to do so at the North could prove extremely costly.
- Weighted Proximity 150+ Yards (15%) - If you know me, you know that I love to redistribute the proximity totals on my end to mimic the exact specifications of a track. Strokes gained data in any category will only be as valuable as the connection you can draw to the course in front of the golfers, but I decided to alter the percentages to simulate a venue that only had iron play from 150 yards and beyond. Sure, that route is dangerous since it removes 33.9% of second shots for the week, but the historical impact of long-iron proximity at Torrey Pines was too difficult to ignore. The winner of this event will be the one who can create opportunities on the par-fives, and those developments will occur when a long iron is in hand.
- Ball-Striking (15%) - The PGA Tour's definition of the term is marginally different from the socially accepted variant, which looks at a combination of off-the-tee and approach play. I made a recalculated metric that took 75% driving distance and combined it to 25% accuracy to form my total driving stat and then incorporated that new number into 70% of my weight and merged it with a 30% impact of greens in regulation to produce a ball-striking return. We need players that hit it long and straight since the rough can be nearly a half-stroke penalty, and the GIR percentage added to it eliminates some tricky situations that could come into play when missing the putting surface.
- Weighted Short Game (15%) - Like the example above, I am trying to enrich my numbers to equal a more sustainable metric that can amplify our long-term success at this venue. I used multiple categories in this process, including three-putt percentage, strokes gained around the green and sand save rate to get my new weighted short-game outlook.
- Long Par-Threes + Long Par-Fours (10%) - For lack of a better term, these will be your survival holes. We are looking for golfers who can salvage their scores with their ability to play from the specified distances needed.
- Strokes Gained Total On Long/Difficult Courses (10%) - Categories like this are easily put together and provide the truest definition of what we have in store. If nothing else is certain, you can't fake the yardage on the scorecard.
- Combined Poa (15%) - I blended strokes gained total on Poa and strokes gained putting on Poa to get my new projection. I liked that assortment because it highlighted a comprehensive array of what to expect on the surface and not just the total aspect that allowed bad putters to get away with no repercussions to their projection.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are six players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Jon Rahm ($11,200) - We might want to start calling this the Jon Rahm category for the foreseeable future. The 27-year-old has made nine of his last 10 cuts, posting every finish inside the top 17 when we take away his head-scratcher at the Fortinet in September, and his upside for high-end success remains the best on tour. Rahm's ability to combine a mixture of distance and accuracy ranks him first in the field, and the cards continue to turn up Spanish red when we dive into his history at Torrey Pines. Rahm took down the U.S. Open in 2021 to win his first major title, and he has also produced four other top-seven results — including a 2017 victory at the track.
- Most Upside: Xander Schauffele ($10,100) - The local narrative hasn't always worked out for Xander Schauffele, who started his career at Torrey Pines as if he were the 1969 expansion San Diego Padres team that couldn't hit a pitch if you placed it on a tee. The main difference between those two examples is that the Padres were meant to be bottom-feeders early in their tenure, providing finishes that didn't shock many when they struggled out of the gates, but Schauffele's floundering in his first few starts at Torrey Pines came as a surprise since the track seemed like an ideal location for him to dominate for years to come. We have since seen the 28-year-old post three top-25 finishes during his last four stops at his home track, but the American is more of a boom-or-bust option than anyone would care to recognize for the time being. I believe we get the best version out of him this week, which is good enough to win the event, but let's keep an eye on his popularity because any level of overexposure by the masses will make him a natural fade candidate.
- Favorite GPP Play: Justin Thomas ($10,900) - I understand the concerns around Justin Thomas. We haven't seen him at the Farmers since 2015 — an event where he missed the cut, but his 19th-place finish during the 2021 U.S. Open might be more telling for his chances than one might imagine. Thomas entered the back-nine on that day at Torrey Pines with a real shot to win his second major, but multiple hiccups at the par-four 10th and par-three 16th sent the American plummeting off the first page of the leaderboard. It is hard to compare apples to oranges when trying to look at a major championship venue versus a more accessible PGA Tour event, but the removal of some of the difficulty is going to be a massive benefit for the former number-one golfer in the world. By no means is Thomas a poor player at challenging courses, but he goes from the top-ranked golfer on tour in a birdie-fest down to 25th at a more demanding track. While things won't come easy this week, it isn't impossible to score and take advantage of some of these par-fives — a category where Thomas ranks first on tour.
- Fade: None - Dustin Johnson ($10,300) is technically my least favorite target in this range, but anything under 10 percent might start to turn him into a contrarian pivot. It is challenging to find many full-fade-type plays in the field this week, as pricing looks proper throughout the slate.
- Most Likely Winner: Xander Schauffele ($10,100) - The breakthrough victory at Torrey Pines will happen at some point, and I am willing to take my chances at his current ownership projection.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Marc Leishman ($9,000) - Australians have experienced dominance at this tournament over the years, with Marc Leishman winning the event in 2020 and Jason Day taking home the title twice in 2015 and 2018. Oh, how I will find ways to fit Day into any section or tournament I write about weekly, but the success isn't some random outlier that should be overlooked. Kikuya grass is a sticky texture that drives pros wild because of the inconsistency of how the ball comes off your club, but it is something most natives of Australia are used to while growing up in the country. Leishman has credited his early experience with the surface as to why he has dominated throughout his career at this event, and he ranks fourth overall on my model when trying to find cash-game safety.
- Most Upside: Tony Finau ($9,100) - To go back to a statement that I made at the beginning of this article, the Farmers Insurance Open was the first tournament I ever covered from a gambling or DFS standpoint, and Tony Finau was the headline for that piece when it came to my pick to win the event. At the time, the American was struggling to find his second career win on tour, but it was one of those situations where you knew a player was better than the number of wins he had to his name, even if the results were not following what the long-term metrics presented. I realize there are some concerns with the form he is providing entering the event this season, but his course history reads like a beautiful novel, and the only thing we need to wrap up this story is a final punctuation mark that culminates in victory.
- Favorite GPP Play: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900) - Let's ignore the missed cuts from Bryson DeChambeau here in 2017 and 2018. That is generally not a stance you will hear me take, but the American has transformed his body more than any golfer I have ever seen. It wouldn't be fair for us to compare the 175-pound version of DeChambeau from 2017 to the shredded 240-pound rendition we have of him today, and we shouldn't be treating past results that he has provided in that fashion either. There is always a downside when you back the big-hitter on any DFS slate, but the fact that we can deploy him at both sub-$10,000 on DraftKings and sub-10 percent in popularity is enough for me to find myself bulked up in exposure.
- Fade: None - I know these are boring answers, but it is hard to fade what the industry is already ignoring. The lack of intrigue around guys like Jordan Spieth ($9,400) or even Dustin Johnson ($10,300) in the section above turns some of these golfers into interesting contrarian pivots, even if they aren't my go-to choices.
- Most Likely Winner: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Ryan Palmer ($8,100) - Ryan Palmer might be able to create some savings in salary at his $8,100 price tag if my model is accurate about him being one of the safest players on the board. Much of that floor output stems from his four consecutive top-21 finishes at this event, but we even see it from a statistical perspective, with him ranking inside the top-30 in ball-striking, par-five birdie or better percentage and weighted proximity over 150 yards. Part of me believes Maverick McNealy should be the answer to this question with his 14 made cuts in 15 starts, but I will trust my math being correct over my intuition.
- Most Upside: Matthew Wolff ($8,500) - After burning the industry during his previous start at the American Express, Matthew Wolff gets a lucrative bounce-back opportunity at the Farmers Insurance Open. There will always be extreme volatility around him, which I noted last week when discussing his chances, but this is a better setup to get the most out of his game. Wolff ranks seventh in my model for par-five scoring and is inside the top five for distance and proximity 150 yards and beyond.
- Favorite GPP Play: Max Homa ($8,400) - Look no further than Max Homa's output for par-five birdie or better percentage and Poa scoring. I believe those are two of the most critical statistics we can use this week to try and locate potential winners down the board, and the American places himself into excellent territory alongside Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Sam Burns, grading as one of only five golfers to rank inside the top 10 of both categories. It doesn't hurt that those other four players are priced at $9,700 or above, making Homa a bargain with upside potential at his price tag.
- Fade: Corey Conners ($8,800) - Some red flags are poking through the cracks for Corey Conners this weekend in California. The Canadian ranks 113th in my adjusted model for strokes gained around the green and fails to crack the top 100 in strokes gained putting on Poa greens. Sure, the iron proximity will be good for one of the best true ball-strikers in the world, but there is a danger of what happens if Conners doesn't hit as many greens as he usually does throughout his round.
- Most Likely Winner: Max Homa ($8,400)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Luke List ($7,600) - I put Luke List here with some trepidation because of his 21% projection as of Monday night. I don't want to turn this into more of a runaway than we already have, but we can safely ignore ownership when trying to construct cash-game builds or even single-entry lineups. List has a game that can compete at a big-boy track like the South, and we have seen him produce four straight top-40 finishes at the property since 2018.
- Most Upside: Joaquin Niemann ($7,700) - I couldn't tell you where Joaquin Niemann is with his game after missing back-to-back cuts to end the 2021 season. We last saw him in action over two months ago, but the pricing has undoubtedly become deflated because of the lack of information in the market. At his best, Niemann is a pristine ball striker that has proven deadly at these tests that require total driving and long iron play. And at his worse, well, it is the missed cut barrage we received at the end of the previous calendar year. At sub-10 percent ownership, I am okay with taking some chances on the positives in GPP contests, but the floor is lower than the bottom of a bunker.
- Favorite GPP Play: Wyndham Clark ($7,200) - There is a potential opening for Wyndham Clark that my model noticed when I was running the data. If we remove his past six starts on tour, Clark had only gained once in 15 tournaments with his irons — posting a measly half-stroke to the field at the Valspar in May, but there has been a change as of late — highlighted by him gaining with his irons in four of his previous six appearances. The 220th-ranked golfer in the world has two top-40s in his three tries at Torrey Pines, and the mid-season resurgence might be in full effect for us to target him over these next few months.
- Fade: Hudson Swafford ($7,200) -I am not a believer in fading a golfer solely because they won a tournament the week prior, but I am someone that is going to look to find an excuse to pivot elsewhere when it bumps their stock up higher than it should be during their next start. The Georgia product hasn't made a cut at this tournament over the past five years, and a lot of the stability he got from the greens at the American Express will be negated on the South Course, as he ranks 133rd on Poa over his past 50 rounds.
- Most Likely Winner: Wyndham Clark ($7,200)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
I am trying to avoid this range if possible, but Trey Mullinax ($6,200), Sepp Straka ($6,300), Sahith Theegala ($6,500), J.T. Poston ($6,400) and Tyler McCumber ($6,300) would be my dart throws. Straka is the most intriguing target of the group after looking solid with his intangibles during the past two starts, and while I wouldn't call him a good putter when looking at the core of that category, Poa has historically been a different story for the Austrian golfer. Straka's most robust finishes have percolated from him on this surface in the past, and the price tag is fascinating if we want to weigh the upside potential into his projection.
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