Finding Tight End Breakouts - Champs, Chumps, and Contenders

Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 7. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.

We're currently in the worst week of NFL byes and it's hitting the tight end position hard. Fantasy managers will need to make do without Dan Arnold, Dalton Schultz, Jared Cook and Dawson Knox. On top of that, Logan Thomas is still on IR. On the bright side, fantasy managers will get Kyle Pitts back from his Week 6 bye week after a bit of a coming-out performance in Week 5. On top of that, it looks like fantasy managers will need to have insurance plans for Knox who underwent surgery on his broken hand during their matchup with the Titans.

Over the next couple of weeks, fantasy managers will need to make some tough decisions as to which tight end they're going to go with when their primary starters have their bye weeks. Next week, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller will both be off. The week after that, it'll be T.J. Hockenson, Rob Gronkowski, Logan Thomas and Gerald Everett. Looking through the waiver wire at this position is always ugly, but it's important fantasy managers give themselves the best chance of finding a suitable streamer and to do that, fantasy managers need to be chasing usage and opportunity.

The other big news fantasy managers received this past week was the trade that sent Zach Ertz to the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals had previously lost their starter, Maxx Williams, to a season-long injury. Since they have championship aspirations, they had a hole they needed to fill. This trade has massive implications at the tight end position. First off, it gives Dallas Goedert a clear pathway to being a top-six tight end. We'll be looking at both of these two tight ends so fantasy managers can determine what to expect in their new situations, as well as several other tight ends that have popped up over recent weeks.

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Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts

Any time a tight end scores three touchdowns in three weeks, fantasy managers are going to take notice and that's exactly what is happening with Mo Alie-Cox. Fantasy managers have been crying for Alie-Cox to get more playing time. He's 6'5" and 267 pounds – just a mountain of a man. He gives Carson Wentz a huge catch radius. The other positive fantasy managers often point to is there are very few options in the passing game for Indy. They just lost Parris Campbell to the IR. T.Y. Hilton is banged up again, which really just leaves Michael Pittman.

There are some positive signs in his usage the past three weeks too. In Weeks 1–3, Jack Doyle was the clear lead tight end for the Colts. He ran 75 routes compared to Alie-Cox's 47. This was illustrated in their snap counts as well, which Doyle dominated 130 to 94. During those first three weeks, Doyle received 14 targets and Alie-Cox had five. Needless to say, Doyle was much more productive. He caught nine of his 15 targets and turned them into 95 scoreless yards. Meanwhile, Alie-Cox only mustered three catches for 32 yards.

From Weeks 4–6, Alie-Cox led Doyle in routes run, 38 to 30. The problem was rookie Kylen Granson also got much more involved with 26 routes run. In Weeks 1–3, he didn't receive a single target. On the positive side, Alie-Cox has been the preferred tight end option for the Colts over the last three weeks, but it looks like a full-blown committee. Alie-Cox took a slight lead in snaps played, 104 to 102 over the last three weeks. Unfortunately for Alie-Cox, Granson's role continued to evolve. Granson only played 25 snaps in Weeks 1–3 and that ballooned to 42 in Weeks 4–6.

As far as production, Alie-Cox's value is largely being propped up by his touchdowns. Alie-Cox received 11 targets, whereas Doyle had three and Granson received four. Alie-Cox has had 120 receiving yards over the last three weeks. Doyle recorded 28 and Granson had 22. Neither of those two scored a touchdown, where Alie-Cox has had three. What did the most recent week look like?

Doyle played more snaps, 31 to 24. They each ran nine routes. The volume, usage, and opportunity are extremely low here. The three-headed committee of Doyle, Granson and Alie-Cox is negatively affecting all of their fantasy values. Mo Alie-Cox is a classic example of chasing touchdowns and yesterday's points. Unfortunately, touchdowns are not a precursor to future touchdowns. Volume is, and Alie-Cox is significantly lacking in that department. Do not trust this illusion.

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals

The best way to understand what fantasy managers can expect from Ertz is to look at what Maxx Williams provided. Unfortunately, it's likely going to leave fantasy managers wanting a bit more. Williams was lost in the first half of their Week 5 game, so we'll be looking at Weeks 1–4.

In those first four weeks, Williams finished as TE14 in half-PPR scoring. That ranking, based on his usage, is likely higher than what should have been expected. During that time, Kyler Murray attempted 134 passes and Williams ran a route on 86 of them or 64%. He received 16 targets, which left him averaging four targets per game. That kind of usage leaves a lot to be desired and has the look of a touchdown-dependent play on most weeks.

If fantasy managers want to be able to depend on Ertz on a weekly basis, they'll need his role in Arizona to be more involved than Williams's was. Ertz is more talented than Williams and it isn't a stretch to expect Kingsbury to want to use his new acquisition – it's just unknown what that will look like right now. The hesitancy with an increased role for Ertz is that it will come at the expense of Christian Kirk or sensational rookie, Rondale Moore.

Cardinals TE target rate by season:
2019 10.6%
2020 12.5%
2021 11.3%

Either Zach Ertz is no longer relevant for Fantasy or he's taking targets from Hopkins/Green/Kirk/Moore/Edmonds

— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) October 19, 2021

If there is a positive, however, it's that Ertz has gone from one of the worst offenses to one of the best. And there's no questioning that Kyler Murray is a significantly better quarterback than Jalen Hurts at this point in their careers. Fantasy managers who have Ertz are best served trying to trade him. Right now, his fantasy value is likely at its highest point of the season with the excitement around the trade. If there's a league mate who is going to value him as a top-12 tight end the rest of the way, it's a trade fantasy managers should be pouncing on.

During those first four weeks, Kyler Murray spread the ball around to primarily six different receivers. DeAndre Hopkins had a 19.4% share, A.J. Green was at 18.6%, Chase Edmonds was at 17.1% and Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore were both at 14.0%. Coming in last was Maxx Williams with a 10.0% target share. Zach Ertz is best viewed as a touchdown-dependent TE2 the rest of the way, but with Murray at quarterback, he has the potential to hit more often than some other tight ends.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

The real winner in the Zach Ertz trade is most certainly Dallas Goedert. Ertz and Goedert have consistently eaten into each other's value and workload. Through the first five weeks, Goedert still managed to be a top-10 tight end despite the near 50/50 split with Ertz. Just how bad was that split?

In Weeks 1–5, out of 182 Jalen Hurts' pass attempts, Goedert was in a route on 124 of them – Ertz was at 120. The snap share was slightly more in Goedert's favor, 224 to 185. Despite these factors that leaned towards Goedert, it was Ertz who out-targeted Goedert, 23 to 19. Goedert, however, had a 14.4 yard per reception average while Goedert was at 11.4 yards. With both of them in Philly, they averaged 4.6 targets per game (Ertz) and 3.8 targets per game for Goedert. It's not quite as easy as simply giving Ertz's targets to Goedert, but fantasy managers should be expecting Goedert to settle in around 6–8 targets per game. If he were to average seven targets that would equal 112 targets over a full 16-game pace. That kind of volume definitely gives him top-5 upside.

Dallas Goedert was only running a route on 59% of dropbacks in a timeshare with Zach Ertz.

He should push past 80% (elite) now and carries a historical targets-per-route run of 20% (near elite).

He moves to TE7 rest of the season and will challenge T.J. Hockenson for TE6 status

— Context Matters (@dwainmcfarland) October 15, 2021

In four out of six games, Hurts has thrown 35 or more passes. That is a lot of passing volume and Goedert should be at the heart of it. The lack of pass-catchers in Philly also gives Goedert a clear pathway to be his No 2 target, which is one of the most important things fantasy managers should be looking for in their elite tight ends.

I expect Goedert to out-score Hockenson the rest of the way, although it will be close. Their situations are almost identical right now. While most will say that Hockenson is Goff's No. 1 target and Goedert is Hurts' No. 2, the Eagles have a better offense and the better quarterback. His arrow is pointing way up and fantasy managers should be excited about his rest of the season outlook.

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Howard came to life in Week 6 and likely gave fantasy managers hope. He was a highly drafted prospect out of Alabama and many thought he would become the next elite fantasy football tight end, but that has never happened. It's never really come close. Now, Howard is stuck in an ugly three-headed committee with Tom Brady's best buddy, Rob Gronkowski leading the way, which drastically limits the appeal for Cameron Brate and Howard. However, Gronk has been out since Week 4.

From Weeks 4–6, Howard actually leads Brate in snaps played, 144 to 122. Unfortunately, for Howard's fantasy prospects, Brate has been the preferred receiving option. In Weeks 4–5, Brate ran 51 routes to Howard's 33. That extra opportunity led to more volume with Brate receiving seven targets to Howard's three. Neither player did much with their targets. Howard caught two for 19 scoreless yards, while Brate caught three for 41 scoreless yards. The production changed in Week 6 though, but did any of the peripherals that are indicative of future fantasy success change with it?

The answer, not even close. Howard once again played more snaps than Brate, 49 to 44. Brate, however, was once again the preferred receiving option. He ran 27 routes to Howard's 18. Howard caught six of his seven targets for 49 yards and a touchdown. Brate caught three of his four targets for 26 scoreless yards.

In Weeks 1–3, Brate out-snapped and ran significantly more routes than Howard, 53 to 13. Although Howard has the better fantasy game under his belt, there's nothing to suggest this is something fantasy managers should expect moving forward – or at the least, during Gronk's IR stay. Unless Howard is traded to a more fantasy-friendly environment, he should stay on the waiver wire.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team

Oftentimes, fantasy managers expect whenever a player gets hurt, their backup will just simply walk into the same role. That, however, is rarely the case, but for Ricky Seals-Jones, it seems like he's a walking Logan Thomas clone.

Ricky Seals-Jones last two weeks:

* 141-of-142 snaps
* Slot or wide 88 times
* 83 routes on 93 Heinicke dropbacks
* 15 targets for 18.7% share
* 9-99-1 result

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 18, 2021

Fantasy managers should expect RSJ to be a viable tight end option and a top-12 play for the duration of the time that Thomas is on the sidelines. His usage and opportunity numbers are elite. He's been in a route on 89% of Heinicke's and has an 18.7% target share. Over the past two weeks, RSJ is top-seven among tight ends in targets per game.

Fantasy managers will need to monitor his injury status. He missed Wednesday's practice with a quad injury, but as long as he's active, he can be plugged into your starting lineup as a top-12 tight end.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

Freiermuth went and had his best game as a pro in Week 6. So what does that mean moving forward for him? Can he become someone fantasy managers can depend on? Let's take a look at an exciting rookie.

With JuJu Smith-Schuster out last night, Pat Freiermuth set season highs in ...

* Snap rate (60%)
* Targets (7)
* Catches (7)
* Yards (58)

His 2nd biggest target count of the season (5) came back in Week 2 when JuJu was knocked out by a shoulder injury in the 2nd quarter.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 18, 2021

Unfortunately for Freiermuth, he's struggling with Eric Ebron's presence in the same manner that Goedert was struggling with Ertz's. While the rookie has out-snapped the veteran in five out of six games, the overall total is very close. While Friermuth has the seasonal advantage, 201-185, the difference is marginal at best.

Over the first five weeks of the season, Ben Roethlisberger attempted 195 passes. Ebron was in a route on 112 of them and played on 120 of the passing plays. Freiermuth was in a route on 88 of those attempts and on the field for 96 of them overall. That left the rookie in a route on 45% of the dropbacks and Ebron was at 57%.

In Week 6, Big Ben threw the ball 40 times. It was only the second time where Freiermuth ran more routes than Ebron – the last time was in Week 2. In Week 6, the rookie ran three more routes than Ebron, 22 to 19. That still left Freiermuth running a route on just 55% of Big Ben's dropbacks. That limited opportunity won't allow his fantasy production to be anything close to consistent.

If there's a positive, it's that the Steelers are on the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL. They're averaging 39 attempts per game, which is the eighth highest. Last year, Ebron had 91 targets in 15 games. With Smith-Schuster's injury, it's possible more targets are funneled to the tight ends. JuJu had a very low average depth of target, a role that could be replicated by Ebron and Freiermuth. Unfortunately, we didn't see that in Week 6. The tight end duo combined for just 11 routes out of the slot.

As long as Ebron remains a Steeler, Freiermuth's fantasy value is going to be inconsistent and very limited due to the split workload and limited volume. Dynasty managers should be excited about his future, but as far as his 2021 value, it's going to be spotty at best. Fantasy managers are best served looking elsewhere.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

Despite Matthew Stafford's prolific start to his Los Angeles Rams career, Higbee has mostly disappointed. Through six weeks, he's currently clocking in at 15th among tight ends in points per game. It's certainly not what fantasy football managers were expecting after the Stafford acquisition. Unfortunately, it looks like Higbee is likely to disappoint again. Week 6, however, was a positive step.

Highest % of routes run per dropback in Week 6 (TEs)

Tyler Higbee - 94% 💎
Ricky Seals-Jones - 93% 🔥
Travis Kelce - 84%
T.J. Hockenson - 83%
Noah Fant - 81%
Darren Waller - 80%
C.J. Uzomah- 79%
Hunter Henry- 77%
Evan Engram - 76% 🙃
Zach Ertz - 74%
Mike Gesicki - 71%

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 18, 2021

Despite that 94% route run per dropback rate in Week 6, he was able to turn that excellent opportunity into just five catches for 36 scoreless yards. He's been in a route on almost 85% of Stafford's dropbacks, which is an elite number. He has 170 routes run and the tight end behind him, Johnny Mundt ha 31. The issue is Higbee has only been targeted on 12.5% of Stafford's attempts. He has 25 targets through six weeks, which amounts to just over four targets per game. That target number is tied at 19th with Jonnu Smith, which is a big yikes.

Pretty much 25% of Tyler Higbee’s career receptions & yards across 78 games have come in 5 games from weeks 13-17 in 2019. That’s insane. In those 5 games he had 84 yards receiving in all of them. He had never before & never since broken 67 yards in a game. Oofta….

— Rob (@RobFFAddict) August 26, 2021

He's managed to break 67 yards this season, back in Week 1 – he ended with 68. Right now, Stafford only has eyes for Cooper Kupp and if defenses start to take away his No. 1 option, Higbee and possibly Robert Woods might become a bit more consistent. Right now, Van Jefferson currently has a higher target share than Higbee, which leaves Higbee as the No. 4 option for the Los Angeles passing attack.

Fantasy managers should always be eyeing up a tight end who will be in the top-two of their team's target hierarchy. At worst, we need them to be No. 3 if they're going to be a consistent fantasy producer. And if they're the third option, it needs to be in a pass-heavy offense. The Rams are that, but right now Higbee is operating as the fourth target, and even there, he has Darrell Henderson nipping at his heels. Until he starts getting targeted more, he's going to continue to be a touchdown-dependent tight end despite the optimism he could be more.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

Going into the 2021 season, Gesicki was a tight end I was actively avoiding. There were simply too many mouths to feed in what I expected to be a low-volume offense. Neither has been true through six weeks. With the injuries to Will Fuller and DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki and rookie Jaylen Waddle have been able to operate as the top-two passing options. After a surprising 2020 season, the defense has struggled this year. As has the running game and this has forced the Dolphins to be more pass-happy than they'd like. They're currently throwing the ball 39.5 times per game, which is the seventh-highest in the NFL. That was with them missing their starting quarterback for the better part of four games.

That increased volume and the injuries to his target competition have allowed Gesicki to be a top-eight tight end through six weeks. He's also top-eight among tight ends in targets per game. He's third in air yards per game among tight ends and is third among tight ends with at least 18 targets (three per game) in average depth of target.

Mike Gesicki has been a top-seven tight end in weekly scoring (PPR) in three of his last four games. Target shares in each game during this timeframe:

Week 3: 25.5%
Week 4: 20.0%
Week 5: 17.9%
Week 6: 19.1%

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 17, 2021

If those target shares weren't enough, fantasy managers should love this: Through six weeks, Gesicki has the most routes run in the slot among all tight end and is third in routes run split out wide.

"Tight end" Mike Gesicki has played 250 snaps this season and just 16 of them have been in-line. Slot 164 and wide 70.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 18, 2021

He's essentially a wide receiver – there is no higher praise for a tight end than to be used as a wide receiver. It's why Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts have such a high upside. Gesicki is being used in a similar manner. Fantasy managers should continue enjoying the ride. As Tua Tagovailoa gets more comfortable back at quarterback, the upside is there for him to be a top-seven tight end. Right now, he's just a point per game behind Hockenson. He's currently on pace for 85 catches and 969 yards – just excellent usage and volume and Gesicki is making the most of it. Lock him into your lineups.

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