RADIO
Eric Samulski breaks down the state of the Jacksonville Jaguars offense from a fantasy perspective after Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season to determine the value of each key player at QB, RB, WR, and TE.
What a Week 1 we had! I know what you're feeling. The urge is building up inside of you to make a move, cut a struggling player, jump on the next big thing, or trade with a concerned manager. However, I urge you not to be rash. We spend months doing research into these players and offenses, and we don't want to throw all of that away after one game.
However, we do want to dig into context clues. Even if we're not immediately making a change, we should look at whether or not the team operated in the way we expected them to. Every player can have a bad week or two, but if their role on the team is not what was hinted at or what we saw in the preseason, then there are times where we need to make some adjustments.
There were few teams that had more question marks coming into the season than the Jaguars. How would Trevor Lawrence look in his rookie season? How would Urban Meyer adapt to the NFL game? Would Laviska Shenault Jr. take a step forward? Who would be their tight end? How would the running back rotation shake out after Travis Etienne's injury? These are all questions that we might not get complete answers to until a few weeks from now, but we finally have some actionable evidence to use as we begin to make that decision. That's why today we're exploring the question: what do we now know about the Jaguars' offense and what should we do about it?
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Quarterback
All stat tables are from Jon Anderson's public tableau, which you can check out here.
Trevor Lawrence (No Change, Slightly Worried)
The highly-touted rookie quarterback didn't quite deliver in his first start, going 28/51 for 332 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. However, some of the best quarterbacks in our lifetime have thrown multiple interceptions in their first game. Yes, he misread some coverages. Yes, his wide receivers dropped some passes. No, I don't care about any of that. Lawrence showed the ability to hang in the pocket and make strong throws, as well as the ability to buy himself extra time. He has a solid trip of wide receivers, and I fully expect him and this passing offense to get into a bit more of a rhythm as the season goes on.
Where I'm concerned is in the scheme of this offense. There were a lot of passes close to the line of scrimmage, as evidence by Lawrence totaling only 5.9% deep passes despite being down all game. Additionally, the Jaguars' best running back wasn't on the field enough, and perhaps most importantly, Lawrence only had one rush.
Now, the Clemson product is not Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen, but Lawrence can move, and the idea of a rushing floor for him made me more bullish on him than Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, who were both going around the same ADP. If the Jaguars are going to not going to push the ball downfield and also not design plays for Lawrence to get outside the pocket and use his legs, then I'm not sure we're going to see the consistent floor that I thought we would see from the rookie.
However, the team is going to be down and passing a lot, so I expect Lawrence to have many strong fantasy weeks when the real-life performance isn't quite as inspiring. As a result, I'm not changing my valuation on him at all yet, but I hope we get to see more of the rushing ability or I may have to lower my ceiling expectations.
Running Backs
James Robinson (Stock Down but also Buying Low)
In a game where most people expected Robinson to smash, he severely disappointed with five rushes for 25 yards and six targets in the passing game for three catches and 29 yards. Seeing Robinson only get 31% of the rushes is a major concern for people who thought that he could repeat as a top-10 running back like he was during his rookie campaign in 2020. However, most people were operating under the assumption that Carlos Hyde would siphon carries from Robinson and that Urban Meyer would do some ill-advised Urban Meyer things. Well, both happened, and so Robinson's stock naturally has to diminish.
However, given Robinson's involvement in the passing game, I still think we can treat him as a low-end RB2, which may reflect more confidence than the manager who has Robinson in your league currently. Realistically, I expect the Jaguars to be trailing a lot this season, so Robinson's passing game role will raise his floor. I also don't envision Carlos Hyde having as high of a rush share in subsequent weeks, and Robinson was in on 65% of the snaps in a game that looked like a blowout at times, so I urge you not to read too much into one bad game. Plus, as Trevor Lawrence continues to improve and put more pressure on opposing defenses, I think he will raise the offense's level of play along with him. Don't expect last season, but don't bail on Robinson either.
Carlos Hyde (No Change, No Interest)
Carlos Hyde led the Jaguars with nine rushes for 44 yards, figuratively operating as the lead back from a rushing perspective. However, Hyde didn't look explosive as a runner and figures to not break many big runs during the year. Further limiting his upside is that he was targeted only twice in the passing game, while Robinson was targeted six times.
If Jacksonville isn't going to use Hyde as much in the passing game, then he remains pretty much unusable outside of the deepest leagues since Jacksonville figures to trail a lot this season. He's a cat with nine lives, so he's going to get carries and be a thorn in Robinson's side, but I'm not interested in Hyde by himself unless there was an injury.
Wide Receivers
Laviska Shenault Jr. (Stock Down)
OK, I'm a bit concerned here. After Travis Etienne went down for the season, we saw the Jaguars deploy Shenault in a number of different ways, including lining him up in the backfield, so it appeared that he would be the perfect Swiss Army knife for a team that figured to be down and throwing a lot this year. Unfortunately, we saw that the Swiss Army knife might be a bit dull.
In a game where the Jaguars were down, and down big pretty much all game, he ended up tied for second on the team with nine targets and a 19% target share but was a distant third in air yards among the three wide receivers and even trailed the tight ends. His average depth of target (aDOT) of 3.1 is shockingly low for a player with his explosive ability and only compiling 28 air yards on seven catches and nine targets will severely cap his upside.
I was a bit worried about how Urban Meyer would translate to the NFL game, but if this is going to be his approach, then Laviska is is going to be confined to the bench unless you're in a deep full-PPR league. I expect a lot of lines like this with high target totals but limited yardage and scores; kind of like a glorified Danny Amendola from four years ago. I'm not cutting him yet, but he's glued to my bench until I see if Meyer will open up the offense a bit more for Laviska.
D.J. Chark Jr. (Stock Up)
Well, this was a surprise. After being written off by many people after a disappointing third season, Chark led the team with 12 targets, finishing with three catches for 86 yards and a touchdown. Obviously, the 25% catch rate isn't ideal, but we can't ignore the target share or the air yards per target. Chark's 16.6 aDOT shows that he's the clear deep threat on a team that figures to be down and throwing often. That means that even with some inefficiency, he could have big weeks thanks to one big play or multiple garbage time catches.
He also had the highest snap share of the wide receivers, so it's not as if he's only in there when they're running a deep look. Despite the lack of catches, he was a clear winner in terms of usage from Week 1 and I'd be looking to add him in most leagues where he's available in case this usage keeps up.
Marvin Jones Jr. (Stock Up)
Despite being the "boring old veteran," Marvin Jones was always an intriguing addition to this team. His size and red-zone skills figured to make him a solid safety blanket for a rookie quarterback, and we saw that a bit in Week 1. He was tied for second on the team with nine targets, hauling in five of them for 77 yards and a touchdown. Perhaps most importantly, he was on the field more than any other wide receiver in Jacksonville and also had a strong aDOT at 11.6 yards, which means Lawrence will take shots to him down the field. His 55.6% catch rate reflects a bit more sure-handedness than Chark showed, which is also backed up by Jones' strong career marks.
It seems that while Jones might not have the PPR upside of Shenault or the game-breaking chances that Chark gets, he is going to be the most reliable wide receiver week-in and week-out because of his role in the offense. There is a place for that on your fantasy team.
Tight Ends
James O'Shaughnessy (Stock Up, Put on Watchlist) led the position with eight targets, finishing with six catches for 48 yards; however, it was Chris Manhertz who scored the touchdown on his only target and catch, a 22-yard score. You'd be best to file that last part under "Noise"; however, I think O'Shaughnessy might deserve your attention. He was on the field for 79.7% of the team's snaps and had a 17% target share, which put him fourth, only 2% behind Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jone Jr.
I'm not entirely sure Lawrence will throw 50+ passes that often, but O'Shaughnessy has a massive advantage over Manhertz in snap share and target rate and is the clear fourth option in this passing game. I currently would not roster any tight end from Jacksonville outside of the deepest leagues, but I'm adding O'Shaughnessy onto my watch lists to see if this level of production remains for another week or two. If so, he would fight for a spot in 12-team leagues.
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