RADIO
John Brubaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings for Week 1 of Thursday Night Football - Cowboys vs. Bucs. His daily fantasy football advice and value plays.
Happy Wednesday and happy football season Rotoballers! In what feels like the longest wait ever, NFL football is finally back. This will be my first football article writing for you all, and I'm totally stoked to share my thoughts with you. Most of us started our fantasy journies with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on September 9th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like!
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DFS Quarterbacks
The age-less Terrific Tom suits up for his 22nd NFL season, and we get to watch him on Thursday Night Football! We all remember the hilarious 4th down incompletion last year against Chicago, but I don't think this year will be a repeat performance. He matches up well against Dallas, who had a pass DVOA of 13.1% last year. With weapons at his disposal, I expect Tom to have himself a night.
I'm going to rip the band-aid open early here, I'm an Eagles fan. Despite that, it was hard to ignore the MVP-caliber campaign that Dak was putting together in the first quarter of the season. Injuries happen in football, but no one wants to see something special halted. Thankfully, he's better now and ready to go for week 1. It's safe to say this isn't a matchup he would've hand-picked, though, considering that Tampa had an adjusted sack rate of 7.9% last season, as well as a pass DVOA of -5.4%. It's a tough go, but with the talent of the Dallas offense, you'll always want some Dak in your lineups.
DFS Running Backs
GIOOOOOOO! My guy has finally escaped Cincinnati and now finds him south down south in Tampa. It's apparent that he'll be their guy in passing-down situations this season, and will be the running back from Tampa I'll be targeting most tomorrow night. While his role is limited, his role seems to be the only one that's safe. With Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette splitting touches, my share of them will be minimal.
Zeke looks to bounce back after a poor year last season, but I don't think he'll be taking off tomorrow night. Tampa had a rush DVOA of -31.4% last year, creating a tough matchup for Zeke. My shares will be minimal, but I will have some.
DFS Wide Receivers
Lamb comes into his second year with high expectations, and I think he's in a decent matchup to do so tomorrow. I have him listed as Dallas's #2 WR, who the Bucs had a DVOA of 5.9%. With his target share due to increase, and productivity to increase with Dak back, CeeDee isn't a bad option to pair with Dak in lineups.
Godwin has the best matchup of the night in my book, as Dallas's DVOA against #2 WRs (I assume Mike Evans is #1 WR) was absolutely horrible last year at 38.8%. In a Brady-led offense, it's hard to guess where the ball will go, but Godwin did lead the Bucs in both snaps and targets last season. I love his upside in this one.
Other WRs: Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup
DFS Tight Ends
I'm higher on Gronk than a lot of folks this season. Sure, he's another year older, but now he has his feet under him after last season and another ring on his finger. He played about 75% of snaps last year, and I expect that number to go up. He draws a solid matchup against Dallas, who had a 21.8% DVOA against TE's last season.
DFS Defense/Special Teams
I'm writing this still unsure whether Zuerlein will play tomorrow night, but if he does, he'll surely be in play. In any situation, Zuerlein will have a high chance of being optimal. In my opinion, the game script goes one of two ways: we either get a shootout where both kickers are racking up points kicking extra points and short field goals, or Dallas gets starched and will be kicking long field goals early to scratch and claw back and then grab some TDs late, leading to some extra points. I'm high on
Tampa D/ST
I won't play the Bucs D in "cash-games" or single-entries, but I'll most definitely have some shares. Tampa Bay had an adjusted sack rate of 7.9% last season and should get some solid pressure against Dallas's O-line that is now missing Zack Martin. As mentioned when talking "Legatron", I anticipate the game script going one of two ways, one of them being Dallas getting starched. High pressure, sacks, and mix in a turnover or two, and we could be looking at a Bucs D/ST captain takedown. More likely than not, though, is some sorry sucker will think they have a takedown on the horizon, which will be ruined by Dallas in garbage time.
Happy Football Season, Everyone!
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