RADIO
I have been looking at data from the 2020 season since the Super Bowl finished. I have been looking at projections for the 2021 season for the past few weeks. I have been writing fantasy football columns from different perspectives for the upcoming year for quite some time now. Do you know one thing I haven't done? I haven't tried to condense my thoughts on the longer-than-ever 2021 NFL season, team by team, in a single sentence. Now that's challenging.
We are accustomed to talking about players rising and falling in the ADP leaderboards, about specific positions and their boom/bust candidates, about sleepers in different places, etc. But it feels like we never look at the bigger picture at once.
Up next, you'll find a list of the 16 AFC teams and their outlook for the 2021 season in just a handful of words. With such small descriptions, it is possible that you have another view of things. I hope I can hit the nail on the head on the majority of lines, though!
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AFC East
Buffalo Bills: The Bills are loaded, that's for sure. If Josh Allen is not your QB1 once more even in regression, it'll be goddam close. Stefon Diggs is a known asset, but fantasy GMs are still sleeping on a mighty receiver in Cole Beasley, so take advantage of that drafting flaw before they realize it. Not the best backfield because of the timeshare, but Singletary's pass-catching prowess looks good enough for a late-round flier and TE Dawson Knox is one of very few go-to TEs getting absolutely undervalued.
Miami Dolphins: It's Tua Time--only now for good and for a full 17-game span. That's great and a top-12 finish out there for him, but the juice of this squad for those in fantasy leagues will undoubtedly come from additions Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. Yes, you read that right. No Parker, no Gaskin, it's all about our deep-threat monsters in this offense.
New England Patriots: If you are going to draft a Pat, make sure it is nobody. Seriously, this team offers no fantasy upside at all outside of the classic James White cheap-ass play, maybe Mac Jones' WW-addition at some point throughout the season, and Nelson Agholor having some out-of-left-field outing here and there. No, no Hunter Henry and/or Jonnu Smith in my squads. And that should be the case in yours too.
New York Jets: Quite a restart in New York with Gang Green hitting the reset button and starting entirely from scratch. Sadly, that means no Jet is worth spending more than a 10th rounder on, not even rookie QB Zach Wilson, expected WR1 Corey Davis, nor rookie RB Michael Carter. An afterthought of a squad for those of you wanting to win some fantasy contests and leagues this season.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Bounceback season for Lamar, this one. Not that he was bad last year, but he dropped from QB1 to QB10 in 2020 and enters 2021 with a slightly improved receiving corps to feed. Other than Jackson and his massive upside, I'm not really ecstatic with any other player's fantasy viability, not even Mark Andrews. Let alone drafting any of the two RBs in J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, who will spend the season killing each other's value.
Cincinnati Bengals: Mess of a receiving trio with all Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and rookie Ja'Marr Chase expected to get 100+ targets. The price seems to be right for all of them except for the rookie (what the hell), so you can get a couple of discounted WR2s in them. Burrow got sidelined to close 2020, so I'm not at ease trusting his health. Nothing to say about Joe Mixon, who keeps being one of the most disrespected league-winning players out there; sorry if that's not what you wanted to read about him.
Cleveland Browns: Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are very capable rushers and targets on their own and can put up RB1 numbers. Other than that, I'm afraid there is not a lot to like in Cleveland these days. Baker Mayfield is a low-end QB1 at most and everything has to go his way, Jarvis Landry is (as always) slept on and boasts sky-high ROI projections, Odell Beckham Jr. will miss time because that's what he's been great at in three of the past four seasons, and that's it for the Dawgs.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Go draft Najee Harris and then come back to read this. Alright, now that you secured the only big-eater in Pittsburgh, we can talk in a more relaxed way. Am I saying JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool are bad players? No, not really. Am I scared to death of having to overpay and eat a bunch of duds throughout the campaign if I get them? You bet. I'm just not about to pony up any sixth-round pick for any of those wideouts, and that I know for sure.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Shout-outs to my Broncos fans out there still waking up each day feeling like Aaron Rodgers will arrive during the next few hours. You the real MVPs of faith. Fadable quarterbacks, fadable receivers, and fadable rushers. Maybe that's a little bit harsh, I know, but Denver is only offering middle-of-the-pack/low-upside guys this season with either huge boom/bust profiles or safe-not-great value. Don't try to build a league-winning squad around these guys as we don't live in a world where miracles happened yet.
Kansas City Chiefs: As ridiculous as it sounds, all of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are getting off draft boards with ADPs of 1 at their respective position. And you will do no wrong getting any of them even at that top price. But everybody can eat any week in this booming offense, so take some last-round fliers on the likes of Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman if they're still around.
Las Vegas Raiders: I keep liking my annual Derek Carr draft selection while punting the QB position early. Other than that, Darren Waller is the lone fantasy-viable play on the squad. Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake will take shots at each other all year long in that shared backfield, the receivers have low upside at best, and the only thing I'd do is to add a couple of Raiders--John Brown and Hunter Renfrow--through the WW at some point if anything.
Los Angeles Chargers: I screwed up last season when I didn't trust Justin Herbert, only for a doc to send expected-QB1 Tyrod Taylor home after a silly mistake early in the season, making way for Herbert to thrive above all expectations. Give me every single Herbert share this season, folks. Also, target Austin Ekeler as your RB1 and an overall top-10 player next season (excluding quarterbacks) and throw a dart toward Mike Williams around the 12th round because he's too cheap for the value he can return playing in this offense.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Fade. Straight. Someone is going to draft Deshaun Watson because reasons, but don't fall for that. If you're absolutely in the need of warm bodies, the three-headed monster of a backfield Houston has for the 2021 season should at least score some fantasy points and return some value throughout the year--at WW price only, mind you--with Brandin Cooks the only other viable fantasy player at a barely-palatable 200+ PPR projection. Ugh.
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are going from a washed-up Philip Rivers to a virtually-retired Carson Wentz. Nah, that's a joke because Wentz is only 29 years old, but look at his numbers and you'll see where I come from. Indy will field a very tasty player in Jonathan Taylor... that is definitely not worth his current overall ADP of 9.5 (!!!). I see no ROI there, not even the smallest amount. I'd rather throw a dart toward a bouncing-back T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, and/or Mo Alie-Cox rather than paying that much for a sophomore-wall-hitting RB.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Don't draft Trevor Lawrence. The hype is right, and T-Law will be a top-18 QB more often than not for at least 15 years. That's cool and all, but it will take time and the stupidly bad Jax offense won't help him this soon. Every Jaguar is getting overvalued at this point except Marvin Jones, which is rather weird in and of itself. Other than late-round must-draft Jones, the rest of the Jaguars--yes, that include RBs James Robinson and Travis Etienne--look too risky to pay for.
Tennessee Titans: Bonkers that Ryan Tannehill is getting two of the tastiest receivers in the NFL to throw the ball too, which should definitely help him in reaching QB1 levels one more time. Who would have said just a couple of years ago... listen to the mermaids. Don't be scared. Draft the hell out of Derrick Henry/A.J. Brown/Julio Jones without a single doubt inside your brain. This offense is loaded and the projections will be reached with ease. Under-the-radar Super Bowl contender right here full of league-winning fantasy players.
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