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As the weather is heating up, so are the ‘hot takes” in the fantasy football community. The anticipation for the new season is already high, and some of the best analysts and players with interesting perspectives are taking enthusiastic stands on some of their favorite targeted picks for the 2021 season.
At RotoBaller, we have a very interesting trio of ‘hot takers” that are must-follows. Kev Maserejian, Frank Ammirante and Adam Koffler serve up several of their passionate perspectives on Twitter throughout the day. They stir a lot of conversation and discussion and always give you much to think about. My co-host on RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Mike Florio, is always offering hot takes when he is not enjoying life as a newlywed (congrats Mike, I hope Austin Ekeler was a worthy best man).
Respectfully, though, I take a less aggressive approach that has always worked well for me. I prefer proven performers quite often as my anchor players, I am more skeptical on rookies, and I always stress that opportunity, volume and talent are not the only indicators of strong potential production. I am also careful not to buy into all the positive "coachspeak" coming out of camps at this time of year.
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The King Throws Some Cold Water on Early Hot Takes
There are many “hot takes” I am on board with this year, and no approach of mine is absolute. I do target upside performers, just not quite as often as some of my colleagues. I also have a good handle on when a player may be set to fall off.
But there are several ‘hot takes” that I just do not agree with from many people I hold in high regard. I could be wrong on some of these, sure. But here are some of the buzzworthy viewpoints I have been seeing on social media and other platforms so far this year that I do not fall in line with. I am not necessarily saying these players will be busts in some cases, but I just do not rate them as highly as some others will.
HOT TAKE: Jalen Hurts is going to break through big-time in 2021.
Engel’s Angle: It is a challenge when a less experienced QB has to be the unquestioned starter from the beginning of the season and his opponents have prepared for him all offseason. Hurts' best receiver is a rookie and the weaponry is not too impressive overall. If the Eagles cannot pass effectively on a regular basis, Hurts will be easier to defend. He does not crack my Top 10 at QB just yet.
HOT TAKE: Ryan Tannehill becomes a fantasy QB1 with the addition of Julio Jones.
Engel’s Angle: Tannehill finished as QB7 last year. He is underrated and now the Jones acquisition simply confirms his QB1 status for many who did not see him as being in that range.
HOT TAKE: Maybe the hottest of all so far this preseason, is that Jonathan Taylor is a Top 3, or even a No. 1 overall pick.
Engel’s Angle: I like Taylor myself, but this is just getting too excited about upside before a player actually shows he can play at such a superstar level over a full season. I am not awarding such elite status to a player before it is earned. We do not have any evidence that Taylor can catch passes at a McCaffrey/Kamara sort of level yet, and there is just speculation that he “could” improve as a receiver. Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack are indeed secondary figures to Taylor in the Colts backfield, but they may be factors, too.
I can see making a strong case for Cam Akers over Taylor. He has more of the workload definitely to himself, will play in a better offense, and has already displayed some real promise as a pass-catcher. I have Taylor just outside the Top 5 at RB, but Top 3 seems to be too lofty of an expectation. This is a case of getting overhyped a bit too much on upside. But I still like Taylor as a Top 10 overall pick. Akers, though, has the look of a versatile second-year back with real upside and is not getting anywhere near the buzz of Taylor.
Cam Akers’ future is so bright ? @thereal_cam3 @RamsNFL pic.twitter.com/D0cQJomWsW
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) March 23, 2021
HOT TAKE: Austin Ekeler can be a Top 5 RB this year, maybe even better.
Engel’s Angles: I think fifth overall or so is his ceiling. Some are assuming or hoping that he can become more of a goal line presence and his workload as a runner will increase. That is just hopeful speculation, though, and we have not seen Ekeler show us that is capable of becoming some sort of Kamara-like RB as a runner. He has never rushed for more than three TDs in a season, and don’t be surprised if Joshua Kelley or Larry Rountree III get chances to show that they are capable of sharing some carries, and both profile as having short-yardage potential.
HOT TAKE: Ezekiel Elliott is a candidate for decline.
Engel’s Angles: Elliott is still just 25 years old going on 26, and he rushed for 1,357 yards and 12 TDs just two years ago. Last year’s production was obviously a product of Dak Prescott’s absence. I saw nothing glaring as a pure player that leads me to believe that Elliott cannot bounce back with a healthy Prescott back. If you want to pass on Elliott in the first round, I will gladly take him. There will be a lot of opportunities to finish drives with TD runs.
HOT TAKE: Najee Harris is a first-round pick.
Engel’s Angles: You always have to temper expectations for rookies. Sure, Harris is in line for a lot of volume, etc. But there will likely be an adjustment period to the pro game and we had cautionary tales of rookies such as Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Miles Sanders and David Montgomery all being taken too early in recent seasons based more on projected opportunity and talent alone. I like Harris myself, but I am not going to take him in the first round just yet, as rookies can start more slowly than expected and frustrate you early in the season. I see him as more of a Top 15 RB to start out.
HOT TAKE: J.K. Dobbins is a RB1
Engel’s Angles: Another case of some looking at pure talent, and what some may want to happen based on that talent. Dobbins can score from anywhere on the field and should be even more of a quality fantasy producer in Year Two. There is talk of him getting more involved in the passing game. But Gus Edwards will also be in the picture to share some carries and goal-line work, and Lamar Jackson will be, too. To me, Dobbins has upside for sure, but he is more Top 15 than Top 10.
HOT TAKE: D’Andre Swift will thrive on volume and is headed for a big year
Engel’s Angles: I am lower on Swift than most. He is not in my Top 15 at RB. The whole fantasy community sees Swift being the clear focal point of the Lions offense because the projected playmakers around him on offense are so lacking. If we see him that way, so will opposing defensive coordinators and players. Swift will get a ton of defensive attention every week and that will hold him back. When the Lions are playing from behind, throwing him swing passes and flat passes won’t be the way to catch up from large deficits. Goal-line chances, in what could turn out to be the worst offense in he NFC, may also not be regularly easy to come by.
HOT TAKE: Michael Thomas will disappoint again without Drew Brees.
Engel’s Angle: No matter who plays QB, Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill will know they must get the ball to Thomas. In two December starts playing with Hill last year, Thomas caught 17 balls for 189 yards. At worst, Thomas will still be a Top 10 Fantasy wide receiver.
HOT TAKES: Julio Jones is 32 years old and an injury risk. He is also a Hall of Fame WR.
Engel’s Angles: Both of these statements are true, as we combined two hot takes here. As Michael Salfino of the Athletic has often pointed out, bigger WRs break down earlier in their careers. But as Mike Tagliere of Fantasy Pros has shown us in his annual studies, 32 is not quite the end of the line for a Top WR. Jones is not as fast as he used to be, as some NFL insiders have pointed out, but he is still a big and dangerous playmaker when he is available. My perspective is that Jones is no longer a top-flight Fantasy WR because of health concerns, but when he plays, he will still be very productive. So I see him as a Top 30 WR this season. If you look at his 2020 outings when he played, it was apparent he was not quite close to being done.
Highest graded offensive player for the #Falcons last night:
WR Julio Jones - 87.3 overall grade
-10 targets, 7 receptions (all for first downs)
-137 yards, 1 drop
-112.5 passer rating when targeted pic.twitter.com/CyRikWkEDN— PFF ATL Falcons (@PFF_Falcons) October 30, 2020
HOT TAKE: DeVonta Smith will be an instant star.
Engel’s Angle: Smith obviously has the most upside of any pass-catcher on the Eagles roster. But operating as an instant prime target is a lot to ask for any rookie, and opposing defenses will be very wary of Smith as he adjusts to the pro game. Temper your initial expectations even though I do expect occasional glimpses of explosiveness as Smith progresses.
HOT TAKE: Mike Williams is finally going to break out
Engel’s Angles: I will not say I won’t draft Williams, but I am also skeptical on him to a significant degree, He has trouble staying healthy and has never caught 50 passes in a season. Yes, he has averaged 16.7 yards per catch and can be a significant TD threat. But I have yet to see anything from Williams that suggests he can be frequently reliable as a pass-catcher and in terms of availability health wise. I’d like to see better than a 27.3 contested catch rate from a big wideout, and his true catch rate was not in the Top 50 of the league last year, according to playerprofiler.com.
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