RADIO
What's up, RotoBallers! I'm John, aka 'LucidMedia," with your MLB betting picks on this Monday, May 31st. We've got a nice matinee slate on this Memorial Day, and some night games to cap off our long weekend. This is my debut article for RotoBaller, and I couldn't be more excited to start providing some picks for you all.
I will be doing these picks for you every Monday and Wednesday going forward this baseball season. Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel Sportsbook, and that's where the odds below will be coming from. I know not everyone is able to bet on Fanduel, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly! The RotoBaller team has had a great Memorial Day Weekend on the books so far, so let's finish it out strong and make some money!
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Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL +144
MIN: Jose Berrios | BAL: Jorge Lopez
We don't have to look far on this slate to find a nice play today. The Twins will be opening up their series in Baltimore, backed by their Ace, Jose Berrios on the mound. The Orioles will look to get their 18th win on the season with Jorge Lopez on the mound. Both of these teams have gotten out of the gates slow this season, and while we expected it from Baltimore, Minnesota has been a disappointing surprise thus far. The Twins have, however, warmed up a little bit and I see them in the process of turning the corner despite the multitude of injuries plaguing their roster.
Berrios has done well this year, pitching to a 5-2 record and a 3.67 ERA. He's seen a proper boost in K% and xFIP, with those numbers bumping to 27.5% and 3.24, respectively. On the other side, Jorge Lopez's career struggles have continued. He's sporting a 1-6 record with a 5.80 ERA. His xFIP has shown that he's due for some positive regression (4.16 xFIP), but I don't see that positive regression taking place today at Camden.
If you like to look at trends, there are other indicators to back Minny here. The Twins are 9-0 in series openers when they don't have a day off in between, are -140 or better, and are facing a team that has a four-or-greater game losing streak. Minnesota is also 3-0 in Berrios's last three starts and 4-1 in his last five starts. Baltimore is just the opposite, going 0-3 in Jorge Lopez's last three starts, and 1-4 in his last five starts. Back the Twinnies.
Pick: Moneyline - Minnesota (-172), FanDuel Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: NYY -132
TB: Rich Hill | NYY: Jameson Taillon
It isn't often that you get a team that has won nine of their last ten games and fourteen of their last fifteen as the underdogs in a matchup, but knowing Vegas and "retail bettors", we know they love them some New York Yankees. You won't see me complaining though, as the value shown on the Rays today is one that we can take advantage of.
Rich Hill will be taking a 3-2 record and 3.63 ERA onto the mound today, going up against a Yankees team that just got swept by one of the worst teams in baseball over the weekend. Not only that, but the Yanks struggled to mount any sort of offense against Detroit's young lefty Tarik Skubal yesterday afternoon. This doesn't trend well for New York, as Hill has thrown four straight quality starts, including one against New York where he went 6.2 scoreless on May 13.
The Yankees will be running out Jameson Taillon to start his tenth game this season. While his 5.06 ERA isn't a great indicator of how he's pitched this season, I don't expect him to show any positive regression here either. Taillon hasn't gone six innings but once this season and the Yanks had to use up their 'pen quite a bit over the weekend.
Simply enough, the wrong team is favored here. I'm fully expecting the red-hot Rays to continue their winning ways, so I will be backing them this afternoon.
Pick: Moneyline - Tampa Bay (+110), FanDuel Sportsbook
Los Angeles Angels at San Franciso Giants
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SFG -156
LAA: Dylan Bundy | SFG: Johnny Cueto
This one is probably the most "no brainer" wager I'll be taking today. As soon as I saw the odds I knew that we had some value here.
The Angels are struggling, being able to mount little to no offense whatsoever. Mike Trout is on the injured list, Anthony Rendon isn't seeing the ball well at the plate, and outside of guys like Jared Walsh and Shohei Ohtani, the rest of LA's lineup simply isn't very good. It wouldn't be far-fetched to believe that Ohtani won't play today either, as they'll be in an NL park and he won't be able to DH.
As far as the pitching matchup, the Giants will be running out Johnny Cueto. The fourteen-year vet (and also one of my personal favorites to watch on the mound), has had an excellent resurgence this year, pitching to a 3-1 record with a 3.86 ERA and 3.54 xFIP. On the other side, Dylan Bundy has regressed from his fantastic 2020 shortened-season, pitching to an 0-5 record with a 6.50 ERA and a 4.56 xFIP.
Don't overthink this one, back the home side.
Pick: Moneyline - San Francisco Giants (-156) FanDuel Sportsbook
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