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Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 Chicago Bears' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
Outside of Chuck Pagano retiring, the Chicago Bears will be bringing back many of their key coaching staff members from the 2020 season. Matt Nagy will return as the Bears head coach and Bill Lazor will be back as the team's offensive coordinator. Sean Desai will be the new defensive coordinator, replacing Chuck Pagano.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Bears players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Bears coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Bears' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Bears' fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at one of the key members of the Chicago Bears' previous coaching staff: Chuck Pagano. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new regime is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Defensive Coordinator: Chuck Pagano
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Bears | 16 | 18.63 | 222.13 | 102 | 63.56 | 5.10 | 1.19 |
| 2020 Bears | 16 | 23.13 | 231.56 | 113.38 | 63.75 | 5.41 | 1.13 |
| Pagano's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 144* | 22.43 | 234.91 | 116.31 | 63.81 | 5.50 | 1.34 |
*In 2012, Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with cancer after a 1-2 start. Bruce Arians took over head coaching duties for the next 12 games, going 9-3. These 12 games that Arians led the team are included in the career averages section of the table above.
2021 Offense
2021 Head Coach: Matt Nagy
Matt Nagy has been the Chicago Bears head coach since 2018. Prior to joining the Bears, he worked for the Kansas City Chiefs as a quarterbacks coach (2013-2016) and as an offensive coordinator (2017). Given his offensive background, let's dive into some offensive statistics from Nagy's experiences in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role to get a better understanding of how the Bears may utilize their offensive players in 2021.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Bears | 16 | 36.25 | 223.31 | 1.25 | 3.38 | 12.44 | 0 |
| 2020 Bears | 16 | 38.38 | 245.31 | 1.63 | 3.06 | 12.25 | 0.06 |
| Nagy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 64 | 35.14 | 243.30 | 1.56 | 3.94 | 18.5 | 0.13 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Bears | 16 | 19.94 | 70.94 | 0.13 | 6.94 | 9.19 | 41.44 | 0.25 |
| 2020 Bears | 16 | 16.88 | 73.63 | 0.13 | 4.38 | 5.5 | 34.5 | 0.19 |
| Nagy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 64 | 19.66 | 80.47 | 0.58 | 5.70 | 7.34 | 43.88 | 0.28 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Bears | 16 | 13.19 | 22.5 | 161.31 | 0.94 |
| 2020 Bears | 16 | 15.38 | 23.25 | 164.06 | 0.81 |
| Nagy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 64 | 12.48 | 19.58 | 149.95 | 0.84 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Bears | 16 | 2.38 | 3.69 | 20.56 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Bears | 16 | 5.31 | 8.38 | 46.5 | 0.63 |
| Nagy's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 64 | 4.61 | 7.11 | 48.42 | 0.42 |
Matt Nagy Takeaways & Expectations
Over the course of Matt Nagy's 64 game career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, his offenses have averaged 35.14 passing attempts per game. In his past two years with the Bears, the usage has been a little higher than that, with the Bears attempting 36.25 passes per game in 2019 and 38.38 passes per game in 2020. This passing usage means that the Bears starting quarterback will have a fair number of opportunities to put up passing numbers, but nothing out of the ordinary.
But besides passing, it is also important to look at the rushing usage of Nagy's quarterbacks over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach. Over the course of his career, Nagy's quarterbacks have averaged 3.94 carries per game.
Overall, Matt Nagy's offense has typically been around the league average in passing attempts per game and quarterback rushing attempts per game, which means he's not going to hinder or elevate his quarterback's fantasy value. If you are taking Justin Fields or Andy Dalton in your fantasy league, you are doing so only because you believe in their talent - not because it is a premier situation.
Looking at the running back position, Matt Nagy has been a mixed bag in utilizing the group. Over the course of his career, his running back room has averaged 19.66 carries and 0.58 rushing touchdowns per game on the ground - both of which are below the league average.
This usage is a little worrisome for fantasy players rostering David Montgomery or Tarik Cohen since Nagy is pretty consistently below-average in providing work on the ground to his tailbacks. But besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that Nagy has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed over the course of his career.
Looking at the graph above, Matt Nagy has been one of the best in the business at feeding his lead back on the ground. As long as Nagy continues to roll with his bell-cow approach over a running back by committee approach, David Montgomery should have a solid ceiling in your fantasy football leagues.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Matt Nagy's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, Nagy's running back room has averaged 7.34 targets per game - which is slightly above the league average.
Looking at the graph above, the 2020 Bears running backs saw the lowest number of targets per game of any Matt Nagy running back room to date. That will not be the case again in 2021 with Tarik Cohen back in the fold. Overall, Matt Nagy provides his entire running back room with less work than the average play-caller, but will heavily feature his lead back. This bodes well for David Montgomery and suggests that he could have another strong year in 2021.
Jumping to the wide receiver position, Nagy's offense has provided his wide receivers with 19.58 targets per game over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role.
This career average is right around the league averages for the past couple of years. But looking at the graph above, it is very encouraging to see that Nagy has increased the number of targets going to his wide receivers in every year he's been a play-caller. This makes Allen Robinson II a very safe draft target once again and Darnell Mooney may have some upside as well if the wide receiver usage is around the 2019 and 2020 levels.
Finally, Nagy's historical usage of tight ends has been pretty solid. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Matt Nagy's tight end room has averaged 7.11 targets per game.
The career average is pretty solid, but what's interesting is how up-and-down Nagy's tight end usage has been season to season. In 2017 and 2020, Matt Nagy's tight end room saw more than eight targets per game. But in 2018 and 2019, they were barely utilized at all, with the group seeing under six targets per game. With a pair of solid tight ends in Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham in the fold, we should expect the usage to be similar to the 2020 levels and Cole Kmet could find himself finishing as a TE1 if he hits his ceiling.
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Bill Lazor
Bill Lazor has bounced around the league as an offensive coordinator, spending time with the Miami Dolphins (2014-2015) and Cincinnati Bengals (2017-2018) before becoming the Chicago Bears offensive coordinator in 2020. Given his background, let's take a look at how some of Lazor's offenses have performed during his time as an offensive coordinator.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2018 Bengals | 16 | 33.88 | 223.06 | 1.69 | 2.56 | 14.31 | 0.13 |
| 2020 Bears | 16 | 38.38 | 245.31 | 1.63 | 3.06 | 12.25 | 0.13 |
| Lazor's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 73 | 35.07 | 239.32 | 1.74 | 2.75 | 14.96 | 0.05 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2018 Bengals | 16 | 19.19 | 88.31 | 0.69 | 5.19 | 6.94 | 34.69 | 0.06 |
| 2020 Bears | 16 | 16.88 | 73.63 | 0.56 | 4.38 | 5.5 | 34.5 | 0.19 |
| Lazor's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 73 | 19.47 | 86.02 | 0.58 | 5.07 | 6.63 | 41.44 | 0.14 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2018 Bengals | 16 | 11.31 | 19.81 | 144.13 | 1.31 |
| 2020 Bears | 16 | 15.38 | 23.25 | 164.06 | 0.81 |
| Lazor's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 73 | 12.60 | 21.47 | 153.37 | 1.19 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2018 Bengals | 16 | 4.19 | 6.25 | 44.25 | 0.31 |
| 2020 Bears | 16 | 5.31 | 8.38 | 46.5 | 0.63 |
| Lazor's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 73 | 4.25 | 6.54 | 44.04 | 0.40 |
Bill Lazor Takeaways & Expectations
Besides Matt Nagy, we also need to consider Bill Lazor's offensive tendencies since he could end up being in charge of play-calling this year as well. In Bill Lazor's 73 game career as an offensive coordinator, his team's offenses have averaged 35.07 passing attempts per game - which is around the league average. This number is also nearly identical to the number of passing attempts per game that Matt Nagy's offense has historically had, so the Chicago Bears starting quarterback will see similar volume regardless of who is calling the plays. In addition, Lazor's quarterbacks have averaged a meager 2.75 carries per game over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator.
For the most part, the value of the Bears' starting quarterback would largely stay the same whether it's Matt Nagy or Bill Lazor calling the plays - with the only real potential change in quarterback value would be a slight rushing attempt increase if Nagy is the play-caller. But besides quarterback, how would any play-caller changes impact the skill positions - running back, wide receiver, and tight end?
Looking at the running back position, Lazor has been slightly below-average in providing his running backs work. Lazor's running backs have averaged 19.47 carries and 0.58 rushing touchdowns per game over the course of his 73 game career as an offensive coordinator.
This usage shows that with offensive play-calling duties in the hands of Lazor, the team would provide a lower amount of running back carries per game than the average play-caller - just like Matt Nagy. But besides the total number of running back carries, for fantasy purposes we also need to consider how much of the work on the ground Lazor is giving to one tailback versus multiple backs.
Looking at the graph above, it's clear that Bill Lazor prefers to take a bell-cow approach on the ground much like Matt Nagy does. This is great news if you are rostering David Montgomery in your fantasy football league since it means that he will get the bulk of the Bears' carries on the ground.
The last aspect we need to look at concerning Bill Lazor's running back usage is how he utilizes them through the air. In his career, Lazor has given his running backs an average amount of work in the passing game with his tailbacks seeing 6.63 targets per game.
This is less work than Bears head coach Matt Nagy has traditionally provided his running backs through the air and means that if you have the Bears' primary pass-catching back in your fantasy league, you are probably rooting for Matt Nagy to be the team's primary play-caller in 2021 over Bill Lazor.
Jumping to the wide receiver position, over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has provided his wide receiver room with 21.47 targets per game.
Looking at the graph above, Bill Lazor has consistently either been average or above-average in providing opportunities for his wide receivers in the passing game. This is great news if you are rostering one of the Chicago Bears wide receivers and makes them a slightly safer investment in fantasy leagues.
Lastly, looking at the tight end position, Lazor's offense has been mediocre in utilizing the position with the group averaging 6.54 targets per game.
2020 was the most targets provided to tight ends by a Bill Lazor offense to date. Looking ahead to 2021, if Lazor is the primary play-caller there could be a very slight dip in tight end targets per game, but regardless of play-caller Cole Kmet should at the very least be in the streaming mix this season.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Nick Foles, David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Damien Williams, Allen Robinson II, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller, Damiere Byrd, Marquise Goodwin, Cole Kmet, and Jimmy Graham
2021 Defense
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Sean Desai
Sean Desai will be the Chicago Bears' defensive coordinator in 2021 after Chuck Pagano retired. Desai has been the Chicago Bears, coaching staff, for a while, previously spending time as a defensive quality control coach (2013-2018) and safeties coach (2019-2020) for the team.
| Sean Desai's NFL Coaching Career | ||
| Year | Team | Role |
| 2013-2018 | Chicago Bears |
Defensive Quality Control Coach
|
| 2019-2020 | Chicago Bears | Safeties Coach |
| Present | Chicago Bears |
Defensive Coordinator
|
It's more difficult to project what kind of production we will see from the Chicago Bears defense because this is Sean Desai's first year ever serving as a defensive coordinator. But we do know a couple of things. First, the Chicago Bears defense has been in the upper half of the league the last few years, so the talent is clearly there to field a great defense. Second, Desai has spent time working under both of the last two defensive coordinators for the Chicago Bears in Chuck Pagano and Vic Fangio, so he should have a pretty good understanding of what has made the defense successful in recent years. There is some uncertainty with the Chicago Bears D/ST under Sean Desai. But from a fantasy perspective, for now, we should project that they are slightly above-average once again based on the talent in Chicago and Desai's background of working under some great defensive minds.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Chris Tabor - Chris Tabor has been the Chicago Bears special teams coordinator since 2018. He's been coaching since 1993 and also previously served as the Cleveland Browns special teams coordinator from 2011 to 2017.
QB Coach: John DeFilippo - John DeFilippo has been the Chicago Bears quarterbacks coach since 2020. He's been coaching since 2000 and has previously served as a quarterbacks coach at the NFL level for the Oakland Raiders (2007-2008, 2012-2014) and Philadelphia Eagles (2016-2017). DeFilippo has also been an offensive coordinator at the NFL level for the Cleveland Browns (2015), Minnesota Vikings (2018), and Jacksonville Jaguars (2019). Besides his role as the Bears quarterbacks coach, DeFilippo will also serve as the Chicago Bears passing game coordinator in 2021.
RB Coach: Michael Pitre - 2021 will be Michael Pitre's first full season as an NFL coach. He's spent the last three seasons as the running backs coach at Oregon State.
WR Coach: Mike Furrey - Mike Furrey has been the Chicago Bears wide receivers coach since 2018. He played wide receiver and safety at the NFL level for the St. Louis Rams (2003-2005), Detroit Lions (2006-2008), and Cleveland Browns (2009).
TE Coach: Clancy Barone - Clancy Barone has been the Chicago Bears tight ends coach since 2020. Barone has been coaching since 1987 and has previously spent time in the NFL as a tight ends coach for the Atlanta Falcons (2005-2006), San Diego Chargers (2007-2008), Denver Broncos (2009, 2011-2014), and Minnesota Vikings (2017).
OL Coach: Juan Castillo - Juan Castillo has been the Chicago Bears offensive line coach since 2020. He's been coaching since 1982 and previously spent time in the NFL coaching offensive lines for the Philadelphia Eagles (1998-2010), Baltimore Ravens (2014-2016), and Buffalo Bills (2017-2018).
DL Coach: Chris Rumph - 2021 will be Chris Rumph's first year as the Chicago Bears defensive line coach. Rumph previously coached that the high school and college levels in a variety of positions from 1997 to 2019, and spent the 2020 season in the NFL as the Houston Texans outside linebackers coach.
ILB Coach: Bill McGovern - Bill McGovern is new to the Chicago Bears coaching staff in 2021. He's been coaching since 1985 and has previously spent time in the NFL as an outside linebackers coach for the Philadelphia Eagles (2013-2015), a linebackers coach for the New York Giants (2016-2018), and as an inside linebackers coach for the New York Giants (2019).
OLB Coach: Bill Shuey - Bill Shuey has been with the Chicago Bears in a variety of roles since 2018, but 2021 will mark his first year as the team's outside linebackers coach. He's previously spent time coaching for the Philadelphia Eagles (2001-2010) in a variety of roles, most notably as a linebackers coach from 2008 to 2010.
Secondary Coach: Deshea Townsend - Deshea Townsend has been the Chicago Bears secondary coach since 2019. He's been coaching since 2011, with previous notable stops as the defensive backs coach of the Tennessee Titans (2016-2017) and as the assistant defensive backs coach of the New York Giants (2018). Deshea also played cornerback in the NFL for the Pittsburgh Steelers (1998-2009) and Indianapolis Colts (2010).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos
AFC East: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills
NFC South: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons
NFC North: Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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