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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Monday, May 24rd, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
The first weekend of NBA playoffs didn't disappoint and featured eight of some of the best games we've seen all season. Only one team scored over 120 points with three falling beneath the 100-point mark in Game 1. Defensive effort has picked up across every roster and players who proved themselves this season are still carrying their momentum into the postseason, i.e. Dillon Brooks' 31-points versus Utah and the young Phoenix Suns beating the Lakers.
Momentum works both ways and unfortunately, for teams like the Nuggets, their momentum slowed significantly since their peak during the regular season, and playing a high-energy team like the Trail Blazers is going to require at the very least somewhat decent shooting nightly. If Denver makes a few more shots it's a different story, but that's asking a lot and Portland didn't exactly look like a team willing to back down from a shooting contest. Even Robert Covington looked comfortable pulling from deep and that's not a good sign for the Nuggets since Carmelo Anthony hit the ground running in the first game of the series.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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MIA @ MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) MORE 28.5 Points - Jimmy Butler (MIA) MORE 21.5 Points
Giannis Antetokounmpo repeats but hits one three and, technically, that's crushing the over, right? The Miami Heat defense will pack the paint and force him to shoot those awkward three-pointers and live with the results, that just leaves us in a weird situation. Will Giannis have a better shooting night in Game 2? Throughout the second half and overtime, Antetokounmpo's only makes were at the rim. He's going to continue to get free based on size alone, but the Heat play physically enough that eventually he is going to have to make shots. After not hitting a single jumpshot in the last 29-minutes of Game 1, look for him to try to find that rhythm early in the first half.
Jimmy Butler is in a similar situation, except he is a way better shooter and had an off night. He started 1-10 to start the first half and even though the Heat were able to catch up, Butler's off night bled into overtime and he couldn't convert any of his attempts into points. There are few people that play with Butler's effort and have his ability, so while analyzing the shot chart and game stats are nice, anyone who knows anything about Butler knows that he won't let one bad game change anything. There are few, if any, players that are more likely to make a statement in Game 2 than Jimmy Butler.
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POR @ DEN
Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 29.5 Points - Damian Lillard (POR) MORE 29.5 Points
Simply put, the Denver Nuggets supporting cast needs to be better at shooting the ball. Nikola Jokic only totaled one assist and it wasn't like he played like a completely different player in Game 1. He tried to find teammates, they just weren't able to do anything with it whether it was hesitating or just outright missing. Jokic doesn't exactly have a full deck at his disposal, so he does have to take it upon himself to take and make tough shots, but 34-points from your big man against a former teammates is pretty good. Michael Porter Jr. won't go 1-10 from three-point territory again, but that still won't be enough if the rest of the Nuggets keep scoring when it doesn't matter.
Portland is not the team you want to let catch fire early because of the amount of weapons they have. Nearly every player is capable of contributing their own brand of offense and making sure they are where they need to be. Norman Powell can't be left alone, Robert Covington will make three's if you let him, Anfernee Simons proves every game that he can make shots alongside Damian Lillard, and that's not even bringing up playoff Carmelo Anthony. Anthony could flop the rest of the playoffs and his first game was so declarative that Nuggets fans are already dreading seeing that first shot go down, whenever it may be. Lillard is lined up for another big game, but it is concerning that this game has already gotten out of hand once and was the only game that ended up as somewhat of a blowout.
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