Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - Valspar Championship

Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2021 Valspar Championship. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

Hello PGA DFS family! After a brief break for the Zurich Classic team event, it is great to be back with a fresh HFTC! The duo of Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman triumphed at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans. The power of the mullet is very, very real!!!

Now that the light-hearted Zurich is over, we're set to kick off a serious stretch of golf. This week's Valspar Championship takes us into a May golf calendar that includes the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow, the long-running AT&T Byron Nelson, and the PGA Championship that's set to be held on a dazzling Kiawah Island Ocean Course. The month ahead will feature the world's top players on some of the country's best golf courses. I can't wait to dig in!

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

Valspar Championship Overview

This will be the year's last tournament in the state of Florida. The Valspar Championship's movement to this spot on the calendar - as well as the recent announcement that the Honda Classic will be reshuffled - is proof that the Tour is still trying to crack the code on exactly how to handle all of the Florida-based events and their placement on the schedule.

Luckily, the shuffle seems to have worked out in the Valspar's favor this year. It's somewhat surprising, as you have to imagine many of the world's top players aren't extremely eager to tackle this difficult layout at Innisbrook Resort if they don't have to, but with the PGA Championship looming on the horizon, several of the world's top golfers will tee it up this week in an attempt to keep their games sharp for the challenges that lie ahead.

After a year away due to COVID-19, two-time champion Paul Casey will attempt to win for the third consecutive time on the Copperhead Course. It won't be an easy task, as he'll be challenged by some very talented players this week. Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, and Viktor Hovland lead a stout group of challengers that will try to loosen Casey's stranglehold on this event. Lots of course history to evaluate this week and it's gonna be a fun slate for PGA DFS, so let's get to work!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

The Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Par 71 - 7,340 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Designed By: Larry Packard

Located in Palm Harbor, Florida, the Copperhead course at Innisbrook Resort is the type of course that could hold a PGA Championship next week and no one would raise an eyebrow. It is a quality golf course and one that routinely ranks as one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour schedule. It's many undulations are unique for a Florida course. Players in this field will face tight, tree-lined fairways, tough doglegs, and greens that are hard to hit. They must also tackle 'The Snake Pit'...the Copperhead's daunting closing three-hole stretch. This is a less-than-driver course for the bombers, but there are four Par-5's for them to gun at. Interestingly, there are FIVE Par-3's on this layout, which almost forces us to look at something we rarely give much weight to in this article; Par-3 Scoring. As usual, ball striking is a trait we want to target and the facet of the game I'm giving the most weight to this week. A players' short game and ability to scramble will also be tested this week.

For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!

Recent Champions

• 2020: Canceled Due To COVID-19
• 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
• 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
• 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
• 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)

The Horse

Jason Kokrak

Notable Course History: T2(2019), T8 ('18), T7 ('15)
DraftKings Price: $8,700 FanDuel Price: $10,600

The perception of Jason Kokrak is that he’s more of a “secondary” DFS option, rather than a “main priority” type of guy. I’m shrugging that off and putting him at the top of the list this week for the Valspar.

Kokrak hasn’t won at the Copperhead Course, but has nonetheless been borderline dominant in previous trips to this tough layout. He’s gone T2-T8 over his last two Valspar starts and also logged a T7 back in 2015. All told, he’s gained 23.11 strokes total over his last five appearances in this event; the sixth-most among players teeing it up this week. 

In addition to the very strong course history, Kokrak heads to Palm Harbor in sparkling form. Prior to a T49 at the Masters, he’d ran off three straight top-10 finishes against elite fields in the state of Florida (WGC-Workday, API, PLAYERS). Over the last 12 measured rounds the 35-year-old grades out second in this Valspar field in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and fourth in SG: Ball Striking, while ranking inside the top-30 in all major strokes gained categories.

The Ponies

Paul Casey

Notable Course History: Win ('19), Win ('18)
DraftKings Price: $10,000 FanDuel Price: $11,400

It’s tough to have a course history article and not touch on the player that’s won the last two editions of the Valspar. One of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour for years, the knock on Paul Casey has always been his inability to actually win tournaments in the United States, but the Englishman has certainly found the winning formula at the Copperhead Course, emerging with victories in both the 2018 and 2019 editions of the Valspar. 

Casey returns to Palm Harbor in the type of form that makes a three-peat seem within the realm of possibility. If we throw out a missed cut at the RBC Heritage - on a Harbour Town golf course where he’s never played well - the veteran has played near-flawless golf in 2021. 

He kicked off the year with an international victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and carried that form with him to America. Prior to a T26 at the Masters, Casey had posted two top-10s and two top-fives in his four 2021 PGA Tour starts. Before the missed cut at the Heritage, he’d gained strokes T2G in his last seven U.S. starts, and he grades out 15th in this week’s field in SG: T2G over the last 12 rounds.

Corey Conners

Notable Course History: T16 ('18)
DraftKings Price: $9,600 FanDuel Price: $11,300

One career start in an event isn't usually enough to qualify for this article, but I'm making an exception for Corey Conners this week, as I believe course fit should also play a role when evaluating "course horses". The Canadian's game appears tailor made for the Copperhead Course, as the layout demands excellent ball striking from tee to green. Conners certainly fits that bill. He stands first in this week's Valspar field in both SG: T2G & Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds, while also grading out first in GIRs Gained and third in Good Drives Gained.

Yes, he only has the one Valspar start under his belt - a T16 back in 2018 - but the youngster definitely made an impression in that outing. Conners was a PGA Tour rookie at the time and got into the field as an alternate. He then proceeded to lead the tournament after 54-holes before ultimately sliding down the leaderboard into at tie for 16th due to a bad final round. I expect this more-experienced version of Conners to be a factor for all four rounds this week, and while his DFS price tag continues to rise, it's tough to argue with his recent results...top-10s in four of his last five starts.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Joe by using promo code NICE when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

Justin Rose

Notable Course History: T5 ('18), T8 ('14), T5 ('11)
DraftKings Price: $8,800 FanDuel Price: $10,400

For years, Justin Rose was one of the most dependable DFS options in golf. However, an ill-advised equipment change at the start of 2019 was the beginning of a downhill slide for the decorated veteran. Needless to say, Rose has been outside my "circle of trust" for awhile now. However, the combination of his surprisingly-great play at the Masters and a strong record of success at the Valspar has me intrigued this week.

Rose has made the cut in nine of 10 career starts on this Copperhead layout with two top-fives and five top-25 finishes among those outings. His 70.21 career scoring average in this event is the best in the field among those with more than one career Valspar start. The Englishman always comes to play on golf courses with a major-championship level of difficulty and his experience should be a huge asset this week.

Lucas Glover

Notable Course History: T13 ('19), T18 ('17), T24 ('15)
DraftKings Price: $7,700 FanDuel Price: $9,600

Full disclosure: I rarely play Lucas Glover myself, as he always seems to burn me. That said, Glover is extremely tempting this week, as he heads to Palm Harbor with both trending form and rock-solid course history. 

Glover has made the cut in his last six starts on the PGA Tour - gaining strokes T2G in each one - with a T4 at the Valero Texas Open standing out as the highlight. He brings that form to a Copperhead layout on which he’s made the cut in seven of his last 10 appearances. Glover has logged five top-25s over that stretch on this golf course and appears primed for another solid Valspar outing.

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks