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Frank Ammirante's MLB betting picks for 4/18/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Frank Ammirante here, ready to give you some winners. I've still been cold as ice with my betting picks, so I've decided to take a new approach: emphasize run lines. This worked out with the Rockies -1.5 +205 last night. What better day to continue with this strategy!
I'm not a professional handicapper, but I believe that I have the skills to become one. I also enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I'll be using Bet365 for my picks. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while Steve Janik will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed and myself. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Sunday, April 18. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 16-18 (-1.3u)
Runline Record: 1-3 (-1.3u)
O/U Record: 6-15-1 (-10.65u)
Team Total Record: 1-6 (-6.15u)
Prop Record: 14-11 (+1.5u)
2021 Total Record: 38-53-1 (-17.9u)
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
O/U: 8 | BAL -115 TEX -105
Baltimore: John Means; Texas: Kyle Gibson
The Orioles try to complete the three-game sweep with their ace John Means on the mound. Means has posted a 2.16 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 15.4 K-BB% in 16.2 innings this season. He takes on a Rangers offense that has been shut down by Jorge Lopez (5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K) and Dean Kremer (4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K) during this series. The Rangers have also posted a 74 wRC+ (28th) against lefties this season. Means should have his way with this offense.
The Rangers will turn to Kyle Gibson, who has allowed only one run in 13 innings in his last two starts after lasting only one-third of an inning in his season debut. That three-game sample speaks to Gibson's inconsistencies as a starting pitcher. This is a pitcher who has had troubles with the longball, posting a 1.60 HR/9 last year. The Orioles are the better team with the pitching advantage today.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+155, Bet365) 1 Unit
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
O/U: 9 | TOR -115 KC -105
Toronto: Robbie Ray; Kansas City: Brady Singer
The Blue Jays will try to salvage the split in this four-game series with the Royals, turning to lefty Robbie Ray, who looked impressive this spring and turned in a decent outing against the Yankees, limiting them to two runs on three hits in five innings. Ray averaged 94.7 MPH on his four-seamer in his season debut, an increase of 0.8 MPH from his 2020 totals. He takes on a Royals offense that has posted a 94 wRC+ (21st) against lefties this season.
The Royals turn to righty Brady Singer, who has really struggled so far this season, allowing 10 runs (six earned) in 8.1 innings while walking three and striking out 11. This is an inconsistent, young pitcher who will have his hands full against a Blue Jays lineup that is flush with power, even without George Springer and Teoscar Hernandez. Cavan Biggio has a chance to return to the lineup for this game. I consider Ray to be the second-best pitcher on this Blue Jays staff and I think they can get to Singer.
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (+140, Bet365) 1 Unit
San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins
O/U: 8 | SF +100 MIA -120
San Francisco: Alex Wood; Miami: Pablo Lopez
The Marlins will try to complete the sweep with righty Pablo Lopez on the mound. This is a red-hot ball club that has now won six of their last seven games. Lopez has been much better at home throughout his career, posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 143.1 innings at home compared to a 6.41 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 99.2 innings on the road. He takes on a Giants offense that has posted an 80 wRC+ (23rd) this season.
The Giants will go with lefty Alex Wood, who is making his season debut and has pitched a combined 48.1 regular-season innings since 2018. The Marlins have posted a 141 wRC+ (3rd) against lefties this season. They are the hotter team that is playing at home with a significant pitching advantage. Take the Fish to complete the sweep against a pitcher who doesn't belong in a starting rotation anymore.
Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+168, Bet365) 1 Unit
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