RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Justin Thomas caught fire at TPC Sawgrass over the weekend, firing rounds of 64 and 68 to capture his first Players Championship title. Thomas' performance was made even more impressive when you consider that he lost 2.053 shots on the green during his final round and emphasized how special his back-to-back days of earning over 5.5 strokes tee to green was from an analytical standpoint.
As far as my DFS 'Rankings Wizard' was concerned, it was a good week for the model. We pinpointed Justin Thomas as a potential winner in my Vegas Report article and successfully mentioned Brian Harman as a longshot worth considering in this piece at his $6,900 price tag. It has been a robust run with three outright victories for me in the last five weeks, and I look forward to trying to break down this week's Honda Classic from a mathematical perspective.
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Honda Classic
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
PGA National
7,140 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda
The extent of how difficult PGA National is going to play comes down to the wind this weekend. In ideal conditions, it still rates out as one of the more complex tests on tour, finishing as a top-10 track in terms of difficulty in 11 of the past 14 seasons, but extreme weather could turn this into an absolute nightmare for the field. Early forecasts are expecting rain on Friday and Sunday, but it is worth noting that the weather can turn on a dime in Florida.
While the 'Bear Trap' holes of 15, 16 and 17 will garner most of the headlines for the level of difficulty they present, holes five, six and seven are almost equally as challenging. Twenty-six water hazards and 107 sand traps are littered throughout the venue, and golfers can begin to feel trapped by the unforgiving landmines that pop up at all turns.
The cut line has been +1 or higher in each of the past eight years, reaching a high of +6 in 2018. Strategy off the tee will come into play, and golfers will need to know the difference between when they can be aggressive and when they need to lay up. Like almost any challenging course nowadays, PGA National is a second-shot venue that rewards long iron play, and it won't hurt players if they can show the ability to ball strike, score on par-fours and avoid bogeys. One poor shot can change the entire complexion of the event, and the course is looking to extract those strokes from you with every hazard that looms.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | PGA National | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 271 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 60% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 59% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 54% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.46 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Daniel Berger leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by Sungjae Im at 13/1, Joaquin Niemann at 20/1 and Lee Westwood at 22/1
Key Stats
- Ball-Striking 20%
- Weighted Proximity 17.5%
- Weighted Par 4 17.5%
- Weighted Par 3 12.5%
- Sand Save Percentage 12.5%
- Strokes Gained Total Moderate to Severe Wind 10%
- Weighted Putting 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Sungjae Im ($11,000)
It's fantasy golf, which means anything can go wrong at a challenging course with water, but I am not sure if there is a safer play on the board than Sungjae Im. I have a feeling that most DFS users will view Im's price tag as a shocking going rate, especially when they can grab Daniel Berger for $200 cheaper, but it is Im that is my top golfer for the week. The general erraticness of this tournament, mixed with the weak nature of the field, leaves us with an opening to go stars-and-scrubs, and Im is my preferred route up top. The 18th-ranked player in the world is the defending champion at PGA National and has provided six consecutive top-32 finishes on tour.
Daniel Berger ($10,800)
Daniel Berger is an elite golfer that usually gets overlooked in DFS contests, and while that is the general case entering most events, it is not what we have on hand for the Honda Classic. Early projections have Berger as the most popular selection on DFS sites, and his outright price lists him as the favorite for the week. Berger does just about everything you would want for a venue like PGA National, and even if Im is my preferred start when making a build, the American's only real drawback comes because of ownership.
Lee Westwood ($10,600)
I want to preface the ranking I have on my model for Lee Westwood. For starters, I believe he is better than the 65th-ranked player in this field when we take into account his current form and course history, but I decided to leave his ranking where it was for the sake of transparency. I can't get myself to play the Englishman at his $10,600 price tag and wouldn't be shocked if we see him withdraw before the event occurs on Thursday. Westwood jumps to 11th in my model when I include only his most recent form, but the line has to be drawn somewhere when it comes to overreacting to recency bias. I could get more behind him as a play if he was in the $8,000 range but will have to pass as the third choice.
Joaquin Niemann ($10,400)
I like Joaquin Niemann, which goes without saying that he has a shot at the Honda Classic, but I am not as bullish as most. Niemann is a horrible Bermuda putter that ranks 112th on the surface over his past 50 rounds, and while he brings in respectable form to the week, his three straight finishes between 28th and 43rd won't have me jumping for joy to join the 25% of users that are going down his route. We might want to embrace the venue's volatility a little more than usual, and I prefer to pivot to Adam Scott, Russell Henley or Cameron Tringale if we are talking massive field GPP contests. That will allow us to save a few bucks in the process and might help to deviate away from the consensus.
Adam Scott ($10,100)
There aren't many golfers in my model taking a bigger hit than Adam Scott is because of his recent play. Scott only ranks 51st from a statistical perspective, but there are reasons to be optimistic. The Aussie grades out 13th overall from a complete breakdown of all qualifying weights and will be an outside-of-the-box pick for those looking to get cute in mass entry GPP contests. I'd be lying if I said the value was entirely there for him as the fifth choice on the board, but he is close enough to consider because of his 22nd place standings in ownership rank as of Monday night.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Russell Henley ($9,800)
Ranked first in my model from a statistical perspective, Russell Henley will be looking to overcome a recent slow run that has seen him miss two cuts and post two additional finishes of 30th or worse over his past four events. Henley's win at the course in 2014 will likely garner him an increase in ownership, but it is understandable with the way he strikes his irons. The American ranks first in strokes gained approach over the past two seasons and is also first over his last 24 rounds.
Cameron Tringale ($9,100)
We saw a handful of players post an aberrational result at the Players Championship, and I wouldn't let it detur me away from Cameron Tringale. The American has still boasted seven top-31 finishes over his previous nine events and ranks inside the top-10 compared to the field in strokes gained total in windy conditions, strokes gained approach, par-four scoring and overall bogey avoidance.
Brendan Steele ($8,700)
Arguably my favorite selection on the board, Brendan Steele has shown to be a force anytime he gets a course that favors ball striking, forced layups and proximity over 150 yards. We have seen that design result in robust finishes at the Sony and Safeway Open over the years, and he brings with him seven top-45 finishes to start his 2021 campaign. The form is there for him to make another run, and his three top-14s at PGA National since 2016 should be proof of his affinity for the layout.
Cameron Davis ($8,600)
I know most of you are probably getting sick of the weekly Cameron Davis write-ups in this article, so let's keep things simple for the Honda. Sure, I have some trepidation with his back-to-back missed cuts, but I don't think the form has been nearly as bad as the results might indicate. Davis' inability to save par around the greens would be my biggest concern, but his play usually improves when having to do so out of a bunker, which might help his case with there being 107 sand traps located throughout the property. I am willing to buy into the hype one more time and like that he has two made cuts at the property in the past - including an eighth-place finish last year.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Zach Johnson ($7,400), Matt Jones ($7,400)
I believe both make sense in cash-game builds and carry a better made cut equity than a handful of players priced around them on DraftKings. Zach Johnson also brings a little GPP potential because of his current 48th-place placement in ownership and might be someone to look out for that can carve out a top-25 result.
Ryan Moore ($7,300)
In the $7,000 range, Ryan Moore might be my favorite play on the board. I'd envision that we see his outright price drop over the next few days, and it is easy to understand why. Moore is ranked eighth in my model from a statistical perspective and has quietly turned around his season with back-to-back top-35s at the Players Championship and Pebble Beach. Moore also ranks inside the top-25 in the field both off the tee and with his irons, making him someone that will be able to handle the wind.
Matthew NeSmith ($7,300)
There is so much value to be had in this section. James Hahn ($7,300), Jhonattan Vegas ($7,300), Richy Werenski ($7,200), Maverick McNealy ($7,200) and Nick Taylor ($7,100) are a few of the names worth considering, but I do give a slight lean to Matthew NeSmith over the group listed above. Back-to-back missed cuts might draw some away from the accurate golfer that had posted three straight top-20s before his poor run, but I am not nearly as worried about his perceived dry spell, especially when we consider that his putter has been his biggest downfall in recent weeks. NeSmith is a breakeven putter on Bermuda, and any return to that level will bode well for his chances.
Jim Furyk ($6,900)
As wild as it might sound, Jim Furyk is coming in as the fourth-ranked golfer in my model for the Honda Classic. The sample size is condensed with his data since he handpicks the events he plays on tour nowadays, but it should be a ringing endorsement when it comes to his chances in Florida that he has decided to put the tournament on his schedule. Furyk has provided two straight top-26 performances at the Genesis and Pebble Beach and has a ninth-place finish on his record during the 2019 event held at PGA National.
Other Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
John Huh ($6,900), Cameron Percy ($6,900), Wesley Bryan ($6,800), Bronson Burgoon ($6,600), Scott Stallings ($6,500), Stewart Cink ($6,500), Vaughn Taylor ($6,500) and Brice Garnett ($6,300)
***Plays are not limited to those options, but they are some of the ones that popped in my model.
Win Big With RotoBaller
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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