NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/2): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 2nd including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Tuesday, March 2nd, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/2

• • New York Islanders (-145) vs. New Jersey Devils - 5.5U
  • Buffalo Sabres vs. New York Rangers (-155) - 5.5O
  • Philadelphia Flyers (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-105) - 6U
  • Detroit Red Wings vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (-180) - 5.5U
  • Ottawa Senators vs. Montreal Canadiens (-250) - 6.5U
  • Carolina Hurricanes (-125) vs. Nashville Predators - 5.5O
  • Vancouver Canucks vs. Winnipeg Jets (-139) - 6.5U
  • Tampa Bay Lightning (-165) vs. Dallas Stars - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Mark Scheifele, WPG ($7,900 DK / $8,200 FD) - Scheifele was on a bit of a hot streak over the last week and a half but he has now gone pointless in back-to-back games. Scheifele has done well against the Canucks this season as he has two goals and two assists in four games against Vancouver and could be in a bounce-back spot come Tuesday night.
• Matt Barzal, NYI ($6,200 DK / $6,700 FD) - This is the cheapest price point for Barzal this year over on DK, and with the reduced price, it is worth giving him a look. Barzal has scored three points over his last four games played and has generated one goal and two assists in two games against New Jersey this season.
• Paul Stastny, WPG ($3,900 DK / $5,300 FD) - Stastny doesn't offer much multi-point upside but he does skate alongside two very solid wingers in Ehlers and Connor which makes him a solid value play on this slate. His line generated six scoring chances in six minutes of ice time against Vancouver and actually saw some additional time skating alongside Wheeler and Scheifele and that combination generated seven scoring chances.

Other centers to consider: Hayes. Zibanejad, Point, Trocheck, Pettersson, Roslovic, Suzuki, Stenlund, Laughton

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Steven Stamkos, TBL ($7,500 DK / $8,300 FD) - Stamkos is having another solid season for Tampa and despite him being lowered down to the second line for Tampa, he is still featured on the first power-play unit and is always viewed as an elite scoring threat. Stamkos had a solid outing last week against Dallas as he notched a goal and an assist despite seeing 14 minutes of ice time.
• Andrei Svechnikov, CAR ($5,900 DK / $6,100 FD) - It can be tough to nail down which Canes player is viable on any given slate but the player with the most upside is Andrei Svechnikov. Svechnikov is averaging three shots per game over his last four games and while he is in a little bit of a cold spell when it comes to generating points, he faces a Nashville team that is allowing three goals per game to opposing teams this year.
• Evgeny Svechnikov, DET ($2,900 DK / $3,000 FD) - The Red Wings need all the help they can get when it comes to generating offense so it would make sense if they keep rolling with the hot hand in Evgeny Svechnikov. Svechnikov is the younger brother of Andrei Svechnikov and he is making the most of his playing time as he has taken three shots per game in his first two games of the season while generating a goal in each game. He isn't seeing much playing time which is a bit of concern but if he is active, he is worth a look when it comes to your tournament builds.

Other wings to consider: Forsberg, Tkachuk, Toffoli, Atkinson, Laine, Rust, Wheeler, Boeser, Lee, Gallagher, Miller, Eberle, Bjorkstrand, Necas, Batherson, McCann

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Roman Josi, NSH ($7,000 DK / $6,700 FD) - Roman Josi is finally rounding into the form that we have come to know over the past several seasons. He has generated a point in three of his last four games and has generated five points in that four-game span.
• Brett Pesce, CAR ($4,300 DK / $4,200 FD) - One Canes defender that has really stuck out recently has been Brett Pesce. He has generated a point in three straight games and is averaging four peripheral stats per game during that three-game stretch. Pesce is seeing an uptick in ice time as he is on ice for over 23 minutes per game during that three-game stretch and looks to have solidified a role on their second defensive pairing and on the second power-play unit.
• Mattias Ekholm, NSH ($3,900 DK / $3,900 FD) - It is tough to not always go back to Ekholm when his pricepoint is under 4k on both sites. Since rejoining the Preds lineup, Ekholm is averaging over five peripheral stats per game while also lighting the lamp twice in a two-game span.

Other defensemen to consider: Hedman, Hamilton, Petry, Fox, Ellis, Weber, Pulock, Werenski, Sergachev, Morrissey, Myers, Butcher, Dobson, Leddy, Cernak
 

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Carey Price, MTL ($8,400 DK / $7,800 FD) - Montreal is a heavy favorite on this slate which automatically brings Price into the conversation for your goalie selection for both cash games and tournaments. Price hasn't looked great this year as he has a 5-4-3 record with a 3.13 goals allowed average and a .888 save percentage. He is 0-1-1 against Ottawa this season while having a 3.39 goals allowed average and a .885 save percentage but should have a slight advantage as they will have the home-ice advantage and Ottawa is on the end of a back-to-back.
• Joonas Korpisalo, CBJ ($8,100 DK / $7,400 FD) - Korpisalo has been a bit unlucky lately as he has lost three straight games while averaging only two goals per game allowed during that three-game stretch. Korpisalo is 5-7-4 on the season with a 3.27 goals allowed average and a .894 save percentage but is 1-0 against Detroit as he stopped 35 of 37 shots against them earlier this season.
• Igor Shesterkin, NYR ($7,900 DK / $7,300 FD) - The Sabres have struggled to score recently which makes Shesterkin in play for tonight's slate. Over their last 10 games played, the Sabres have only generated 17 goals which only shows how bad their offense has been over the last month of games played. Shesterkin has been solid despite having a record of 4-7-1 on the year. While the record isn't pretty, he does have a 2.44 goals allowed average and a .917 save percentage which tells me he is putting his team in a position to win but his team isn't generating enough offense to get the win.

Other goalies to consider: Varlamov, Reimer

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• TBL 1
  • Palat/ Point/ Coleman (Hedman, d-men add on)
    • The Lightning have switched up their lines a bit and have moved Coleman from the third line to the top line and it has been a nice addition. In 34 minutes of ice time together, they are producing 36.26 scoring chances for and 8.63 high-danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. This line is carrying a 3.13 expected goals for rate and has produced two high danger goals throughout the 34 minutes of ice time together. The Stars are a solid defensive team and with people knowing this, the top line for the Lightning could go lower owned in tournaments. The Stars are pretty average on the penalty kill so one way to get different is to stack the Lightning power play and get exposure to the second line by including Stamkos in a build with Hedman, Point, and Palat.
• MTL 2
  • Drouin/ Suzuki/ Toffoli 
    • This newly formed second line for Montreal has plenty of upside as they skate together at even strength but are all also featured on the top power-play unit as well for the Canadiens. In just 22 minutes of ice time together as a full line, they are sporting a 72.22 corsi for rate while having a 3.6 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes. In addition, they're generating 49.67 scoring chances for and 18.3 high danger chances per 60 minutes of ice time. One of the biggest headaches for rostering Montreal has been the lack of correlation as guys tend to be spread out throughout the power-play units but if they're able to keep these lines the same, then we could have some confidence in rostering them and knowing there is a strong correlation at full strength and on the power-play.
• CBJ 3 
  • Domi/ Stenlund/ Bjorkstrand (Werenski, d-men add on)
    • If needing some salary relief, the third line for the Blue Jackets really stands out. In 38 minutes of ice time,  this line has a 4.72 expected goals for rate per 60 while generating 32.74 scoring chances for and 20.27 high danger chances for per 60 minutes. While the Red Wings have actually been better on the defensive end, the focus and attention will shift to defending the top line featuring Laine and Atkinson which leaves the third line open for some good matchups throughout the game.

Other Stacks to consider: NYI 1, CAR 1, NYR 1, WPG 1, CAR 2, PIT 2, PHI 2, WPG 2, VAN 2

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Scheifele (1.4X), Barzal (1.4X), Poiint (1.4X), Trocheck (1.75X), DuBois (1.8X)

W: Stamkos (1.X), Laine (1.3X), Wheeler (1.3X), Forsberg (1.6X), Gallagher (1.65X)

D: Hedman (1.1X), Hughes (1.3X), Josi (1.35), Jones (1.55X)

G: Vasilevskiy (1.25X), Varlamov (1.7X), Price (1.75X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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