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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Wednesday, February 10th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
With nine games on Wednesday, a third of the season is officially behind us. Since last night, multiple props have lowered, but James Harden's and Luka Doncic's assists have remained the same, along with Jonas Valanciunas line of 13.5 rebounds against the Hornets. Other than that, Clint Capela, Bradley Beal and Giannis Antetokounmpo have all seen decreases in their projected lines.
Clint Capela is facing the Mavericks who have Maxi Kleber back in the lineup. He significantly alters Dallas' rebounding projections, so look for him to help keep Capela from completely owning the boards. Both Beal and Antetokounmpo are set for big games, especially since Jrue Holiday is going to be out and Russell Westbrook should be back in the lineup.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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TOR @ WAS
Bradley Beal (WAS) MORE 31.5 Points - Fred Vanvleet (TOR) LESS 22.5 Points
As stated earlier, Russell Westbrook will be back in the lineup and even though that means Bradley Beal won't have the same usage, it's the spacing we need. Teams target Beal on defense and with Westbrook alongside him, it's much harder to do that and Beal still has the same upside for points. The Raptors backcourt isn't good enough to be a concern when facing two scorers like Beal and Westbrook. Good luck to the rest of the team, though.
On the other side, Fred VanVleet is always going to be some part of the offense, and the best part about his role is that he doesn't force shots. It's tough when you take the under and he has a great night, because we've seen what a good night for him is. With that, since the rest of the Raptors have so much upside, there is a better chance he is used more as a facilitator than shooter.
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ATL @ DAL
Trae Young (ATL) MORE 27.5 Points - Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 27.5
These point totals haven't changed since last night and for good reason. Both are more than capable of putting up 28 every night, and recent games combined with previous matchups between the two squads don't necessarily indicate they will sacrifice their own scoring for their teammates. Everything points to these two players doing the most for their squads and the only downside is that other Mavericks players have been, somewhat, easing the load for Doncic.
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IND @ BKN
Kyrie Irving (BKN) MORE 28.5 Points - Domantas Sabonis (IND) MORE 22.5
Kyrie Irving could never have a cap on his production, but lately he's had consistency in terms of his scoring output. The under has been the safe bet for most of the season, but it's clear when Kevin Durant isn't playing, the Nets aren't nearly as good or as competitive as they need to be to get everything out of Irving. The Pistons got the better of them Tuesday, and even though the Pacers should beat a Durant-less Brooklyn team, that doesn't mean Irving and Harden aren't going down swinging.
Sabonis has his work cut out for him and the biggest concern is that the same can be said for Myles Turner. Since Sabonis has been on a tear all season, it's not likely to just change, but upside is all over the Indiana frontcourt and it does worry me that Turner could be just as impactful on offense.
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LAC @ MIN
Kawhi Leonard (LAC) MORE 28.5 Points - Malik Beasley (MIN) MORE 20.5
Usually when you look at these teams, you'd think blowout, no way Kawhi Leonard even get's close to 30-points tonight. While the Clippers should still win handily, Leonard has no choice but control the offense when he's out there. His consistency is going to be needed against the Minnesota defense that doesn't seem intimidating on paper, but closes out and hustles regardless of outcome.
For the Minnesota offense, Malik Beasley is their best scorer at the moment and they are feeding him production. Assuming this number rises to 22.5 before tip-off, try to find as many Beasley at 20.5 points as you can.
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CLE @ DEN
Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 25.5 Points - Collin Sexton (CLE) MORE 23.5
Even when facing Andre Drummond, that's not enough to slow down Nikola Jokic. Arguably, there isn't a defender that can stop him, since the only thing that has proven effective at stopping Jokic is putting multiple bodies on him while he's in the post, and running him ragged on the defensive end. Basically, exactly what the Cavaliers aren't the best at doing. Sexton might make it tough by driving, but since Jokic will be able to sit in Drummond's pocket all night, there's a great chance Jokic dishes it back on offense.
Collin Sexton has almost no resistance when facing this frontcourt, and luckily for us, a win or a loss doesn't disqualify his statistical output. If he is set up for a big game, he'll step up. There's always the chance he misses shots, but the way he plays and the way this defense is set up, it'll be harder for Sexton to settle for outside shots when the paint is so open.
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