January 23, 2021

Arizona Diamondbacks starter Caleb Smith had a wild, injury-shortened 2020 season. Really, that could be said about any part of his career. Smith has shown flashes of dominance at times, but has been unable to sustain success over long periods. He put up a 2.57 ERA in 2020, though it was only over 14 innings. Smith also managed to walk 12 batters and allow three home runs in those 14 innings, so his 2.57 ERA is less impressive when taken in context. A COVID infection cost Smith over a month of action and lingering effects of the virus may have affected his on-field ability, so it's okay to be a bit forgiving of his limited 2020 numbers. If we wipe away Smith's 2020, we get a pitcher who's maintained an impressive 26.3% strikeout rate over his last two seasons. Smith has gotten excellent results with his slider, which batters have hit just .196 against with a 16% swinging strike rate all time. With above average break for a lefty, the pitch is tremendous as generating whiffs while avoiding hard contact. The slider isn't Smith's only weapon either, as he has a 17.1% swinging strike rate with his changeup for his career, along with a .234 AVG against. His changeup has helped Smith maintain even platoon splits, as he's been able to hold righties to just a .213 AVG over his career compared to a .247 AVG for lefties. With two solid pitches and the ability to neutralize hitters on both sides, Smith should have no problem flourishing as a starter in the majors, however he carries a couple of flaws that have limited his success. Chronic Gopheritis (1.71 career HR/9) and wild control (10.3% career BB rate) make it hard for Smith to keep runners off the bases and from crossing home plate. With strikeouts easier to come by in the modern era, Smith loses some appeal as a late round sleeper. Still, he's worth a gamble in deeper leagues as a back-end starter.--Elliott Baas