NHL DFS Power Play for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft: DFS Value Plays, Goalies Matrix, Stacks (1/15)

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Friday, January 15th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/15

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-250)- 6.5U
Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-110) - 6U
Toronto Maple Leafs (-200) vs. Ottawa Senators - 6.5O
Washington Capitals (-129) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 6U
St. Louis Blues vs. Colorado Avalanche (-140)- 6U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Goalie Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Chicago	16	1	14	13	16.75
Tampa Bay	7	20	31	19	13.5
Pittsburgh	11	26	22	12	19.5
Philadelphia	7	31	25	16	18
Toronto	26	13	29	6	17.25
Ottawa	30	3	7	23	17
Washington	18	23	30	11	20.5
Buffalo	22	18	11	30	20.25
St. Louis	5	28	17	21	17.5
Colorado	6	15	28	9	14.75

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK %
Chicago	28	13
Tampa Bay	5	8
Pittsburgh	16	11
Philadelphia	14	8
Toronto	6	27
Ottawa	30	21
Washington	17	29
Buffalo	20	6
St. Louis	3	13
Colorado	19	18

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc). When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

Center Picks

Brayden Point ($ 7,300 DK/ $7,900 FD) - The Lightning got off to a hot start Wednesday night against Chicago and Brayden Point was one of the main reasons why they put up five goals on opening night. Point found the back of the net once while also assisting on another goal as well. The Blackhawks had no answer for the Lightning and unfortunately, we could see more of the same on this slate.
Kevin Hayes ($ 5,700 DK/ $ 5,700 FD) - Philly had their way with the Penguins on opening night and the second line for the Flyers was able to generate several points. Hayes finished the night with a goal and an assist and he carries extreme upside as he also skates on the top power-play unit as well.
Anthony Cirelli ($ 4,300 DK/ $ 4,900 FD) - Anthony Cirelli is a cornerstone for the Lightning as he centers the second line and also plays down low on the second power-play unit. Cirelli provides great value as most teams try to line match with the Point line which leaves him and his linemates in great matchups. Cirelli is of great value on both sites as he is coming off of a four-shot performance where he found the back of the net once while also notching an assist as well.

Other centers to consider: Matthews, Eichel, Tavares, Strome, Patrick

Forward Picks

Steven Stamkos ($ 7,600 DK/ $ 8,600 FD) - With Nikita Kucherov being out for the entire regular season, a bulk of the scoring will fall on both Point and Stamkos. Stamkos had a very good opening night as he took five shots on goal, registered one goal, and also collected two assists against Chicago. His price point didn't really move much on DK which makes him a great play in all formats.
Mitch Marner ($ 6,200DK/ $ 7,400 FD) - The price tag on Marner is just too good to pass up on over on DK. He is in the low 6k range and for the second-highest point-getter on the Maple Leafs from last season, he looks viable in all formats. Marner has done exceptionally well against Ottawa as he has scored a point in four straight games and has racked up 15 total points over his last 10 games against the Senators (6 goals, 9 assists).
Joel Farabee ($ 4,300 DK/ $ 4,200 FD) - Farabee had the best opening night one could ask for as he netted a goal and got three total assists on the night. Farabee's line generated seven total scoring chances with five of them being high danger opportunities and with how well they pursued the puck, it would be wise to go right back to this line and roster Farabee.

Other wings to consider: Ovechkin, Tkachuk, Palat, Burakovsky, Kubalik, Killorn, JVR, Dadonov, Stuetzle

Defenseman Picks

John Carlson ($ 6,900 DK/ $ 6,600 FD) - Carlson led all defensemen in total points scored last season with 75 and he is already starting out strong this year. In last night's game against the Sabres, Carlson had both a goal and a power-play assist while also taking six shots which led all Caps players. He is still under 7k on both sites which really is a value for someone like Carlson.
Morgan Rielly ($ 5,200 DK/ $ 5,600 FD) - Rielly is coming off of a disappointing 2020 season as he was only able to accrue 27 points in 47 games played. Rielly got off to a hot start to the 2021 season as he took four shots on goal and notched his first goal of the season which happened to be the game-winning goal in overtime. It is best to hop on the Rielly train now before his price climbs above 6k on both sites!
Devon Toews ($ 4,500 DK/ $ 4,200 FD) - Toews is always a player that I personally liked to use when it came to rostering cheaper defensemen. He led all Islanders defenders in points last season (28) and also led them with the most shots as well at the position (110). He gets an upgrade this season as he will be skating alongside Cale Makar and has plenty of assist opportunities by having one of the best players in the league in Nathan MacKinnon skating on his top line.

Other defensemen to consider: Chabot, Makar, Provorov, Brodie, Cernak

Goalie Picks

Andrei Vasilevskiy ($ 8,500 DK/ $ 8,600 FD) - The best cash game option is once again Andrei Vasilevskiy. He had a very good performance Wednesday night against Chicago as he allowed in one goal on 22 total shots. While he is expensive, he does offer the best overall win odds and the Blackhawks look like they were completely outmatched in all facets of the game on Wednesday.
Frederik Andersen ($ 8,300 DK/ $ 8,200 FD) - Andersen is as solid as it gets when it comes to DFS goaltender options. Lasts season, Andersen went 31-15-8 while having a 2.75 goals allowed average and a .912 save percentage. He averaged 14 DK points per game and had four total shutouts. The game against the Sens features the highest game total on the slate but it does lean in favor of the Maple Leafs.
Matt Murray ($ 7,100 DK/ $ 6,700 FD) - The former Penguins goalie has found a new home in Ottawa and while the Sens do not have the best defense in the league, they do have some youthful talent that can play fast. Murray went 20-11-5 in 38 appearances for the Penguins last season while having a 2.87 goals allowed average. The matchup against Toronto is extremely tough but Murray will see plenty of saves opportunities and we all know that saves lead to fantasy points for goalies! Murray would be very risky in cash games but could be used in tournaments.

Other goalies to consider: Hart, Grubauer

Note: If you do roster a goalie in cash games, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Chicago is my hedge team for opening night as their top line is underpriced and opens up salary relief for a more expensive stack to pair with.

Favorite Line Stacks

TB 1: Palat, Point, Stamkos- The Lightning dominated the Blackhawks Wednesday night and this top-line really came through as they combined to score three goals, three assists, and combine for 10 total shots on the night. The pricing still seems a tad soft for the matchup against Chicago so getting some pieces of this line is a must when making some tournament lines.
TOR 1: Thornton, Matthews, Marner - Toronto will be one of the highest owned teams on the slate due to the game total and overall matchup. The top line for the Maple Leafs did a great job possessing the puck and getting shots off as they produced a 86.88 CF/60 against Montreal Wednesday night. If wanting to get a little different, look to drop Thornton from the stack and use Rielly or add in Wayne Simmonds to stack the top power-play line. The Sens had one of the worst penalty-killing units in the entire league lasts season and the Maple Leafs were able to net two power-play goals opening night so it wouldn't be surprising to see them find success on the power play again.
WSH 1: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie- Washington is on the second half of a back-to-back against Buffalo, and in the first game on Thursday night, the Caps were able to score six total goals. The top line of the Caps combined for seven total points scored and seemed to dominate the matchup against Eichel, Hall, and Thompson.
PHI 2: Giroux, Hayes, Farabee- The Flyers were outshot against the Penguins but were able to be more efficient and convert on fewer chances. The Flyers second line skated a good bit with the Penguin's second line and created four scoring chances and two high danger opportunities against them. The Malkin line for the Penguins is not the best line defensively and if they opt to line match again as they did in the first game, it wouldn't be surprising to see PHI 2 dominate their matchup again.

Other Stacks to consider: COL 1, TOR 2, BUF 1, PITT 3, OTT 2