RADIO
We were initially set to make this Week 16 IDP Waiver Wire column all about additions for the future. However, I received several DMs over the past two days requesting that we target our waiver column towards their final week championship push. After all, Week 16 is the final week for many custom fantasy leagues, like those using IDP setups. So it makes sense that some of you would be looking for players who could have one big week and make up some points in in your finals.
So in answer to your requests, we will put off our dynasty IDP Waiver Wire column and tailor today’s column specifically towards players who can help you win this week.
We will be talking defenders rostered in less than a quarter of leagues, but who could outperform your regular starters in this final week of your fantasy playoffs. However, please remember that players on this list are widely available in IDP leagues and their inclusion on this list does not necessarily mean they are better plays than established stars like Myles Garrett and Devin White.
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IDP Settings
If you skipped my weekly rant, as many of you do, then you made a wise choice! You skipped the ramblings of a madman and now get to drink the nectars of his sweet, sweet brain! And you’ll likely notice that those nectars taste an awful lot like our waiver rankings for this week!
As a reminder, we will use the following IDP designations/league settings for our FAAB recommendations:
- Standard Scoring Leagues: This system usually rewards 1-point per tackle, 3-points per sack, 4-points per turnover, and sometimes offers 2-points for a tackle for loss (TFL) or pass deflection (PD). Standard leagues also usually only start one DL, LB, and DB, respectively. You will always prioritize your FAAB budget towards offensive players in Standard Scoring IDP leagues, though you shouldn't underestimate the value of adding a great defender in them.
- Defense Premium Leagues: Defense Premium leagues tend to try to make defensive players worth as much as offensive players. Commissioners often accomplish this by rewarding 2-points per tackle, 3-points for TFL or PDs, 4-points per sack, and 6-points per turnover. In these leagues, you don't necessarily prioritize offensive players on waivers. While it is a case-by-case analysis, defenders in these leagues can often be worth as much as most offensive waiver additions.
- Deep Defense Leagues: These are leagues that have you start a full defense, or require you to start CBs and DTs, or they are leagues so deep (think 16 team leagues) that at least 32 players at each position (DL, LB, and DB) start every week.
- Dynasty Leagues: This is self-explanatory to most. Dynasty leagues are those in which every player you draft/add is on your team until you trade or release him.
Now that we have that explanation out of the way, let's get to this week's top adds! Remember that we will only address defenders who are rostered in less than 30% of IDP leagues on ESPN, Yahoo, or other prominent sites. We will also do our best to avoid obvious additions. While players like Myles Garrett are somehow rostered in only 31% of ESPN IDP leagues, we assume that anyone reading this material knows to add Garrett if they can.
Waiver Wire Defenders With Plus Playoff Matchups
1. Kamren Curl, DB, Washington Football Team
Rostered in 19.6% of IDP leagues
The good news is that Curl has been added in more than 10% of IDP leagues over the past week. The bad news is that he is still available in more than 80% of IDP leagues. As I warned you before, he will make this list until he is rostered in more than 25% of leagues. He has been that consistent at an inconsistent fantasy DB position.
Over the past seven games, the Arkansas rookie has only one game with less than eight tackles. During that time he also has a pick-six and two sacks. Despite his low-profile, Curl’s production has been remarkably steady, regardless of his opponents. So it isn’t very concerning that his opponent this week is the low-volume Carolina offense. Curl has shown himself to be a matchup-proof option so far this season.
Washington’s rookie safety should be rostered in all dynasty formats and pretty much all redraft leagues. There are only seven or eight DBs who you would realistically start over Curl in your championship this week, and there is a good argument for him to be a top-five option.
FAAB: Whatever you have left (unless you need to bid for Jalen Hurts, Salvon Ahmed, or an offensive player of similar value)
2. Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals
Rostered in 3.3% of leagues
Peterson is historically a fantasy corner you would avoid in most formats because opposing quarterbacks avoided him like the plague. That sort of offensive aversion was obviously a problem for fantasy opportunities. Offenses aren’t avoiding Peterson as they used to, though. He is averaging 5.14 targets per game in 2020, and he has been targeted seven or more times in four different contests.
Even better than the increased opportunities Peterson has seen recently, is the fact he plays a 49ers offense missing its starting running back (Raheem Mostert) and starting its third-string quarterback (C.J. Beathard) this week. In his ten games as an NFL starter, Beathard is averaging 3.5 sacks, two turnovers, and 35.7 pass attempts per game. Those totals should be considered Beathard’s floor against a talented Cardinals Defense that may be able to tee-off on a 49ers offense missing multiple starters.
Peterson has shadowed five times this season. If George Kittle doesn't play, Brandon Aiyuk is the only 49er worthy of Peterson’s attention. Aiyuk is averaging 12.4 targets per game over the past five contests, and there’s no reason to believe Beathard won't continue that trend. If Peterson is targeted anywhere near 12 times this week, he should outperform steady fantasy CBs like Marlon Humphrey and the injured Carlton Davis.
FAAB: 1%
3. Rayshawn Jenkins and Nasir Adderley, DBs, Los Angeles Chargers
Rostered in 9.4 and 1.1% of leagues, respectively
There are five or six Chargers who are IDP relevant this week, even in your more shallow leagues. The reason for streaming your Chargers is that their opponent this week (the Denver Broncos) leads the NFL in both turnovers and interceptions. While that statistic is somewhat inflated by the fact the Broncos have had to start so many different quarterbacks (and non-quarterbacks) this year, Drew Lock has thrown 13 picks and fumbled the ball eight times in 11 games himself. With that kind of turnover average, it’s pretty obvious why you would want to start your Chargers.
Jenkins is the obvious start of these two, as he has been a fantasy DB2 a number of times already this season. You like his chances of continuing as a DB2 this week and possibly getting the turnover he needs to be a DB1. If both Jenkins and Adderley are available in your league, Jenkins would be the higher floor priority.
Adderley is a quietly interesting addition in his own right, however. He has corner experience and instincts, but he plays the safety position. That could come in handy against the turnover prone Broncos. If he starts (he currently has an injury designation), Adderley could be a sneaky addition for those who are desperately looking for a big play from their DB this week.
FAAB for Jenkins: 3%
FAAB for Adderley: Wait
4. Leonard Floyd, DL/LB, Los Angeles Rams
Rostered in 12.9% of leagues
My push for Floyd didn’t work out against the Jets last week. He disappointed just like most of the Rams did in a very flat performance. That said, I recommended Floyd because he had two weeks of good matchups ahead, and not just one. The boom-or-bust pass rusher still has a solid matchup against Seattle in your fantasy championship week, and he merits consideration as a high ceiling streamer for those who have to take some risks to win your title.
While the Seahawks’ pass-rate has dipped over the past two weeks and their pass defense has improved, that trend has taken place in two contests where the Seahawks led all game against bad offenses. The Seahawks could afford to establish the run in those games because neither Washington nor the Jets were real threats to score 24+ points against them. They may not have that kind of privilege against an angry Rams team that has to win this week, though.
Russell Wilson takes an average of 3.6 sacks per game when he attempts more than 30 attempts in a game this season. He should throw the ball more than 30 times this week against a dialed-in Rams team that knows the division is on the line. A higher scoring contest spells good fantasy potential for Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd.
FAAB: 3%
5. Derrick Brown, DT, Carolina Panthers
Rostered in 1.7% of leagues
Brown is a deeper league option and should be on most dynasty rosters, especially those that demand you play a DT. That said, the very talented first-round pick has some redraft value thanks to the fact he is ascending at the right time. He just logged his first two sacks as a professional against an unexpected team: the Green Bay Packers, who have allowed the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL this season. He pushed the pocket regularly against a strong offensive line this past week, and the hope is he can continue to get that kind of movement against a lesser opponent like Washington.
Washington is currently allowing 3.14 sacks per game, good for fourth-worst in the league. The team also doesn't know who its QB will be this week, but neither Alex Smith nor Dwayne Haskins has been particularly elusive this season. That said, Brown has to be hoping that the distracted and flawed Haskins is the starter. Haskins is averaging 3.4 sacks and one fumble per game as a starter this year.
With Haskins’ tendencies and this offensive line, Brown is an excellent sleeper in redraft leagues that require you to start a DT. Brian Burns is an excellent start in all formats this week, as well.
FAAB: Wait
6. Kwon Alexander, LB, New Orleans Saints
Rostered in 6.8% of leagues
If you’ve been reading our columns this year, you know that I have faded Alexander all season. While the former 49er and Buccaneer is a talented playmaker, he misses too many tackles and carries too many injury concerns to trust as a long-term asset… but for one week, you could do worse than Alexander and his Week 16 matchup.
The LSU product has seen a massive spike in playing time over the past two weeks, and he has created two turnovers as a result. Alexander’s upward trend in performance is coming at just the right time too, because he has a terrific matchup against Minnesota this week. The Vikings’ entire offense runs through Dalvin Cook, and he will see 30+ touches this week if he stays healthy. Those touches will come in the run and pass game, and it won’t shock anyone if Alexander is active against the run and is used to shadow Cook in coverage.
You have to like Alexander’s odds of collecting at least six tackles, one TFL, and possibly a turnover this week. That production should be enough to make him a borderline LB2 during your championship finale.
FAAB: Wait
7. Neville Gallimore, DT, Dallas Cowboys
Rostered in less than 1% of leagues
Gallimore is a true dark horse pick if you play in anything but a Deep Defense setup. That said… there are several reasons to like Gallimore as a boom-or-bust option in Week 16.
The former Oklahoma Sooner carried a high second-round grade for me going into this NFL Draft, and he was one of my biggest steals of the entire Draft. While his potential was predictably underutilized early this season, the Cowboys have given him significant playing time (more than 50% of defensive snaps) in every game since Week 9. The rookie has rewarded that faith with some solid performances, and he secured his best game as a pro last week when he totaled five tackles, two pressures, and one TFL.
Look for Gallimore to continue his solid play this week against an Eagles team that has allowed the most sacks all season. What’s even better is that Philly is starting a fumble-prone rookie QB now, who just so happens to be a former teammate of Gallimore. Jalen Hurts fumbled the ball more than all but four players in college football last year, and he has fumbled five times in two starts this season.
If Gallimore can get in the backfield against the Eagles, there is a decent chance he gets you a strip-sack this week. He is a roster consideration in redraft leagues that require you to play a DT, Deep Defense leagues, and in dynasty.
FAAB: Wait
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