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Eli Grabanski analyzes offensive play-calling tendencies of NFC West coaches and breaks down the fantasy football impact for running backs in 2020.
In fantasy football, many of us 'experts' in the field try to take as much data into account before making a conclusion on players. That includes means looking at things like game tape, the team's offensive line, or their primary play-callers historical tendencies to utilize a certain position. After much research, I've developed a broad knowledge of how each team's play-caller historically has utilized their running backs.
Today we will look at the NFC West. The division didn't have any major changes to their coaching staffs this past offseason, and for good reason. Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in football, taking his San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl last year. Kliff Kingsbury was hired in Arizona last year because his collegiate play-calling led to some of the best college offenses in recent memory.
In Los Angeles, football prodigy Sean McVay has directed the Rams offense to be one of the most dangerous in the league. McVay will be the primary play-caller once again but will receive some fresh input from new offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell. The Seattle Seahawks will once again leave Brian Schottenheimer in charge of the play-calling and hope they can get back to the Super Bowl on the back of a strong running game. Let's go team by team and take a closer look at how these coaches and their tendencies will affect the fantasy values of their running backs.
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San Francisco 49ers
Primary Play-Caller: Kyle Shanahan
Kyle Shanahan has been one of the best offensive minds in football in recent memory, and it has led to two Super Bowl appearances for his teams in the last 5 years (Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI, and the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV last year). In fantasy, however, many fantasy players debate whether or not he's a positive or a negative asset for his running backs in fantasy. So to answer that question, here's a look at how Kyle Shanahan has historically featured his running backs in the ground game.
The takeaway from this research is that while there is plenty of opportunity for the RB room as a whole, Kyle Shanahan tends to use a committee backfield where he rides the hot-hand. In six of his 12 seasons as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Shanahan's RB1 has failed to crack 175 carries, and his RB1 has cracked 1000+ yards in only five of these 12 years. It takes a special talent to have him change his approach, and it seems unlikely that one of Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, or Jerick McKinnon will buck the trend on the ground in 2020.
But running usage is only part of it. Here's a look at how Kyle Shanahan has utilized his running backs through the air.
Play-caller Net Impact on RB: Negative for RB1 in the ground game/Positive for RB2 & RB3 in the ground game/Negative for the passing game - Kyle Shanahan does run the ball frequently in comparison to other play-callers, but this benefit is negated by his tendency to run a committee approach. In the passing game, Shanahan surprisingly doesn't use his running backs as much as conventional wisdom would suggest. The main takeaway is if you're going to invest in a Kyle Shanahan running back in fantasy football, wait and go after whoever opens up the season as the RB2.
Seattle Seahawks
Primary Play-Caller: Brian Schottenheimer
The Seattle Seahawks are led by a defensive-minded head coach in Pete Carroll, and Carroll has generally left the team's offense to be led by the offensive coordinator. In recent years, that's been Brian Schottenheimer. Schottenheimer has been well-known for a strong ground game, so let's take a look at how his running backs have historically performed.
Looking at this graph of how Brian Schottenheimer has used his running backs in the past does not do justice for how run-heavy his offense is. When adjusting for a full 16 game season, his average running back room gets about 405 carries, with the lead back getting about 252 of those carries. This gives his lead back a very high floor, as well as making the handcuffs of his lead back some of the most valuable in the league.
Now let's take a little look at how Schottenheimer uses his running backs in the passing game.
While he only targets his running back room slightly more than the average coach, Schottenheimer also provides something that many other coaches haven't had historically - consistency from year to year. In all but two seasons as an offensive coordinator, Schottenheimer's running back room has received 83+ targets. This is a good sign for Chris Carson and the rest of the running back room, giving them a solid floor in PPR leagues.
Play-caller Net Impact on RB: Positive - Schottenheimer is a huge proponent for using his running backs in the ground game and is slightly above average for giving them opportunities in the passing game. Do not sleep on Chris Carson in drafts, and Rashaad Penny/Carlos Hyde are also worth monitoring for their handcuff potential in Brian Schottenheimer's system.
Los Angeles Rams
Primary Play-Caller: Sean McVay
Sean McVay has been one of the biggest success stories at head coach in recent years, and now many teams are trying to emulate what the Rams did and hire a young offensive-minded coach. But this season will be a great test of Sean McVay's coaching abilities as the team has lost some key pieces in the offseason including star running back Todd Gurley. With a clear void at running back, it's a good idea to look at Sean McVay's history of utilizing the position. So we'll start by taking a look at how Sean McVay has used his running backs in the run game.
Looking at this graph, Sean McVay doesn't appear to give his RB room anything more than an average amount of carries (22.06 per game), with the room averaging about 353 carries per season. However, what has been encouraging for fantasy owners is McVay's preference for a bell-cow running back. While he has been adaptable in the past to run a hot-hand approach (see 2015 and 2016), over his six years as a play-caller his lead back has gotten 65.77% of the carries, averaging 232 carries per 16 game season.
Besides the run game, it's also important to consider how Sean McVay utilizes his running backs as pass-catchers. Here's a little look at how he has utilized his running backs as pass-catchers.
McVay pretty consistently gave his RB Room 89-101 targets until last year, where his RB room only got 61 targets. On one hand, we can expect some positive regression in targets for McVay's running backs. But on the other hand, the opportunity ceiling in the passing game historically has never been very high in McVay's offenses and it takes a special talent to fully capitalize on it, like prime Todd Gurley.
Play-caller Net Impact on RB: Neutral - Sean McVay is a great coach who will provide more red-zone opportunities for any running back on his team. But in terms of the overall opportunity the running and passing games (carries+targets), his numbers are relatively average. Don't bank on Darrell Henderson or Cam Akers changing that tendency this season.
Secondary Play-Caller: Kevin O'Connell
While there are a lot of the same old faces in the NFC West, there is one new face: Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell. O'Connell was the offensive coordinator in Washington during the 2019 NFL season and found a new home in Los Angeles. He won't be calling plays in LA, but he should have some input on how the offense is run. Because of this, let's take a look at how Kevin O'Connell uses his running backs in the ground game.
Not phenomenal. O'Connell's offense wasn't great last year in general, and the running backs struggled on the ground. He only gave his running backs 315 carries last year (19.69 per game). The one bright spot is that he did give his lead back Adrian Peterson 66.98% of the carries in the running back room, which suggests he may like to feature one back.
Now let's look at how Kevin O'Connell uses his running backs in the passing game.
Kevin O'Connell did utilize the running backs an above-average amount in the passing game, giving his RB room 103 targets (6.44 per game). Chris Thompson was the main beneficiary receiving 58 targets. O'Connell's usage of his running backs in the passing game is very promising and could be a good sign for the Rams in the future.
Play-caller Net Impact on RB: Slightly Negative in Run Game/Slightly Positive in the Pass Game- It's difficult to make a ton of conclusions after only one season as an offensive coordinator, but Kevin O'Connell's willingness to abandon the run last year does raise some eyebrows for concern. For now, his impact should be looked at as a slight negative for running backs usage in the run game, and a slight positive for running backs usage in the passing game until he has another season or two under his belt.
Arizona Cardinals
Primary Play-Caller: Kliff Kingsbury
Kliff Kingsbury was one of the riskiest head coaching hires last year, but he seems to have been a great fit, helping the Cardinals offense improve from one of the worst NFL offenses in 2018 to a middle of the pack offense in 2019. With the Cardinals roster improvements and Kliff Kingbury's play-calling wizardry, the offense is set to take another step forward.
If the offense does take a step forward, it'll be important to consider who are the best players to own in that offense. Running backs? Wide receivers? Tight-Ends? While there's a lot to consider here's a look at how Kliff Kingsbury used his running backs in the run game.
Kenyan Drake received the most carries and only got 43.93% of the running back room carries in the 2019-2020 season and may lead fantasy football owners to believe that Kingsbury runs a committee approach. But the graph above may be a little deceiving considering Drake played in only eight games. Last season Kingsbury preferred the bell-cow approach at running back, whether it was with David Johnson for the first 6 games, Chase Edmonds, or Kenyan Drake down the stretch.
If you are going to be concerned about anything with Kliff Kingbury as a play-caller, it should be usage for the whole RB room. Last year his running back room only received 280 carries all year (17.5 per game), so if Kingsbury starts to embrace more of a committee approach it could be catastrophic for Drake's value.
Besides the ground game, it's also important to consider how Kliff Kingsbury used his running backs in the passing game.
In the passing game, 104 targets for your RB Room over the course of a season is pretty good! Drake managed to get 35 targets in the last 8 games, which would put him on pace for 70 targets in a full 16 game season.
Play-caller Net Impact on RB: Slight Negative in Run Game/Slight Positive in Pass Game - Ideally it would make more sense to wait until Kliff Kingsbury has more than one NFL season under his wing to make declarations about whether he is a positive, negative, or neutral asset for running backs. For now, based on last season we will say he's a slight negative for a running back in the run game and a slight positive for a running back in the passing game.
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