RADIO
The NBA season continues to push towards the playoffs and we’ve seen enough bubble ball to form some opinions on what is happening.
Some players have responded to the bubble life by taking on increased roles and breaking out offensively. Indiana’s T.J. Warren is a veteran who has handled more responsibility for Indiana while Denver rookie Michael Porter Jr. is emerging rapidly as a potential star.
Of course, the tried and true performers can still do their things, too, but it’s been exciting to see some players respond so favorably under difficult circumstances.
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PHOENIX-OKLAHOMA CITY
MORE OR LESS
Devin Booker LESS THAN 26.5 POINTS
The Suns have been the surprise of the bubble, winning all five games in Orlando, and Booker has continued to score as usual, averaging 29.4 points per game in those five victories. Oklahoma City’s defense is strong, allowing 108.1 points per game, which ranks seventh in the league and that might be enough to keep Booker under wraps…in relative terms.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander LESS THAN 23.5 POINTS
This is a big number for the Canadian guard who has scored fewer than 20 points per game this season and is averaging just 16.5 per game in the bubble. Phoenix’s defense ranks 20th overall but it’s fair to note that the Suns’ defensive results have been better in Orlando, so that ought to make it tough on SGA.
DALLAS-UTAH
MORE OR LESS
Donovan Mitchell LESS THAN 24.5 POINTS
Although Mitchell scored 35 (on 33 shots!) in Saturday’s Double-OT loss to Denver, he’s a little banged-up so might not be at 100% for Monday’s match-up with the Mavericks. In general, the Mavericks are an average defensive team and that might lean towards less than but with Mitchell’s health in question, the lean turns into more of a shove.
Tim Hardaway Jr. LESS THAN 19.5 POINTS
While Hardaway has scored more than 20 points in two of the five bubble contests, his other three games were single-digit scoring performances so if there is a direction to tilt in this game, against a Utah team with a sound defensive record, it has to be towards the under.
TORONTO-MILWAUKEE
MORE OR LESS
Giannis Antetokounmpo MORE THAN 28.5 POINTS
The best player in the league is averaging 29.8 points per game, boosted by the 31.0 points per game that he has averaged in Orlando. The Raptors have a defensive record that is second to none and that gives them a fighting chance against Giannis, but it’s no guarantee. In two games against Milwaukee this season, the Raptors have allowed Giannis to score 36 points in Milwaukee and 19 in Toronto.
Pascal Siakam LESS THAN 20.5 POINTS
Spicy P is averaging 17.8 points per game in the bubble, and that’s after putting up 26 in Sunday’s win against Memphis. Milwaukee isn’t as strong defensively as the Raptors, but they’re still a Top 10 defense which is not what Siakam needs to build momentum in the second game of a back-to-back situation.
RAPID FIRE
Fred Van Vleet +0.5 assists vs. Kyle Lowry
The Raptors have the flexibility of having a pair of point guards who can run the offense and Van Vleet has emerged as more of a playmaker in Orlando, averaging 6.8 assists per game, compared to 6.2 per game for Lowry. Getting the extra half assist as the underdog moves the needle in Van Vleet’s direction.
INDIANA-MIAMI
MORE OR LESS
T.J. Warren MORE THAN 20.5 POINTS
This number makes sense if it’s just regular T.J. Warren and not Bubble T.J. Warren because the bubble version is averaging 34.8 points per game in five games in Orlando. He does have a foot injury that puts his status for Monday’s game into question but he has turned into a big-time scorer, one that should be able to get loose, even against a Miami team that is above-average defensively.
Jimmy Butler LESS THAN 18.5 POINTS
Butler is also dealing with a foot injury and has missed the past three games. He has averaged 20.2 points per game this season but even if he’s able to play, he will face a Pacers team that allowed the fourth-fewest points per game.
DENVER-L.A. LAKERS
MORE OR LESS
Anthony Davis LESS THAN 24.5 POINTS
The bubble has not been kind to AD, who has scored a total of 34 points in the past three games. Matched up against a Denver team that is better than average defensively doesn’t seem like the place for him to get loose, though Davis has put up 30.0 points per game in three games against the Nuggets this season.
Nikola Jokic MORE THAN 20.5 POINTS
The Nuggets center has averaged 22.4 points per game in the bubble, up a bit from his overall regular-season scoring numbers, putting up at least 25 points in three of Denver’s five games in Orlando. The Lakers are strong defensively, though they have not played particularly well in the bubble which leaves an opening for Jokic to score.
RAPID FIRE
Michael Porter -1.5 rebounds vs. LeBron James
LeBron sat out the last Lakers game but he has upped his rebounding average, grabbing 9.6 per game in the bubble. Porter Jr. has suddenly become a big-time player for the Nuggets. In the past four games, he has averaged 29.3 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. It’s obviously a small sample but the Nuggets are probably more invested in Porter Jr. playing and producing in these games than the Lakers are in LeBron, who they can afford to rest if that suits their long-term plan.
