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The King’s new series on hot fantasy football topics for the 2020 season focuses on separate divisions in each edition. We will examine some of the biggest burning questions per team as you plan for your upcoming drafts.
In this installment, we tackle some significant fantasy issues in the NFC South. There is a potential standout TE taking over in Atlanta, a WR battle in Carolina, hope for a superstar resurgence in New Orleans, and an RB trying not to lose his job in Tampa Bay.
You have the questions, the King provides the answers.
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Atlanta Falcons: Will Hayden Hurst emerge as a top fantasy tight end?
Engel: The Falcons had been fans of Hurst since he came out of South Carolina in 2018. Atlanta was reportedly hoping Hurst would fall to them with the 26th pick in the first round. In a scenario that many fantasy players can feel empathy, Atlanta was “sniped” when Baltimore took Hurst at No. 25 overall.
When it became apparent that the Falcons were going to lose Austin Hooper, they dealt for Hurst in March. He had become a lesser utilized option than expected with the Ravens and the Falcons obviously still think highly of him. Hurst seems like a perfect fit to replace Hooper, who was a fantasy TE1 through the first 10 weeks of the 2019 season. He was averaging 17.2 Fantasy Points Per Game when he went down with an MCL sprain.
Hooper and Hurst have many of the same measurables. Hooper is 6-4, 254 pounds and Hurst checks in at 6-5, 250. As you can see from the images via playerprofiler.com, many of their workout metrics coming out of college were very similar. According to published reports, though, the Falcons see Hurst as more of a speed threat and may utilize him more downfield than Hooper was. At age 26, Hurst is over a year older than Hooper, who has two more years of pro experience and is more proven. They seem nearly even in many regards.
Hooper caught 57 of his 75 passes and five TDs when the Falcons were behind in games last season. If the Falcons use Hurst similarly when they are trailing, he could average more than the 10.5 Yards Per Catch Hooper did last season. It’s apparent that Hurst was brought in to ease into the old Hooper role and he has some upside in terms of making some bigger plays even if he catches fewer passes. A projection of 65 receptions, 800 yards, and six TDs seems reasonable.
The fantasy community at large has not caught on with Hurst yet, as he is the 16th TE off the board according to the latest ADPs. I have him at TE7 in my latest player rankings, six spots ahead of Hooper, who gets a big QB downgrade in Cleveland. Other experts and high stakes players have been taking Hurst as a top-10 TE. Hurst is now with an organization that wanted him all along and has a defined role of productivity waiting for him. I would not be surprised to see him finish in the top five at his position this season and he’s a terrific TE value.
Carolina Panthers: Who will emerge as the No. 2 target for Teddy Bridgewater?
Engel: As Teddy Bridgewater enters to hopefully stabilize the QB situation, he has some intriguing weaponry to work with. He should be a more efficient passer than Cam Newton and will be an obvious improvement over Kyle Allen. Considering D.J. Moore almost reached 90 catches and 1,200 yards with shaky QB play last year, Bridgewater can potentially help boost his numbers even more. That makes Moore a very appealing fantasy WR2 for 2020.
Bridgewater has never been known as much of a downfield playmaker. Last year, he averaged 10.4 Yards Per Completion in five starts for New Orleans. Over a full season that would have tied him for 30th in the league in the category. But Bridgewater lacked any pure deep threats, and he will have both Curtis Samuel and the newly acquired Robby Anderson to work with. One of those two should become the clear No. 2 target for Bridgewater, as TE Ian Thomas will be a first-time NFL starter and has much to prove.
This is a pivotal season for Samuel, who has averaged 11.4 YPC so far in his career. He has been expected to fare better in that regard. Spotty QB play, though, can certainly be a justification and he has caught 11 TD passes in the past two seasons. Anderson, though, has averaged 14.8 YPC in four seasons dealing with some up and down QB play himself. Neither receiver has reached the 65-catch mark in a season yet. Anderson does have 18 TD catches in his past three seasons.
Both players open up unique options for Bridgewater to attempt to make plays downfield like never before. He has never been equipped with so much speed at wideout. One WR between Anderson and Samuel will prevail as the more dependable one in other types of situations. Anderson does have a height advantage, though (6-3 compared to 5-11) and was signed to a two-year, $20 million dollar deal. That puts him in the top 25 at the position in salary.
If the Panthers thought Samuel could be counted on as a second WR, they would not have added Anderson. They may still value Samuel as their third wideout and he may fit well there. But Anderson was brought in at a significant salary to hopefully be the top complement to Moore and a third target overall behind Moore and Christian McCaffrey. Anderson should be the later WR5 depth choice in fantasy football. He should be a good streamer for bye weeks and injuries when the matchup is right.
New Orleans Saints: Can Alvin Kamara rebound to superstar form?
Engel: It is widely accepted that leg injuries robbed Kamara of much of his better form last season. He did not make defenders look foolish nearly as often and lacked the juke and spark of his 2018 campaign when he finished as RB4. That year, he averaged 26.4 FFPG.
In 2018, Kamara scored 18 TDs from scrimmage, a major reason why he was such a fantasy standout. Last year he scored only six times, and his receiving yards slid from 709 to 535. He actually averaged 4.7 Yards Per Carry, compared to 4.6 in 2018.
So the obvious keys to Kamara reclaiming his fantasy superstar status are regaining the lost receiving yards and TD totals. The reception totals have remained so reliable, with exactly 81 per season in three years so far. It seems logical that the receiving numbers should rise again. He had 826 yards in his rookie season. The one item that may spur some uncertainty is whether he can replicate his 2018 rushing TD total of 14. He had five TD catches and four in 2018 and should get back in that range after totaling just one receiving score last season.
Kamara rushed for eight TDs as a rookie before busting out for six more in his second season. Only four other RBs besides Kamara have rushed for 14 TDs in the past three seasons. So expecting Kamara to reach such a mark again may be a bit much. Latavius Murray is still in the picture to steal some TD runs. So 10 to 12 TD runs may be more of a true expectation.
Kamara can still total 14 to 16 TDs, though, and that is not a major drop-off from his 2018 season. So he is well worth a top four overall pick again.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Can Ronald Jones II hold onto the starting RB job?
Engel: Once again, we are hearing positive preseason buzz about Ronald Jones. He has reportedly put on more weight, is working on improving more as a pass-catcher and a pass blocker. Yup, heard that kind of talk last season.
Jones definitely improved last year, but considering how awful he looked as a rookie, he simply had to get better. But he averaged 4.2 YPC, which was 31st in the league, and he caught just 33 passes. He rushed for 80 yards in a game just once until the season finale. He caught more than three passes once. Jones had more than 35 receiving yards twice. So is there really anything to be highly optimistic about or a solid reason to expect significant improvements? I think not.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn, a strong signal to Jones that Tampa Bay has his potential replacement in-house now. Vaughn is a tougher runner than Jones and has more TD potential. Jones averaged just 2.9 YPC in the red zone last year. The rookie is a respectable receiver, but like Jones, he has blocking concerns. Plus, he has already missed important camp work that was wiped out and now he is dealing with COVID concerns.
Tampa Bay was still on the hunt for a veteran RB and signed LeSean McCoy. While the former fantasy standout is well past his best days, his addition is another indication that the Buccaneers do not truly trust Jones. Vaughn may need more time to acclimate and now Dare Ogunbowale's role as a receiving specialist is threatened.
Tampa Bay may now be ready to employ a full-blown committee with Jones, McCoy and Vaughn. The appeal of Vaughn takes a hit for sure, even though he still may become the lead RB down the line. You should not draft Jones as anything more than a higher end RB4, which is the same territory as Vaughn. The Buccaneers have now sent two messages to Jones about his true worth, so he is a player to avoid again in 2020.
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