OPS Overachievers: Using xOPS to Judge Performance

Nicklaus Gaut looks at the differences between xOPS and OPS in order to give more context to Statcast expected stat overachievers from last season. Which players are overvalued based on ADP and which should you not worry about?

We've already dug into xOPS by looking at the biggest underachievers from last year. Now, it's time to examine the other side of the coin - the less shiny side.

Many might believe that wOBA is the stat you should be looking for and people much smarter than I have been duking out this debate for a long time. But time and time again it seems that OPS comes out ahead, even though Tom Tango probably disagrees. For me, the differences come down more to a debate over splitting mathematical hairs rather than one or the other being a far superior statistic for judging a player's overall performance. Judging statistics isn't always just about r-squares and correlations. Sometimes ease of use (and calculation) will win the day for fantasy players.

Baseball Savant has wOBA and xwOBA (and obviously OPS) but xOPS remains an unlisted number, even though we have the ingredients needed in xOBP and xSLG. Perhaps this is a continuation of Tango's blood-feud with OPS or perhaps he just doesn't care enough to do addition for people that's simple enough for any fourth-grader. Which means it should be triple-easy for people who had to repeat the level twice. So you'll be in good hands. Today we'll be looking at the biggest OPS overachievers according to xOPS.

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The xOPS - OPS Leaderboard

Let's take a look at the top-30 negative differences between a player's actual OPS in 2019 and their expected-OPS and see who shakes out among the leaders. We'll also look at their 2019 ADP and compare it to where they finished on RazzBall's player-rater to see who failed and rewarded their owners the most.

Keep in mind that in order to not guess about unknowable things like "how many baseball games will be played post-pandemic?", all analysis will be operating in a "COVID does not exist" alternate timeline, not the current darkest timeline we're currently living in.

Can These xOPS Over-Achievers Keep It Up in 2020?

Byron Buxton - OF, MIN

Just as the OPS Underachievers chart was validated by Mike Trout's appearance, so has the above been validated by the appearance of Byron Buxton.

Fernando Tatis Jr. - SS, SD

Oh no, Nick. You're not really trying to reignite the "Fernando Tatis Jr. is overrated" debate, are you? No, I'm not. Tatis is awesome and his spot at the top of this list doesn't make me think otherwise. Even if we made his .819 xOPS his actual OPS, it would still be the 13th-highest mark among shortstops in 2019 and Tatis had 22 HR and 16 SB in 372 PA at just 20 years old. Detractors might point to his .259 xBA and an unsustainable .410 BABIP but players with elite speed often run much higher BABIP than their slower counterparts. And having a 29.3 sprint-speed that was in the top-5% of baseball qualifies as being elite.

Willie Calhoun - OF, TEX

I seriously considered cutting this list off at the top-25 just so I wouldn't have to besmirch the good name of the Groundskeeper, Willie Calhoun. I wish I was kidding.

Mike Tauchman - OF, NYY

We successfully activated the google-alert that Eric Samulski has set for Rougned Odor in the OPS underachievers piece and now we get to do the same to Alex Chamberlain. Mike Tauchman was traded to the Yankees and finally got his chance to shine in New York, hitting 13 HR with a .277 AVG in 296 PA, with 47 RBI and 46 runs scored. Not too shabby for half of a season. His expected-statistics don't paint as rosy of a picture, however, with an xBA almost 30-points lower and a .412 xSLG that carried a 92-point deficit compared to his actual .504 SLG.

A big point in Tauchman's favor when it comes to playing time is his overlooked elite defense. His outs-above-average ranking placing him ninth among all outfielders, with his 6% added success-rate to balls hit to him ranking him second only to Kevin Kiermaier. Unfortunately, Tauchman's playing time could be squeezed with the delay of the season allowing Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge to heal up. Ha-ha-ha-ha, I got you! Giancarlo Stanton being healthy...I crack myself up.

Alex Bregman - 3B, HOU

Never forget that the biggest winners of the current global pandemic could be the Astros, as we're all currently being deprived of the 2020 Houston Tour of Shame. Does anyone else ever think about how worthless Jeff Luhnow's "suspension" is given that his punishment consists of basically doing what the entire country is currently doing? Or wonder whether or not your local voodoo doll shop is considered an essential business? Me neither.

What was I talking about? Oh yeah...Alex Bregman may have had the fourth-highest negative difference in his OPS and xOPS but I'm not worried because Houston's third baseman seems to almost have a sixth sense when he's in the box. He's so good that sometimes it almost seems like he knows what pitch is coming. Simply breathtaking.

Brett Gardner - OF, NYY

I'm a big fan of earning profits off the back of boring old guys like Brett Gardner but his .691 xOPS does start tickling some alarm bells. Gardner had a career-high 28 HR at age-36 and posted a career-high 13.6-degree LA that was a big jump from the 8.4 LA and 9.2 LA from the previous two years. He pulled the ball a lot more, finishing with a 44.3% Pull% that was almost a 13-point jump from the previous year but his fly-ball rate stayed steady.

ATC projects him for 505 PA but the under could hit if Judge and Stanton are healthy (I kid, I kid ),  Tauchman keeps hitting while flashing that leather and Miguel Andujar hits himself back into the mix. Fortunately, Gardner has a 321 ADP in NFBC that is just silly low and carries little to no risk.

A Little Deeper Now

Ketel Marte (2B/OF, ARI)

2019 Season: 628 PA - 37 HR - 97 R - 92 RBI - 10 SB - .329 AVG - .981  OPS (.883  xOPS)

2020 ATC Projections: 630 PA - 24 HR - 79 R - 89 RBI - 10 SB - .295 AVG - .863 OPS

Marte is at an important fantasy inflection point in 2020 - or 2021 if we are indeed living in the darkest timeline. If he keeps the changes from 2019 and has similar success, then his new offensive profile will be tempered by the fires of repeatability and the 26-year-old will keep living near his current 37.9 ADP, if not higher. A step back towards the Ketel of year's past and he'll get churned right back down the ADP trail. That's what most projection systems seem to think, with the ATC projected line from above right in line with all of the others. However, many of those projections are basing their results off of Marte 2.0 from 2019 but also version 1.o from the years before. If 2.o is now the true version then projections aren't going to accurately capture what he'll be going forward.

Believing in one great year over the larger body of work is usually not the best idea. But sometimes it's not just an outlier, sometimes players actually just change. Given all of the data that we now have access to, it's easier to separate the wheat from the chaff. Does Marte's 100-point difference in OPS and xOPS portend a severe downgrade in 2020's production? Or is the Marte from 2019 the Marte we should expect from now on?

Give Me Something To Believe In

There's a lot. Because Marte didn't just put up big numbers, he made across-the-board changes that seem to signal someone joining the revolution. His launch angle almost doubled, going from 5.7 degrees in 2018 to 11.5 degrees in 2019, with his ground-ball rate dropping almost eight-points to 43.7%. Unsurprisingly, Marte saw an increase in fly balls, going from a 19.4% FB% on Baseball Savant* to a 23.7% rate. It's a revolution, baby!

*These numbers might be lower than you're used to seeing on Fangraphs and elsewhere but that's because their FB% includes pop-ups, while Savant's does not.

Marte must've spent his winter at tug-of-war camp because Ketel now has some serious pull,  jumping seven-points to a 43.7% pull-rate.

His average exit-velocity rose for the third straight year, posting a career-high 89.8 mph EV. And his hard-hit rates on both Fangraphs and Savant were career-highs, going from 36% HH% to 42.1% HH on FG and from a 36.7% Hard% to 40% on Savant. Looks like Ketel rocks the baseball, as well as the casbah.

Just to pile on, Marte had a career-high barrel-rate and has almost doubled his rate each of the previous two seasons, going from 2.7% in 2017 to 5.3% in 2018 to 9.3% in 2019.

Reasons For Doubt

Calling for a repeat of his .329 AVG might be a tad aggressive given his career-high .342 BABIP but Marte also posted a .299 xBA that was in the top-6% of the league.

Believing that Marte's approach will revert back to pre-2019? I don't have a lot else because this is a special circumstance, with a player who had massive success after seeming to have made a purposeful and dramatic change to how he hits. Given the breadth of changes, this seems like a whole new player. And one I don't have any shares of because every draft I was in had someone who jumped him early. I don't blame them.

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