RADIO
Kev Mahserejian takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 18. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.
Today's piece covers a set of players who either should not be available on waivers or will return back there soon. Most of the earlier editions of this recurring buy or sell article have included several universally owned players whose values have been manipulated enough by early-season performances. Unfortunately, as we get deeper into the year, the regression fairies come to ruin every savvy owner's fun.
Nevertheless, there is nothing worse than seeing one of your guys continually underperform. However, if that is the case, eight times out-of-ten it is most prudent to hold on until they at least get hot to then sell. Contrarily, do not buy high, unless it is in your best interest to win now and that player fills a particular need.
Anyway, these buys and sells are where your focus should be for this upcoming week. Best of luck dealing.
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Undervalued Players - Week 18
These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.
Mike Foltynewicz - SP, ATL
26% owned
Since his most recent send-down to Triple-A, Folty has started to find some sort of groove. In 30-and-two-thirds innings, he holds a 2.93 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts. Most significantly, he has not given up a home run, which was the main reason for his demotion. Folty started out the year very poorly, seemingly due to a nagging elbow injury. His velocity was down through his first few starts, then jumped back up after a few weeks. However, he just was not hitting his spots and was clearly frustrated with his efforts on the mound.
There's no guarantee that he will be effective once he's recalled in the next few weeks, but given that he was likely dropped in most leagues, a free add off of the waiver wire could not hurt.
Zack Wheeler - SP, NYM
89% owned
The Wheels on Zack have fallen off for most of this season. Wheeler is a disappointment but those peripherals are still preettttyyy nice. His strikeout rate is the highest of his career and the walk rate is the lowest. It is fair to claim that a lot of his issues are a direct result of the Mets' poor defense (his 66 percent left on-base percentage is roughly 10 points lower than his career average). Amed Rosario's performance at shortstop is painful to watch, and there are several others out of position for the sake of their bat playing every day.
Wheeler's been rough, and thus should be relatively cheap. As long as the Mets deal him next weekend, his value should be going up (unless the destination is Toronto). Even more hitter-friendly parks like Fenway or Yankee Stadium should be upgrades given the defensive value behind him. Honestly, just getting away from the New York Mess might be an upgrade in and of itself given their volatile nature. Changes of scenery can be as important for the mental as anything else.
Manuel Margot - OF, SD
20% owned
This one is for those steal-needy teams. Margot has been moved up to second in the order and deserves some attention. It is typically tougher to steal when a batter is hitting towards the bottom of the order. His HRs and RBI are not going to be impressive, but the run/steal production should increase. Margot's batting average is very average and won't hurt any owners, which is all you can ask from a speed option. Something of note, Margot is a perfect 15-for-15 on steal attempts this year, more attempts could not hurt one bit with this type of efficiency...
He's a viable depth OF add in most 10-plus team leagues and can be dropped if he hits an extended cold streak. Mostly preferable in roto formats.
Overvalued Players - Week 18
Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag and could even be dropped if they have not produced enough.
Ramon Laureano - OF, OAK
78% owned
Laureano is a great player and was undervalued going into the year. His cold start created a ton of non-believers and just to be clear, this is by no means intended to draw him out as overrated, just an over-performer. Laureano is currently ranked as a top-30 player in roto leagues and has set himself up as a great sell-high. Although he doesn't have extreme name-value, seeing 20 homers and 12 steals with a great average should grease the wheels for any prospective trade partner.
Look to get back an underperforming OF and maybe an SP2 in return to take advantage of Laureano who has set himself up as quite the redraft asset. Dynasty owners should hold on unless a massive offer comes their way. Laureano just turned 25 and looks to have a very bright future ahead of him.
Jake Odorizzi - SP, MIN
79% owned
Odorizzi's been roughed up in July, but still holds a solid 3.80 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. That is certainly still a solid amount of perceived value. His IL stint was short, but in no way is a reason for his regression. Odorizzi's been lucky almost all season long and will be prime value after his next start Tuesday against the Marlins.
Despite a nice schedule for Twins' pitchers through the rest of the season, along with Odorizzi's 2019 velocity boost, he is still a hard sell given regression's ugly head. His 4.72 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA are as average as they come. If you can find a nice return here, pull the trigger.
