RADIO
Hello and welcome back to Horse For The Course! Bryson DeChambeau won a tightly contested Memorial tournament in a three-man playoff Sunday. This week's PGA Tour stop takes us to my home state of Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Classic that will once again be held at TPC Southwind in Memphis. This tournament is the last event before the U.S. Open and generally has a weaker than average group of players, but this year's field is surprisingly strong, with four of the top 20 players in the world rankings slated to tee it up. A bit of apprehension is always in play the week before a major, as we have seen a high amount of withdrawals for this tournament in previous years. Keep an eye on the RotoBaller News Feed this week for constantly updating player information. This will be the 30th time that TPC Southwind has played host to the St. Jude, so we have loads of course history to sort through this week. Let's dig in!
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. This is not a traditional picks column, but rather an attempt to pinpoint players that have outstanding results at a specific course. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: TPC Southwind - Par 70 - 7,244 Yards
This former Memphis dairy farm has turned out to be an excellent golf course. The long-time host of the St. Jude tournament will be receiving an upgrade of sorts next year, as it will become a World Golf Championship venue. Water will be a factor for the players this week. TPC Southwind winds through lakes, streams, and ponds. The Par-3 11th hole is almost a "baby brother" to the famous 17th at TPC Sawgrass and utilizes a similar island green. With water hazards lurking and almost 100 bunkers in play, players must be precise. Accurate iron players have fared well at TPC Southwind throughout the years.
The Horse
Daniel Berger (DraftKings - $10,000 & FanDuel - $11,800 )
I'm probably not going out on a limb by naming Daniel Berger this week's horse, but this column relies on course history and Berger has it in spades. He enters this week as the two-time, back-to-back defending champion of the FedEx St. Jude Classic. That's a pretty impressive resume for the young 25-year-old. Berger took home the 2017 title with a winning score of 10-under par in a tightly contested battle. His 2016 victory came a bit easier, as Berger cruised to a three-shot win at 13-under. Its safe to say the Berger feels at home in Memphis, seven of his last eight rounds at TPC Southwind have been scores in the 60's.
Berger ranked out as my top choice this week due to his two wins at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, but he is far from a one-trick pony. He has missed only one cut in the 2018 season and has an impressive eight Top-25 finishes this year. Berger's bread and butter is his stellar iron play, which helps to explain his success at TPC Southwind. While his numbers are down a bit from 2017, Berger still ranks 42nd in Strokes Gained: Approach The Green on the PGA Tour in 2018. He sits at 16th in approaches from 125-150 yards and 20th from 175-200 yard, distances that he will see often this week.
Berger's high price tags will scare lots of players away this week...he sits at $10,000 on DraftKings and $11,800 on FanDuel. This can be used to our advantage in large-field GPPs, as I think the high price and his recent pedestrian performances in his last couple of tournaments will drive Berger's ownership down. The argument can be made that Berger is not an "elite" player and doesn't ever warrant such a high fantasy price, but I would suggest that Berger's performances at the FedEx St. Jude Classic the last two years are the very definition of elite.
The Ponies
Brooks Koepka (DK - $11,100 & FD - $12,400 )
For those that want to talk about elite players, let me introduce you to Mr. Koepka. The defending U.S. Open champion has a wealth of talent that rivals the best players in the game. His course history at TPC Southwind is limited, but extremely impressive. In four career appearances Koepka has never missed a cut at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. He finished tied for 37th last year, second in 2016, tied for third in 2015, and tied for 19th in 2014. We can see by these finishes that the young star is very comfortable at TPC Southwind.
Koepka has missed the majority of the 2018 season with a lingering wrist injury. He eased back into competition at the Zurich Classic team event at the end of April. Koepka has improved with every subsequent start; tying for 42nd in his first real competitive start at the Wells Fargo Championship, a tie for 11th at The Players Championship that included a final round 63, and a heartbreaking second at the Fort Worth Invitational where he shot 63 in both the second and final rounds. We can see with these scores and finishes that Koepka has not only recovered from his injury, but he has come back to the PGA Tour with a vengeance.
We will have to make some sacrifices to fit Koepka in our lineups this week, as his price sits below only Dustin Johnson on both sites. These type of PGA tournaments that have somewhat of a lesser-talented field usually lend themselves to a "Stars and Scrubs" approach to lineup building, that will certainly be the case if we want to put Brooks Koepka in play this week. For instance on DraftKings, if we start our lineups with Koepka, we are left with only about $7,800/avg per player to fill out the rest of our roster. Even with the price stress that it causes, I'm willing to roll the dice on Koepka in this field and will have him in several GPP lineups.
Braden Thornberry (DK - $7,700 & FD - $8,600 )
I'm going a little off the grid here with Braden Thornberry. Thornberry is a junior at Ole Miss and is the defending NCAA Individual Champion. The 21-year-old owns 11 NCAA titles, the most individual wins in Ole Miss history and is currently number 2 in the World Amateur Golf Rankings. It is not often that an amateur, no matter how accomplished, should be included in a column that makes picks based on course history, but hear me out and lets play connect the dots; Thornberry attends Ole Miss University and is from...Olive Branch, Mississippi. Olive Branch is just 22 miles outside of...Memphis, Tennessee. Memphis is the home of...TPC Southwind. TPC Southwind is the longtime host of...the FedEx St. Jude Classic.
While the geographical connection is a nice piece of the puzzle, I'm not willing to go on that alone. To put it simply, this kid can flat-out play. Thornberry owns a 69.88 Golfstat scoring average this season. He has demonstrated that he can compete in the professional ranks, playing in four PGA and Web.com events and making the cut in three. Thornberry's best finish as a pro came in 2017 at, you guessed it...the FedEx St. Jude Classic, where he finished in a tie for fourth at the same course that hosts this week's event. It was the best finish by an amateur on the PGA Tour in 2017.
I have to admit, I was a tiny bit disappointed when I saw Thornberry's price tag this week. I was hoping he would fall somewhere in the $7,200-ish range on DraftKings, but they priced him up to $7,700. Though the price is a bit higher than I anticipated, I'm still more than willing to roll with the kid in large-field GPPs. His college coach calls Thornberry's short game, "...the best I've ever seen, and it's not even close."
Ben Crane (DK - $7,400 & FD - $9,100 )
As is quickly becoming tradition at 'Horse For The Course', my last selection is a value play that might be a bit unconventional. This week's "Dark Horse" is Ben Crane. Crane is one of those guys that seemed to peak several years ago, but the veteran is still grinding away in 2018. Crane has actually played well over the last couple of months, making seven consecutive cuts and showing some signs of life on the PGA Tour's Texas swing by finishing 11th at the Valero Texas Open and eighth at the Fort Worth Invitational. He will never be considered an exciting or spectacular player, but Crane is solid and has won five times on the PGA Tour over his career.
Crane has had a tremendous amount of success at TPC Southwind. He won the FedEx St. Jude Classic title in 2014 and has five Top-20's at TPC Southwind in his career, including a tie for 10th last year. Crane makes his living with his short game. He is an excellent putter and ranks 1st on the PGA Tour in Sand Save Percentage, that's a pretty important stat when playing a course this week that has over 80 bunkers!
Crane is priced at a very reasonable $7,400 on DraftKings this week. He offers the salary cap relief that we need to squeeze Brooks Koepka in our lineup. Crane isn't the type of player that I feel comfortable going all-in on, but he is borderline cash game playable. I will definitely be heavy on him in GPPs this week, as he offers lots of cut-making safety with an outside chance at a Top-10. The depth of this year's field is a bit stronger than we've seen at the FedEx in the past, so that does hamper Crane's upside a bit. Bottom line, I love his course history and recent form, he is an excellent value play in a week that value is hard to come by.
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